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galenapass wrote:
It sounds like you are making up a lot of "facts" to support an argument about m43. Based upon what I have read, these opinions of yours do not seem to be grounded in reality.
Here is what Olympus has to say:
"Olympus’ camera division amassed an operating profit of 1.1 billion yen (approximately US$8.8 million) this past quarter, a massive improvement considering a year ago the numbers showed a 1.9 billion yen (approximately US$15.2 million) loss."
"This impressive profit is helped thanks to a 26% increase in mirrorless camera sales year-over-year. Compact camera sales have dropped 11%, but sales revenue has remained the same thanks to consumers opting for the company’s more high-end compact camera models."
http://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2015/08/06/olympus-quarterly-numbers-show-profits-boosted-by-e-m5-ii-and-high-end-comp
Sony released this:
"Sales increased 3.5% year-on-year (a 5% decrease on a constant currency basis) to 170.4 billion yen (1,396 million U.S. dollars), primarily due to the impact of foreign exchange rates and an improvement in the product mix of digital cameras reflecting a shift to high value-added models, partially offset by a decrease in unit sales of digital cameras reflecting a contraction of the market."
Most camera makers are all saying the same thing. Consumer interest is in the higher end models. That is FF, APS-C or m43. Oly pro lenses, which have been selling well, are at the $1000 mark.
In this thread (https://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/1387780/3) I posted a graph from CIPA numbers which shows that ~ 25% of all digital cameras shipped world-wide are mirrorless.
Let's review things you have said:
"Sub FF buyers are cheap"--->manufactures say the trend is for higher end equipment and that is for all sensor sizes.
"m43 is interesting to standalone alt FM camera buyers"--->Olympus seem to be seeing some growth in m43, in addition, 1/4 of all cameras shipped are mirrorless. Granted that 1/4 is not all m43 but it is surely larger than "FM alt camera buyers". Moreover, in my local camera store, there are a lot of m43 models for sale. Even from a going-to-the-store-and-looking-around common sense stand point, this statement does not make any sense.
"The only segment that doesn't complain about prices and seems stable are FF and bigger"--->.I have not seen any data to support this.
Overall, I think you are constructing an artificial argument. Current trends in cameras are not based on senor size, alone rather they are based on a general decline (affecting all cameras) as more people switch to the cell phone for their photos. FF cameras are also suffering because of this. Now, overlapping this general decline we have other dynamics happening as well. For example, mirrorless vs. DSLR, and the general switch to higher end equipment. This is not a FF vs. m43 or APS-C sensor size contest. It is much more complicated than that, and within this multivariate environment, Olympus has reported good results for the first time in years. It would be a hard sell that this observation supports the impending demise of m43....Show more →
I'm basing all of this on history. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. It's been written before. As Ratty said, this market is collapsing. There may be short periods of upward blips, but the trajectory is through the floor. History shows anytime major technological or social changes occurs, the old platforms disappear faster than they appear. History rhymes or echoes. Medium format, tube TV, compact disc, vinyl, mini computers, flip phones, Walkman, iPods, digital cameras. They take a long time to build up, but then they disappear a lot faster. Blu-ray disappeared almost overnight.
I don't need to resort to day to day, month to month, year to year data. One thing is ingrained in human nature, we repeat over and over. The implosion in standalone digital FF and lower cannot be stopped, just like medium format or film before it. My thesis that FF will be the only 35mm category size sensor standing is based on what happened in medium format. That market is on life support, selling only a few thousand units a year. There are now just 4 medium format makers, and that's probably too many. They survive on outrageous priced $40k backs and $5-10k lenses because the volume are so low. I don't think the A7RII price getting bumped up above the A7R was just due to cost R&D. Some of it is probably due to positioning. Getting ready for when all photo equipment prices must go up due to shrinking volume.
I'm basing my prediction for m43 and APS-C on my belief that history is experiencing another echo. Can m43 and APS-C survive the day when prices skyrocket due to lower volume? Based on that market's complaint about the high prices of Sony gear, I don't think it can. You can take a wait and see approach if you want, but I don't think this is the one example where humans don't repeat history. There's nothing special about the standalone camera market that makes me think it's immune. There is no scenario where this ends well for any of the players involved. Even Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Leica will also feel the pain.
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