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| Re: D400 in August ... |
runamuck wroteFMers may be the last to discover this, but look around. The only people I see carrying a DSLR are camera club members and Japanese tourists. Everyone else is using a cell phone for pictures. Even the camera club is being taken over by P&S photos.
You are missing two points that to me, living in Asia, is blindingly obvious, but maybe not so much to people living in the 'West'. What camera phones can do is irrelevant when considering what they can't do.
1. There is a massive increase in the personal wealth of large sections of the populations of certain Asian countries, China & India (the two most populous nations on Earth) in particular. Camera malls have grown in numbers, size and quality and there is no sign of this abating.
Asians are by nature less camera-shy and gregarious than Euro-Americans (to literally translate a popular Chinese term for Westerners). The money is there and most Chinese (and probably Indians) are less inclined to other hobbies than photography (now that digital has arrived and made photography far more accessible to the masses) and they certainly have the money for the best cameras & lenses.
2. The increase in the numbers of people using mobile phones as their P&S cameras can only be good for the DSLR/Mirrorless markets in general, as those wanting more flexibility, higher IQ and more speed & reach will inevitably look to cameras & lenses that can deliver that as well as appealing to the artistic nature restrained until now in many people.
Since the personal wealth growth of Asia is forecast to continue developing and surpass that of Europe and the USA I can see no reason whatsoever for any long-term decline in the DSLR market. On the contrary DSLR manufacturers will start (if they haven't already) designing their cameras / lenses to match the needs of the Asian market (more in tandem with Japanese tastes than those of Euro-Americans).
I will go as far as to say this will eventually also dictate pricing, with cars a good example. Car prices here are typically twice those of the identical car in the USA and a substantial increase on European pricing. Cameras are currently between the two (Euro & USA) but seem to be trending upwards.