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Archive 2009 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Go4Long
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p.2 #1 · Nikon In 5 Years???

I don't see many prints larger than 40 X 60 in landscapes either.

Nov 06, 2009 at 07:46 PM

HerbChong
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p.2 #2 · Nikon In 5 Years???

a 40x60 so so print. i regularly stitch 200MP files just for that kind of printing. a 50MP body is something i would like. i'm more likely to get a 40MP one first though. a photographer friend of mine who sometimes posts here and who makes gallery prints all the time thinks 1GP is the right amount to capture. he makes 40x60 fairly often and sometimes a lot larger. another photographer friend who makes his living from it regularly prints 40x60 also but he likes to stay at about 20MP. yet another one of mine goes to 40x60 occasionally but uses a 39MP medium format back and would like a lot more.

Herb...

Go4Long wrote:
In reality you can make a 40 X 60 print out of an 8 megapixel file.

Nov 06, 2009 at 08:10 PM

zoetmb
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p.2 #3 · Nikon In 5 Years???

dasrocket wrote:
In 5 years we may have variable dynamic range sensors with each photosite adjusting exposure: set the max and min limits, and the sensor will expose within; no more blown highlights, lost shadows.

Exactly. I've been predicting this for some time as well. I thought I was a genius until I saw someone else's patent for it.

I think there will be enormous improvements in sensor technology to the point where sensor sensitivity will become almost meaningless except in regards to reducing sensitivity to achieve a certain effect, similar to using neutral density filters.

I also think there will be vast improvements in color in all areas: the camera, printers, displays, etc., so that we can use new wide color gamuts.

And I think there will be technology to greatly improve video quality on DSLRs or their equivalents.

I see somewhat less progress on the lens front. I'd also like to see, but don't know if we will see, improvements in lighting technology where we can shoot and sync at just about any speed.

Nov 06, 2009 at 08:24 PM

zoomer200400
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p.2 #4 · Nikon In 5 Years???

We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

Nov 06, 2009 at 11:26 PM

jancohen
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p.2 #5 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Five years from now we'll all have chips implanted in our heads that will allow us to transfer our experiences to some kind of storage medium. There won't be a need for still or video cameras, and all imaging will be done on a three dimensional basis. The storage mediums we do transfer our images to will be based on a breakthrough in bioengineering that allows us to not only duplicate our stored memories on disk, but retrieve them at will and present them in a variety of ways.

That is, if we make it past the Mayan's 2012.

In the meantime, it's back to my joint

Nov 06, 2009 at 11:27 PM

Fishinfool
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p.2 #6 · Nikon In 5 Years???

How about a line of gear designed for the wildlife photographer, or anyone who appreciates a compact, packable system with reach-

A high quality Titanium body fully weather sealed and rubber coated, say the size of a D40, housing a 12 MP 2.0 crop sensor, with a high performance processor allowing clean ISO 25,000 files. Matching 2.0 crop lenses that are designed to compliment the size of the new camera - IE light weight, between f2.8 and f4, with VR3. A system that would take high quality photos, but only take up half the weight and space of todays FF gear. Similar to what some makers are producing now, just with Nikon quality and features, and 5 year modern electronics.

Full Frame, 5 years modern, would still be available, with all its benifits, for those who do not place a premium of size, weight, or crop factor.

Larry

Nov 07, 2009 at 12:29 AM

deadbolt
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p.2 #7 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Modular bodies where the sensor & processor can be user upgraded. You buy a new sensor/processor instead of a whole new body every year.

Nov 07, 2009 at 01:04 AM

kasakato
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p.2 #8 · Nikon In 5 Years???

deadbolt wrote:
Modular bodies where the sensor & processor can be user upgraded. You buy a new sensor/processor instead of a whole new body every year.
Exactly what I was thinking. This would allow the user to customize the camera to exactly what they need.

I have a feeling more super zooms like the 18-200 will be released, however they will soon become faster while retaining the current size.

Nov 07, 2009 at 04:17 AM

LeifG
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p.2 #9 · Nikon In 5 Years???

deadbolt wrote:
Modular bodies where the sensor & processor can be user upgraded. You buy a new sensor/processor instead of a whole new body every year.

Modularity increases cost, size and weight. And you also have the AF module, metering module, and possible changes to the power requirements. It's cheaper to stick with your camera for more than a year, and work on improving technique.

Nov 07, 2009 at 08:47 AM

LeifG
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p.2 #10 · Nikon In 5 Years???

zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.

3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.

Nov 07, 2009 at 08:50 AM

Pavel
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p.2 #11 · Nikon In 5 Years???

in Five years the dominant player will be Sony and Panasonic on the low end and REd on the high end where Nikon used to be. It will all be video at insane high resolution. Still photography will be like film photography today. Still good for those behind the times, but considered quaint.

Nikon will be a niche player ... because they didn't see the winds of change and kept putting lousy video on top of 80's era body design instead of video cameras that are good for stills.

The future is with the electronic companies. I love Nikon ... but then I'm an old film fart, enjoying the twilight of what was. Enjoy your Nikons. Five years from now, this digital revolution will have moved on.

Nov 07, 2009 at 01:06 PM

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p.2 #12 · Nikon In 5 Years???

I think we can assume most present major players will still be here but the familiar dslr concept as we know it is going to give way to the compact large sensor camera in a big way.
Manufacturers are going to need to put something revolutionary on the store shelves and the compact mirrorless concept is going to capture low end to mid sales.

Nov 07, 2009 at 02:09 PM

Two23
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p.2 #13 · Nikon In 5 Years???

The biggest lag in performance is now dynamic range. Also, I can see camera gear becomming smaller, not larger. I have doubts we'll see 50mp sensors in five years. They don't have the lenses to support that kind of resolution. I also have doubts of much development money going into making more single focal lenses. (Exception of special purpose lenses such as macro, tilt'shift, etc.) Primes have increasingly become niche products as the image quality dramatically increased with (more convenient) zooms and camera ISO climbed high. It might be possible to make an f1.8 zoom in the smaller DX format. In the recent past Nikon has seemed to be able to come up with very few new pro lenses each year. Not sure they have the resources they need.

Kent in SD

Nov 07, 2009 at 02:51 PM

zoomer200400
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p.2 #14 · Nikon In 5 Years???

LeifG wrote:
zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.

3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.

Forgot to add
5) Built in GPS

Nov 07, 2009 at 07:26 PM

jhobgood
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p.2 #15 · Nikon In 5 Years???

In 5 years they will be taking still images from video and we won't have a need for still cameras. Sad but true. All of the sports photogs will be out of a job.

Nov 07, 2009 at 07:39 PM

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p.2 #16 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Unfortuantely there will probably be more of the "throw in the kitchen sink" philosophy, rather than putting efforts towards improving the basics of camera IQ and replacing aging lenses. I'm not expecting anything crazy in five years, but who knows.

EBH

Nov 07, 2009 at 07:56 PM

James R
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p.2 #17 · Nikon In 5 Years???

R. Francois wrote:
in 5 years anyone can be as good as Ansel...

NOT...

+1 Photography will be dead the day every photo taken is a piece of art,

However, right now we can all take a step back from technology and give an old form of photography a try.

Nov 07, 2009 at 10:23 PM

Guidenet
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p.2 #18 · Nikon In 5 Years???

I'd love a g'zillion megapixels in a full frame camera. Cropping birds is no mean trick and bird photography is my passion.

I can't remember who said it but it has turned out to be true. CPU complexity, and everything that goes with it, doubles every 18 months. Given that, we're looking at advances in the realm of 8 times the complexity that we have today in five years. I'm not sure what Nikon has in the offing in the next couple of months, but 8 tmes the advancement from that could be fantastic.

Like others, I think that full frame will make it down to entry level DSLRs and maybe high end point and shoots withing 5 years. I think EVIL cameras will be bridge models with full frame sensors. The high end stuff will probably be a medium format sensor with a new set of lenses for it. I think APS-C will fade out to entry and mid level point and shoots.

Many point to the fact that additional advancements in sensor technology will keep crop sensors as viable, but those same advancements will be there for larger sensors as well. Many point out that large sensors are still much more expensive, but the same holds true for computers. They get very cheap very fast. If there were only a 5% difference in the cost to make an APS-C size or full frame, who wouldn't switch? The vast percentage would, I think, and the hold outs would in time.

Companies who have locked themselves into crop sensors will probably either fail or tick off their base by changing mounts again. I'm talking Olympus who have locked themselves into that small 4/3rd sensor and a mount that goes with it. Pentax has so much red ink right now, they've dropped full frame development, but can jump back in if they have to, and I think they will. I'm not sure how long Hoya will put up with that red ink, though. Hoya didn't buy them so much for the camera division but the medical arm which is quite profitable I hear.

The above is purely my opinion and speculation, not flame bait.

Nov 07, 2009 at 11:18 PM

davidnholtjr
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p.2 #19 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Etadam wrote:
In five years? We'll only need one forum named "Canon"...

If that happened I'd mite stop doing photography.

Nov 08, 2009 at 02:27 AM

James R
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p.2 #20 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Guidenet wrote:

I can't remember who said it but it has turned out to be true. CPU complexity, and everything that goes with it, doubles every 18 months.

Moore’s Law: The number of devices on a chip doubles every 18 months.

Nov 08, 2009 at 03:14 AM

EB-1
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p.2 #21 · Nikon In 5 Years???

davidnholtjr wrote:
Etadam wrote:
In five years? We'll only need one forum named "Canon"...

If that happened I'd mite stop doing photography.

Actually Canon has a 1x-5x (65 MP-E) which is good for that specialized purpose. For smaller subjects than that, you need to look at microscopic systems.

EBH

Nov 08, 2009 at 03:29 AM

90 5.0
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p.2 #22 · Nikon In 5 Years???

theletterj wrote:
The fact that crop bodies have become ubiquitous in the last 5 years, I think the APS-C sensor cameras will become the new bridge cameras and everything between them and point and shoots will fall off. Crop formats were really all there was 5 years ago, and today plenty of people (not me) refer to the D300 as a consumer or novice body. It seems that today, and crop format bodies are considered amateur. But with the proliferation of D40s and D90s in the mainstream, that sector will eventually be absorbed altogether. Thusly, most of the people here will be shooting FX bodies in 5 years. DX won't die, it will just shift to a different market, as it's already been doing.

Nikon and Canon used their entry level models to bring dSLR to the masses and now the masses want more.

As for the leaps in technology, protographers will benefit the most. I'm guessing that we'll be approaching the resolution and dynamic range of some of the very best 35mm film. AF will be even faster and more accurate, and ISOs will be cleaner and higher. Overall, we'll have a few sensors spread over more body styles and more choices, soft of like how if was with film.

Hardly, many, many Pro wildlife photographers shoot dx or "crop" in their brand solely.

Nov 08, 2009 at 04:54 AM

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p.2 #23 · Nikon In 5 Years???

LeifG wrote:
zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.

3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.

Actually focus stacking would be rather easy from a programming aspect, we already have auto focus so all we would need would be to have a bracket type setting that moved focus instead of exposure and stacked them in camera.

The problem would be needing a bigger processor but that will come in time also.

Nov 08, 2009 at 05:00 AM

Rodolfo Paiz
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p.2 #24 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Go4Long wrote:
In reality you can make a 40 X 60 print out of an 8 megapixel file.

Yes. If you have a good exposure, sharp capture, and an excellent image that is properly and well processed, yes. Your original 8MP image at 40x60 yields roughly 58 dpi from the original file, with more resolution available by interpolation.

But in reality I can also make a much nicer, cleaner, more realistic, more detailed, richer, absolutely superior, far more attractive 40x60 print from 24 megapixels. The D3x is able to give me a 40x60 print at 100 dpi, which means a lot less interpolation required to reach a given final desired dpi (e.g. 300) and thus an unquestionably better image.

It would require a 54 MP sensor to give you 150 dpi at those 40x60 inches, at which point you could print on canvas at 150 dpi or do a single interpolation pass to get 300 dpi on paper prints.

To get a 40x60 print at 300 dpi without interpolation, just pure and unadulterated pixels, will require a 216 MP image. Now, that image will be overkill for most other purposes... but the example must fit the point to be made. If you want larger prints, then you definitely can benefit from more MP. For other purposes, even 2MP is enough.

Nov 08, 2009 at 05:28 AM

codeninja
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p.2 #25 · Nikon In 5 Years???

traveler wrote:
Oh I'm quite certain in 5 years we'll have 32mp FF cameras as plentiful as the 6-10mp cameras of today. The noise levels at ISO6400 will emulate ISO400. No doubt dynamic range will have increased considerably by then as well. Lets hope the lens offerings keep up. I also hope the prices of these toys will drop as well. $3,000-$5,000 a pop is a bit much for my budget to absorb on a regular basis.
Among MP, ISO, and DR, I want DR to improve significantly. Would it be awesome to have 20 stop DR?

Nov 08, 2009 at 04:35 PM


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