I currently have a new Gitzo 2531 with the Markins M10 which easily meets my current needs and will continue to do so for at least another year. I plan to get a Canon 300 F4 IS for outdoor soccer next year and am worried that I will be pushing my setup. I could sell my tripod now on the B&S and get the 3531S now and not have to worry when I get larger lenses or I can use what I have and upgrade later or possibly even just buy a second tripod dedicated to heavy lenses with a gimbal setup. Please provide some guidance.
The 3530LS is my preference over the 3531S, which is frequently too short outdoors. Exceptions are if you always shoot on flat ground, are short of stature, or plan to use an extension like a center column or Wimberley head.
You should indeed be fine with a 2-series Gitzo and a 300/4 for sports, which will require higher shutter speeds -- and maybe the IS helps at more critical speeds (I'm an old-fashioned Nikon guy). But: I've found very consistently that a 2-series really doesn't cut it with a non-stabilized 300/4 below around 1/40th to 1/60th. A TC makes that harder, still.
I recently took advantage of the Microsoft cashback offer, sold my 2 and 4-series Gitzos, and bought a 3541LS. I think it's a good move.
Basically the difference between the two is that the 3530 will damp about twice the amplitude of vibration as will the 2530. I have a 1258 (like a 2540) and a 3540LS and tested both of htem.
My 3540LS with M20 weighs in at 5.0lbs. The 1258 with BH40 comes in at 4.2lbs. I guess if you have to have just one, and the 35xx isn't too heavy then that would be my choice since I think you buy a lot more stability for a very modest increase in weight.
While you could use the M10 on the 3530/40 the M20 fits better.