Tentacle wrote:
As much as I like to read the semi-technical musings of others, this thread is about what can be expected for PMA.

I'm expecting Canon to respond to other manufacturers, with features that are missing at the moment...

And with the total lack of any solid information, we'll have to do with educated guesswork. But educated guesswork IS NOT NECESSARILY the same as a wish-list.

My educated guess is that Canon will respond by adding features that people feel are missing... especially when they're already available in competing models.

This isn't directly about what we would like to have. This pre-PMA speculation is, ultimately, about what Canon thinks its in their own best interest for us to be able to have. That's quite a subtile big difference

The list I gave, in my opinion, outlines features that Canon DSLRs should have, but don't. If these features are present in competing cameras, and the public buys cameras because of these features, then it IS in Canon's best interest to provide them too. My list wasn't a 'wouldn't it be nice' wish list - more of a 2007 requirement list.

And exactly what part of the EF10-24 f2.8 is educated guesswork? Sounds like PURE fantasy to me

At this point in time, there is exactly ZERO information available as to what Canon will be releasing in 2007. Unless of course you look at the competition, which does give us a clue - like 10MP, anti-dust devices which was included in the mass market model... because of the competition...

Mark Shaxted wrote:

And exactly what part of the EF10-24 f2.8 is educated guesswork? Sounds like PURE fantasy to me

[...]

/me points at Tom

It wasn't me, it was him, HIM!!! He mentioned rumblings about a canon ef 10-24 F/2.8 L

(Do I need to add a disclaimer, or is the intention pretty much clear? )

Oh, and my remark on educated guesswork vs wish-list wasn't specifically targeted at you Mark, sorry if it appeared that way.

Edited by Tentacle on Jan 15, 2007 at 10:32 PM GMT

Here is a piece of guesswork that tries to be educated, mostly copied from another recent post of mine:

Canon’s DSLR range works fine at both ends: 400D sells well, and 1Ds has not yet any 35 mm size competitors. So there seems to be no urgent need to upgrade either in 1H2007, providing next upgrades in the middle range don’t affect the ends too much.

In middle range Canon has
- 1D against Nikon D2 models
- 5D disturbing 1Ds sales to some degree
- 30D against Nikon D200
each with a different sized sensor!

If Canon sees the middle range diversity as a problem (= if they need to get more volume benefit for them), one way to sort it might be a modular structure, which could mean 2 to 6 variants from the above by mixing a few interchangeable modules (in production phase), i.e. max 2 bodies (consumer & pro) and max 3 sensors (APS-C, APS-H and FF).

A simplification of this idea would be to offer just 2 versions with one pro style body, alternatively with a 1.6x crop and a FF sensor. Such a pro style body could be something between current 1D brick and 30D/5D small body. Natural choices for those 1.6x and FF sensors are already in production, in 400D and in 5D, but both used at 3 fps. If the FF sensor in such a body would not have more pixels than 5D, it would not directly step on 1Ds' toes.

In this line-up, the current 5D could stay in production as a lower cost FF version as long as there is demand for it, or it could be eventually replaced with an even lower cost FF version.

There would still be room for an über camera to replace 1Ds at a later time, with or without a high speed crop mode.

Koivulehto wrote:[...] Natural choices for those 1.6x and FF sensors are already in production, in 400D and in 5D, but both used at 3 fps. If the FF sensor in such a body would not have more pixels than 5D, it would not directly step on 1Ds' toes.[...]

No, those sensors are not in production today. A 400D sensor has 2 channel read-out, clocked at 28 MHz, good enough for 3 fps. If you want to put that sensor into a pro body with 8 or 10 FPS, you have to go to 6 or 8 channels which means ... exactly, a sensor re-design Because you will not be able to triple the sample rate frequency just like that.

The same is true for the 5D sensor. Its current form could not be used or a Pro version without a re-design.

(400D sensor: 2 channel output, at about 28 MHz, 5D is 4 channel, about 18 MHz, 1DsII and 1DII(N) are both 8 channel, 16 MHz. Haven't seen info on the 20/30D, but that could be 4 channel at roughly 19 MHz. 350D sensor has a 2 channel output at about 22 or 23 MHz.)

Nothing better to do... so... new releases in this order - EDUCATED GUESS!!!!!!!!!!!

1DsMkIII - 22MP - PMA
5D 14/16MP (not old 1Ds sensor) - PMA
1DMkIII - 10/12 MP - autumn
40D 12MP - autumn

1DsMkIII - long overdue, and will be the star of PMA. Happy Birthday EOS! Probably with much sought after DR increase.

5DmkII - Bound to get a resolution increase, god knows it needs it (!!!!). With better DR.

1DMkIII - More pixels - but not too many.

40D - I'm sure Canon will wait until the 30D's 18 months are up, and shoehorn a 12MP sensor in there just to beat Nikon to it - you can bet your life the D300 will be 12MP.

Both 1 series will be essentially the same camera, just different sensors - Reduces production costs. I don't think both 1 series will be announced at the same time though - it's good marketing for Canon to wait a while and make two big splashes in 2007.

Note, I'm predicting both FF cameras will have increased DR - maybe the carrot Canon needs to persuade all us croppers(and Nikonians etc) to go FF. They'll then slag off the competition with "cropped sensors = crap sensors", or words to that effect...

I'm still certain the 40D won't appear till autumn, if only because of production reasons... However, having said that, for all we know the new 1Ds has been sitting in boxes waiting to ship for the lst 6 months or more.

As to lenses... well, I expect the 24-70 to gain IS + 30% on the price, the 100-400 to get a makeover - newer IS plus loose the push-pull design + 30% on price, the 400 f5.6 to gain IS + 50% on price, and most likely a new longer EF-S lens along the 18-200 lines (maybe a bit longer though, say, 50-200 f3.5-5.6, f4 would be nice but maybe too expensive).


NOTE:
It is possible that Canon have some super new sensor design waiting to go into the new 1Ds (foveonesque), but to comment on that would be UNEDUCATED and to be honest, as much as I would LOVE to see this happen, I don't think it's going to - not this time around.


EDIT: Tentacle - no problem, I'm just enjoying trying to differentiate educated & uneducated. I'm bored and it's amusing me!

Edited by Mark Shaxted on Jan 15, 2007 at 10:28 PM GMT

Well my prediction is that Canon will do something *big* ... à la new revolutionary, designed from scratch digital - with new nomenclature, new sensortech and whatever new idea Canon can come up with. This is Canon's 70th birthday and the EOS-systems 20th birthday remember? ... gotta celebrate

So here are my guesses:

The 400D will be the last of the X/XX/XXXD digitals

The 30D will evolve into the new übersemi-pro camera with 8 MP/(16 MP Bayer equiv) and 1,3 crop priced lower than a D200. Foveonesque type sensor and Prograde AF.

The 1D(s)II will merge into a new wunderkamera in the line of the 1Dmk3tc (true color) rumor previously mentioned.

Question is now: which one will they introduce first? Will they start with the middle of road like they did with the D30? Or will they assume their marketleader position and start out with the biggest guns - like Nikon did in '99.

Mark Shaxted wrote:
I'm still certain the 40D won't appear till autumn, if only because of production reasons...

They do that and they're kissing a lot of money goodbye. I can't see them doing that. The more likely event is a 40D that is just a 400D sensor and DIGIC III in the 30D body. It may be a letdown for us, but it would be the best business decision for Canon.

It must be worrying for Canon how consistently reviews are placing the 400D/30D behind the D80/D200 even in the area of IQ only above ISO 800 do the Canons pull ahead. Given the sales figures too, I expect a 12 month cycle for the 30D as it really is a 2 year cycle given the 30D was really a point release for the 20D. But only 10.2MP IMO, Canon won't be able to deliver 12MP in a 1.6x crop and maintain it's lead in the noise stakes and DR will suffer too.

40D and 1D III @ PMA, 5D II and 1Ds III in September.

EF-S 18-200 f/3.5-5.6 IS
16-50 f/2.8L IS
EF-S 8mm fisheye

Pixel Perfect wrote:
It must be worrying for Canon how consistently reviews are placing the 400D/30D behind the D80/D200 even in the area of IQ only above ISO 800 do the Canons pull ahead. Given the sales figures too, I expect a 12 month cycle for the 30D as it really is a 2 year cycle given the 30D was really a point release for the 20D. But only 10.2MP IMO, Canon won't be able to deliver 12MP in a 1.6x crop and maintain it's lead in the noise stakes and DR will suffer too.

40D and 1D III @ PMA, 5D II and 1Ds III in September.

EF-S 18-200 f/3.5-5.6 IS
16-50 f/2.8L IS
EF-S 8mm fisheye

That makes the most sense to me. There's no real reason for Canon to upgrade the 5D at this point...maybe cutting the price would make it a better alternative to the D200 to first time buyers, but upgrading it wouldn't achieve anything from a business standpoint.

Canon's 5d rebate runs until 2 or 3 weeks after PMA ends. There will be no new 5d at PMA...

On another note, why is everyone concerned about the 30d competing with the d200? There is no Canon equivalent of the D200, unless you call a whole in the product line competitive.

The 20d/30d were designed to compete against the D70/D80 and I still think that battle is competitive. Canon has a gap "price wise" in the line from the 30d to the 5d and IMO the best way to counter that is to increase the 30d specs, and bump the 5d's capabilities and features while simultaneously decreasing the price. If Canon had a 5d II with all the missing stuff the 5d lacks (fill in your own wish list) for a price of $2K, Nikon would sell far fewer D200s.

jamesf99 wrote:
On another note, why is everyone concerned about the 30d competing with the d200? There is no Canon equivalent of the D200, unless you call a whole in the product line competitive.

The 20d/30d were designed to compete against the D70/D80 and I still think that battle is competitive. Canon has a gap "price wise" in the line from the 30d to the 5d and IMO the best way to counter that is to increase the 30d specs, and bump the 5d's capabilities and features while simultaneously decreasing the price. If Canon had a 5d II with all the missing stuff the 5d lacks (fill in your own wish list) for a price of $2K, Nikon would sell far fewer D200s.

If Canon just reduced the street price of the 5D to around $2000 give or take, there would be far fewer D200s sold.

RikWriter wrote:
jamesf99 wrote:
On another note, why is everyone concerned about the 30d competing with the d200? There is no Canon equivalent of the D200, unless you call a whole in the product line competitive.

The 20d/30d were designed to compete against the D70/D80 and I still think that battle is competitive. Canon has a gap "price wise" in the line from the 30d to the 5d and IMO the best way to counter that is to increase the 30d specs, and bump the 5d's capabilities and features while simultaneously decreasing the price. If Canon had a 5d II with all the missing stuff the 5d lacks (fill in your own wish list) for a price of $2K, Nikon would sell far fewer D200s.

If Canon just reduced the street price of the 5D to around $2000 give or take, there would be far fewer D200s sold.

You're right of course in one sense (even if you already can buy it at close to that price), but it won't stop all those whiners and complainers (me ) that want the 5d to do more than it does and from pointing out those deficiencies. I love the size of the 5d compared to hauling a 1 series around when traveling, but it lacks some things that keep it from being a real "do all" camera.

Now if canon was to cut the grip off the 1Ds mkII and have the grip as an optional extra then they would have a great way to not bother with upgrading the 5D as well as providing an easy (required by wingeing consumers) change for a mkIII. Maybe add some FPS and who needs more, there will be a digital 1V - finally! The 5D can become the equivelent of the 30V (Elan 7) and those needing a '3' for weather proofing and AF will have to buy the gripless 1Ds mkIII thereby netting canon another few swimming pools of cash without the desertations from the top level tier that the 5D to some extent caused.

Canon feel free to use my idea but I want one for free!

Was the EOS3 weatherproof? I don't recall that, and I owned one.

Nill
~~
www.toulme.net

No, it is not.

EB

jamesf99 wrote:
Canon's 5d rebate runs until 2 or 3 weeks after PMA ends. There will be no new 5d at PMA...

That's wrong! The rebate lasts until 19th of february and PMA starts 8th of march, so that's 2-3 weeks before and not after PMA ends.

Therefore, I'm not giving up my hopes

Beni wrote:
Now if canon was to cut the grip off the 1Ds mkII and have the grip as an optional extra then they would have a great way to not bother with upgrading the 5D as well as providing an easy (required by wingeing consumers) change for a mkIII.


Bingo!

I'm also hearing about BLACK! 100-400 f4.0 IS. That would completely ruin the ever so popular "white color for heat reasons" speculation.

The EOS 3 was water resistant, which meant (I think) it was semi-weather sealed.

I've been asking Canon for a 12-24 f/2.8L for a long time. A 10-24?!? Even better! I can't believe there's not more chatter on this lens! And if a 24-70 2.8L IS comes out, looks like I'll be the proud owner of 2 24-70 lenses!

Philippe Arnez wrote:
jamesf99 wrote:
Canon's 5d rebate runs until 2 or 3 weeks after PMA ends. There will be no new 5d at PMA...

That's wrong! The rebate lasts until 19th of february and PMA starts 8th of march, so that's 2-3 weeks before and not after PMA ends.

Therefore, I'm not giving up my hopes


Ooops, sorry you're right.

You don't have to complete your rebate until after PMA which gives people lots of time to wait, find out what Canon is going to do (with the 5d I'm still saying "nothing") and return their purchases. In other words, if anyone wants to buy right before PMA, they may want to wait on returning the rebate information until they find out what Canon does, or doesn't, release.

"Claims must be postmarked by March 22, 2007


Again, I'm saying no new 5d. Could be wrong, but I don't think so. Canon has really slowed on their constant release mentality. It seems like they're not in much of a hurry or they're not ready. There may be a new 1 series, but......

I've never understood the need for a new 5D this soon either. But some people seem confident that it will happen at PMA.
The 40D needs to be introduced with dust management. The 1DsII was designed by Thomas Edison and needs to be replaced. The 5D is still very modern at its price point.
I agree that the D200 sits in a niche by itself. (as all of Canons cameras do above the 30D). That was the point of introducing the D200. Canon may not have a response.

Canon needs a replacement for the 16-35. Even a good copy will not cut it on a next-generation 1Ds MK II or whatever.

Canon still has nothing to compete with the resolution and camera body performance of the D2X after two years, and nothing like the 200-400/4 VR. Some people like to take telephoto photographs and don't shoot in caves or at night. Apparently sports photogs must make more money than nature photogs, as Canon is lacking here.

All of the 1D series bodies are based on ancient 1990s design and should be revamped. The ID MK II/n in particular is becoming a dinosaur after nearly 3 years total on the market.

EB

Me?
1.6x cropcam with f8 auto focus and 12mpix...
A "pro" cropcam...

at PMA there will be no new 5D _with a major sensor upgrade_. it would cannibalize 1DsIII sales.

Canon has started their production line for 22MP full-frame CMOS sensor.

Don't tell anyone I told you this. You didn't hear this from me.

I am Canon 10D and I don't endorse this message