Steve Spencer Offline Dedicated FM Upload & Sell: On
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My take is that the market for the OP's proposed camera--small mirrorless full frame--is the market that now includes those who want a 5D, 5D MKII, or D700. It is the market to up sell those who have gotten into DSLRs or if enough people get into MFT to sell them on a better camera. Such a camera will likely have excellent IQ in a small package, but will not have high fps, or great autofocus--sounds a lot like the 5D series doesn't it?
I do see the EVF moving to all cameras within ten years. It just seems that the EVF will be significantly better than optical viewfinders before long and that technology seems way ahead of contrast autofocus technology. So it seems inevitable to me that at some point the EVFs will be plenty good enough to go mirrorless, but the contrast AF technology won't be there yet. When that happens you will see pro cameras with mirrors just for AF and EVFs and prosumer cameras that are mirrorless and at that point you might as well make them small. I think that is when you will see the OPs proposed camera. I would guess something like 7 to 10 years.
Then what happens to lenses? I think that depends on whether new lens designs will be needed anyway for higher resolution sensors or to aid contrast based autofocus. I would think initially Canon and Nikon would just make these prosumer mirrorless cameras with their old mounts, but if phase shift AF is completely replaced by contrast based AF then eventually we will see a new mount and new lenses that are smaller with a shorter registry distance. If the timing is right that the older lenses are not giving the needed resolving power anymore and the new lenses could be designed to increase resolving power and make contrast based AF easier and work better, then I think the change in lenses will be sooner. If not the change will take longer. Either way the inevitable, IMO, change to mirrorless cameras is going to completely change cameras and if Canon and Nikon don't make the change or wait to long to make the change they run the risk be run out of the business in twenty years, and the company that can make the change most effectively to mirrorless cameras will have a significant edge in the market.
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