gdanmitchell
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 p.7 #11 · 46.1 MP Canon EOS-3D X To Be Announced Before PhotoPlus ? | |
You are right that this raises more than technical questions - in fact, I think the idea qualifies as being disruptive for Canon's line-up. (Admittedly there is much that I/we don't know, so yes, I'm speculating wildly.)
Despite all of the logic about 20-22MP full frame cameras producing really excellent image quality - which, in fact, they do - there is now a fine 36MP full frame camera at a price lower than Canon's best 22MP camera. Now I most certainly am not one to "jump ship" (which more often than not is more accurately described as "jumping the gun") but the marketing reality is that Canon can't just go on calling 22MP the "sweet spot" and expect that all will be well.
But I don't expect them to do that anyway. I'm completely confident that they have sensors that have much higher photosite density that what we see now in their full-frame cameras. This isn't any wild-eyed bit of craziness - just by extrapolating the density of current Canon cropped sensor bodies we can get to some very high MP count sensors.
However, it is reasonable to wonder how this plays out against Canon's marketing plans. For a while I had an idea that Canon would increase the MP of the 5D bodies - but that clearly did not happen. The 5D3 is a wonderful camera with lots of excellent features... but it obviously has essentially the same photo site density as the 5D3.
I also wondered if Canon would introduce a higher MP body in the 1-series line. Despite the careful wording that some took to mean that the 18 MP 1Dx would represent a unified single-body 1-series lineup, if you read more carefully you will see that Canon never actually said quite that. So they could certainly - and probably should! - introduce a 1Ds style higher-MP 1-series body before too long. Let's say that it is a 46MP sensor body.
That would certainly sell into the high end space, but that is a fairly small portion of the market. Faced with perhaps a choice between "upgrading" from a $2000 5D2 to a $8000 or so 1-series type body... I think that while some will swallow hard and buy it, quite a few would simply be unwilling to go there. And even if a person is Canon-centric enough to be unwilling to consider a brand switch to Nikon and the attendant need to replace bunches of lenses and flashes and other stuff, the fact of a much less expensive Nikon alternative that produces equivalent image quality would certainly disincline a lot of folks towards the higher MP Canon model.
So, what about a "3D" or equivalent? This would have to not only have the same or greater MP than the D800 but in order to justify a price that would have to be higher than the D800 it would have to be a dynamite camera in other ways as well, and exceed the capabilities and features of the current 5D3... and sell most likely at an even higher price. In which case we are right back to that problem of the target market for such a camera in a world where the D800 exists.
What about a "5D4" (or "5D3+" or whatever) as a replacement to the 5D3? This creates an interesting problem as well, even leaving aside for the moment the unsavory taste that would leave in the mouths of recent 5D3 purchasers. With a very capable high MP camera (let's say between 36MP and the mythical 46MP) at a 5D3 price point, Canon would be a bit better off than when people stopped buying the most recent 1Ds body when they realized that the 5D2 produced equivalent IQ, but they would still find it very difficult to market any higher-end high MP body with such a capable camera at the 5D level.
I have little (actually, no) doubt that Canon will produce a higher MP full frame body before long - they really have almost no choice in the matter - but I wonder how this will play out in the rest of the their model lineup...
Dan
splathrop wrote:
I have a marketing-related question.
Assume for the sake of argument that Canon is in a bit of bind. The D800 is not only a formidable competitor at a lowish price, it is also tending to freeze upgrade decisions for some photographers who don't even want one. (That includes me; the D800 shows what can happen, and Canon hasn't done it, so I'm sticking with Canon until they do it, but otherwise, not buying any new body Canon shows me.) And maybe Canon doesn't have current access to sensor technology to match the D800. That would be a marketing crisis for Canon.
One possible solution would be to pack 7D resolution onto full frame, and out-pixel Nikon. It sounds like this rumor could be based on that possibility. But how do you market a product like that? Given the choice between 7D image quality writ large, or D800 image quality at an identical price, which would you choose? I think I would take the D800, especially if Nikon fixed the live view. To me that looks like a risky gamble for Canon. If it failed, it could trigger a mass migration of people like me to Nikon.
Canon, I think, might choose to fuzz up the question. They could try to do that by making the new 46MP camera a full-featured high end competitor to the 1Dx—a 1Dxs—and pricing it accordingly. I doubt that is what Canon marketers were planning when they developed the 1Dx. And I think such a camera would risk being stigmatized as a proposed market leader that couldn't lead in the image quality department, or at least not do so with sufficient versatility. If the D800 were perceived as still setting the image quality standard, that would be a disaster for Canon too. They would have created a much more expensive camera that was outperformed in almost every meaningful way by its own sibling—except in the one way it was outperformed by a competitor. What a mess.
Bottom line. Canon faces a crisis if it can not come up with a sensor at least as good as the one in the D800, and a biggified 7D sensor probably can't fill the bill. ...Show more →
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