An official Canon teaser

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Archive 2006 · An official Canon teaser

lordcarl
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p.10 #1 · An official Canon teaser

24Peter wrote:
So, as usual, after 28 pages of this thread, no one really knows anything about what's coming...

I will give you a hint:
Last year, Canon USA Inc. gave rebates on two EOS DSLR models that ended on July 15. The two models were the EOS 20D and EOS-1D Mark II. And almost 1 year (Aug 22) ago, two new models were announced, EOS 5D and EOS-1D Mark II N.

This year, Canon USA Inc. again gave rebates on two EOS DSLR models, the EOS Rebel XT (EOS 350D) and EOS 5D. One of these two models will be replaced, with the other's successor being announced prior to next February's PMA Show 2007. It is a question of which one's successor is being announced on Aug 24th this year.

BTW, this practise by Canon USA is not new, has been around since the film-based EOS models. Each time a rebate campaign was aimed at a particular film model, there would be a new successor announced prior to the next major photo trade show - either Photokina or PMA.

My 2 cents.

Aug 04, 2006 at 10:26 AM

Hrow
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p.10 #2 · An official Canon teaser

ovredal73 wrote:
Aquasimodo wrote:

The 5D (only real selling point is the full-frame) has not blown crop cameras out of the water in sales

Sigh, another 5D bashing by a non-5D user.

The 5D is a unique camera, seemingly paving the way for a new Canon lineup for pros who do not need all the 1-series facilities.

I really hope there is something new, (3D

) because I have $15 in a bet that Canon will come out with a new camera at all this fall, against a friend who insists he has "insider" information that they will not. Poor him. Like they won´t come out with a new camera this fall

After Photokina, somebody should volunteer to reread all 650 pages of this thread and see who on this board really knows what they are talking about so they can simply be called upon December-ish to fill us in on the status of the February releases. Much easier.

Whether the comment on the 5D is bashing or not, the reality is that the 5D has not blown crop cameras out of the water. From my conversations with dealers and past polls here, the 20D/30D outsells the 5D by about 50 to 1 (yes, I was surprised too). Given that Canon is out to sell cameras you can bet they have noticed the difference in sales as well and will respond accordingly. If they don't then they won't be around in a few years and the heated discussions on future products will just be a fond memory.

Aug 04, 2006 at 11:41 AM

RDKirk
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p.10 #3 · An official Canon teaser

Whether the comment on the 5D is bashing or not, the reality is that the 5D has not blown crop cameras out of the water. From my conversations with dealers and past polls here, the 20D/30D outsells the 5D by about 50 to 1 (yes, I was surprised too). Given that Canon is out to sell cameras you can bet they have noticed the difference in sales as well and will respond accordingly. If they don't then they won't be around in a few years and the heated discussions on future products will just be a fond memory.

Why would anyone think Canon introduced the 5D with the idea of putting its own 350XT and 30D out of business? By your reasoning, Canon would do well to drop the 1D cameras as well, 'cause the 30D outsells them, too.

All of Canon's lineup (Nikon's too) consists of cameras intended for specific market segments. The 5D is not intended for the same market segment as the 30D. It's not intended to entice a 20D owner to upgrade.

The 5D is intended for a different person completely--the person who would have bought a Kodak SLR/c, or who is still holding on to his film camera because he prefers 24x36mm (for whatever reason).

Aug 04, 2006 at 12:23 PM

jamesf99
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p.10 #4 · An official Canon teaser

Hrow wrote:

Whether the comment on the 5D is bashing or not, the reality is that the 5D has not blown crop cameras out of the water. From my conversations with dealers and past polls here, the 20D/30D outsells the 5D by about 50 to 1 (yes, I was surprised too). Given that Canon is out to sell cameras you can bet they have noticed the difference in sales as well and will respond accordingly. If they don't then they won't be around in a few years and the heated discussions on future products will just be a fond memory.

Even as a 5d owner, I too have been "accused" of bashing it. I've stated publically that it was over priced (today I think $2300 is right, after Photokina, perhaps $1800), called it a 30d with FF sensor (it is) and think many things (FPS, VF, flash sync, etc.) can and should be improved. That said, I think it's a good camera for the current market but would love to have an updated replacement with more of everything except weight.

As for the cropped cameras outselling the 5d, well Duh!! That's a big surprise, kind of like saying the sun will come up tomorrow. We've all known for a long time that 5d sales were slower than the xxd or XT cameras. How many people can afford a $2500 body with no lenses when they can have a $1300 body and a few lenses for less money? Where's the surprise? Why do you think so many DRebels/XTs have sold? They're cheap, that's why; it certainly isn't because they have so many features.

The camera market comprises educated and uneducated (or at least "seriously under informed") consumers with the latter far out numbering the former. Irrespective of the photographers frequenting forums such as this, the majority of the buying public doesn't want to spend $20k+ on camera gear.

I don't want Canon to waste any more money or time on cropped cameras (DSLRs) and would rather see lower priced and more completely featured FF cameras. Personally, I hope the only "cropped" camera that survive and incorporate APS-C sized sensors are the P&S cameras; now that would be a step forward.

As for 1.6x crop DSLRs, I don't think I'll ever purchase one again.

Aug 04, 2006 at 01:20 PM

Sprout Crumble
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p.10 #5 · An official Canon teaser

RDKirk wrote:
All of Canon's lineup (Nikon's too) consists of cameras intended for specific market segments. The 5D is not intended for the same market segment as the 30D. It's not intended to entice a 20D owner to upgrade.

The 5D is intended for a different person completely--the person who would have bought a Kodak SLR/c, or who is still holding on to his film camera because he prefers 24x36mm (for whatever reason).

Very true and exactly my point about a need for a 3D. The APSC models need a range-topper as well. Hopefully this year will see that happen.

Aug 04, 2006 at 01:23 PM

JohnJ80
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p.10 #6 · An official Canon teaser

Canon makes a range of cameras to cover virtually all of the digital camera market. The 5D is part of that range.

The volume of models in that range will vary significantly.

While I don't know the cost of each of the models (cost of goods sold), the profit contribution may be much closer model to model in an absolute sense even if the volumes are not.

J.

Aug 04, 2006 at 01:45 PM

RDKirk
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p.10 #7 · An official Canon teaser

While I don't know the cost of each of the models (cost of goods sold), the profit contribution may be much closer model to model in an absolute sense even if the volumes are not.

Or maybe not. Canon will have sales goals for each model and may not expect nearly the same profit from the high ranges than the lower ranges (in fact, sales figures they've released for years have confirmed that they've always made most of their money from the cheaper cameras).

It's bad marketing and business for either Nikon or Canon to ignore any part of the total market. Their high-end visibility sells more low-end cameras. Canon's goal will be to have the greater overall share of the entire DSLR market.

Aug 04, 2006 at 06:10 PM

RDKirk
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p.10 #8 · An official Canon teaser

Very true and exactly my point about a need for a 3D. The APSC models need a range-topper as well. Hopefully this year will see that happen.

I expect Canon to release a camera with a 24x36mm sensor, 8fps, 16mp, and a DIGIC III processor for $4500-$5000. Their execs have said that much already. That will be your "3D," but it will probably be a 1D.

They may also release a 1Ds 24x36mm, 4fp, 20+mp camera for $8000+. That's the latest rumor. Maybe so, but nobody from Canon has said it.

The 5D will probably be fixed at a MAP of $2800 until it's revamped in another year.

A "pro quality" Canon APS-C camera isn't ever going to happen--the senior Canon-Europe exec has already said that in the future "all but the least expensive" Canon DSLRs will be 24x36mm.

Aug 04, 2006 at 06:17 PM

Pixel Perfect
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p.10 #9 · An official Canon teaser

RDKirk wrote:
Very true and exactly my point about a need for a 3D. The APSC models need a range-topper as well. Hopefully this year will see that happen.

I expect Canon to release a camera with a 24x36mm sensor, 8fps, 16mp, and a DIGIC III processor for $4500-$5000. Their execs have said that much already. That will be your "3D," but it will probably be a 1D.

They may also release a 1Ds 24x36mm, 4fp, 20+mp camera for $8000+. That's the latest rumor. Maybe so, but nobody from Canon has said it.

The 5D will probably be fixed at a MAP of $2800 until it's revamped in another year.

A "pro quality" Canon APS-C camera isn't ever going to happen--the senior Canon-Europe exec has already said that in the future "all but the least expensive" Canon DSLRs will be 24x36mm.

Trouble is many don't want a 1 series sized camera. It won't be a 3D and even at $4500 it's still too dear for many even disregarding size and weight. I'd take with a bucket of salt what so-called Canon execs have said. The market is dynamic and blanket statements are worthless.

Aug 05, 2006 at 10:56 AM

Yakim Peled
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p.10 #10 · An official Canon teaser

>> I expect Canon to release a camera with a 24x36mm sensor, 8fps, 16mp, and a DIGIC III processor for $4500-$5000. Their execs have said that much already.

Where?

Aug 05, 2006 at 11:09 AM

bogatyr
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p.10 #11 · An official Canon teaser

Pixel Perfect wrote:

Here is part of a leaked document that's come into my possession:

"...Also for the first time Canon will be employing 2.75" OLED display screen, offering superior resolution, brightness and power consumption to LCD screens and having markedly better performance in bright daylight."

Comment to the above:

You should be aware that OLED displays have vastly shorter lifespans than LCD. There are already far better solutions than OLED, and Canon is probably working with them too.

Bogatyr

Aug 05, 2006 at 12:28 PM

Monito
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p.10 #12 · An official Canon teaser

Aug 05, 2006 at 12:49 PM

DaveMart
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p.10 #13 · An official Canon teaser

bogatyr wrote:
Pixel Perfect wrote:

Here is part of a leaked document that's come into my possession:

"...Also for the first time Canon will be employing 2.75" OLED display screen, offering superior resolution, brightness and power consumption to LCD screens and having markedly better performance in bright daylight."

Comment to the above:

You should be aware that OLED displays have vastly shorter lifespans than LCD. There are already far better solutions than OLED, and Canon is probably working with them too.

Bogatyr
Nope. Canon like the OLED technology, and see it coming in their cameras.
http://www.dslrphoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/07/Future_DSLRs.pdf
Chuck Westfall is the Media communications director for Canon USA.
OLEDs are shorter lifespan than LCDs, but that is being worked on, and 'shrter' in any case in this context is around 15000 hours - not suitable for some applications, but it gives you over 4 years of shooting 10hours a day on a caemra, every day of the year!
Pixel Perfect is hoaxing though.
Regards,
DaveMart

Aug 05, 2006 at 01:56 PM

RDKirk
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p.10 #14 · An official Canon teaser

I'd take with a bucket of salt what so-called Canon execs have said. The market is dynamic and blanket statements are worthless.

Don't you remember when Canon-Spain execs said in February of 2005 that in the fall there would be a completely new camera between the 20D and the 1D? Then that October there was the leaded 5D specification--in Spanish.

The only real "intelligence" we have are the statements of the execs, and we have at least this one case where they were on the money (even if rather vague). There is no intelligence whatsoever for any other speculatory assertions.

Given the length of time for camera cycles, (business requirement establishment, R&D, tooling, training, et cetera), most of whatever we'll see at ths Photokina must have been pretty well established by even the last Photokina. They should have had a very good idea of what they would be capable of doing and should have already committed to 90 percent of whatever the "Photokina 2006" camera was going to be.

If you go to the Canon Museum site and read the detailed story of the design and birth of the T-90, you will see that even though the T-90 was obsoleted by the Maxxum 7000 a full year before the T-90 was released, the process was too far along for them to stop. The had to release the T-90 and recoup as much of the R&D and production costs as possible before they could delve into what autofocusing was all about.

Aug 05, 2006 at 09:21 PM

Sprout Crumble
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p.10 #15 · An official Canon teaser

Pixel Perfect wrote:
Trouble is many don't want a 1 series sized camera. It won't be a 3D and even at $4500 it's still too dear for many even disregarding size and weight. I'd take with a bucket of salt what so-called Canon execs have said. The market is dynamic and blanket statements are worthless.

Very true. Canon's statements seem to vary depending on the market it was released in and what the competition are doing at the time.

If Canon do release a mini-1D with the APSC sensor, it'll need to be $2500 at most. The 1D2n will likely get a significant upgrade soon so a $3500 crop body won't make sense.

Aug 05, 2006 at 10:04 PM

calvillo
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p.10 #16 · An official Canon teaser

Would Canon's introduction of a MF size chip qualify as the start of a legend? The Mamiya ZD is pretty much still in limbo, in the states anyway, if you own the dSLR market and are getting close to max. density on a 24x36 sensor, why not take a shot at the next level?

Aug 06, 2006 at 12:16 AM

muffins
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p.10 #17 · An official Canon teaser

Last night I had a dream of a + shaped sensor, like 2 normal full frame sensors with one rotated 90 degrees and superimposed over the first, with a crop function that let you shoot 4x5 or 4x6 portrait or landscape without rotating the camera to portrait orientation, or centre square crop or smaller crops for high speed, with a thumb toggle to choose which area of the sensor you wanted to use. I have no doubt that this is what Canon will introduce

Aug 06, 2006 at 12:26 AM

Monito
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p.10 #18 · An official Canon teaser

muffins wrote: Last night I had a dream of a + shaped sensor, like 2 normal full frame sensors with one rotated 90 degrees and superimposed over the first, with a crop function that let you shoot 4x5 or 4x6 portrait or landscape without rotating the camera to portrait orientation, or centre square crop or smaller crops for high speed, with a thumb toggle to choose which area of the sensor you wanted to use. I have no doubt that this is what Canon will introduce

Not full-frame. The mirror would have to be larger for the vertical and would not fit EF.

Likewise, there is about 0.01 percent chance Canon would introduce medium format sensored cameras, since they'd need a new line of lenses, and they can more easily and with less risk make more profit by improving the EF lens line, especially with high quality corner to corner fixed focal length lenses around 21 to 24 mm for about $1,000 to $1,500 at whatever aperture it takes to compete quality-wise with the Zeiss offerings.

Aug 06, 2006 at 01:13 AM

RDKirk
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p.10 #19 · An official Canon teaser

Likewise, there is about 0.01 percent chance Canon would introduce medium format sensored cameras, since they'd need a new line of lenses, and they can more easily and with less risk make more profit by improving the EF lens line, especially with high quality corner to corner fixed focal length lenses around 21 to 24 mm for about $1,000 to $1,500 at whatever aperture it takes to compete quality-wise with the Zeiss offerings.

I don't think it's so close to impossible that Canon would go to medium format, but I do think it's unlikely they could make that great a move without some reliable, indepent source having gotten wind of it.

Aug 06, 2006 at 03:28 AM

Kyle Yates
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p.10 #20 · An official Canon teaser

RDKirk wrote:

I don't think it's so close to impossible that Canon would go to medium format, but I do think it's unlikely they could make that great a move without some reliable, indepent source having gotten wind of it.

I can't read hebrew but I've been following a lot of the issues in this thread.

I'm sure Canon WILL make some entry into the MF market. The DSLR market has matured so market growth in this area is only going to be modest.

Consumer digicams might have a little further to go before the market saturates so I'm sure unlike KODAK who just slid into the "Basket Case Zone" the CANON CEO's will be looking for their next profitable income stream.

A possible type of scenario might be to provide the Sensor and maybe a Lens or two initially and team up with another supplier to manufacture the bodies before eventually doing it on their own.

Cheers

-K

Aug 06, 2006 at 10:19 AM

Yakim Peled
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p.10 #21 · An official Canon teaser

Update:
The teaser was removed. I will inspect and update later.

Aug 06, 2006 at 10:25 AM

Mike Hatam
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p.10 #22 · An official Canon teaser

Hrow wrote:
Whether the comment on the 5D is bashing or not, the reality is that the 5D has not blown crop cameras out of the water. From my conversations with dealers and past polls here, the 20D/30D outsells the 5D by about 50 to 1 (yes, I was surprised too). Given that Canon is out to sell cameras you can bet they have noticed the difference in sales as well and will respond accordingly. If they don't then they won't be around in a few years and the heated discussions on future products will just be a fond memory.

Henry - one thing to keep in mind is that Canon is actually out to sell lenses. Who do you think they make more lens profit on - a 30D owner or a 5D owner?

Canon is not dumb. They are very shrewd in their product positioning, and they understand their market.

Aug 06, 2006 at 04:03 PM

hogwallow
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p.10 #23 · An official Canon teaser

Mike Hatam wrote:

"...one thing to keep in mind is that Canon is actually out to sell lenses. Who do you think they make more lens profit on - a 30D owner or a 5D owner?"

Mike is right; no doubt on a per customer basis they make more on a 5D owner. I suspect they still make more overall in the 30D camera/accessories market because of the higher volume. Only Canon knows for sure.

Aug 06, 2006 at 05:13 PM

Sprout Crumble
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p.10 #24 · An official Canon teaser

Hogwallow wrote:

Henry - one thing to keep in mind is that Canon is actually out to sell lenses. Who do you think they make more lens profit on - a 30D owner or a 5D owner?

Given that those most attracted to the 5D are photographers used to the film-sized format and thus more likely to have lenses coupled with more new photographers buying the 30D, I'd say the average new 30D owner would buy more lenses. It certainly helps that a 30D is the price of a couple of lenses cheaper than the 5D to begin with.

At best on an individual unit basis there's very little difference. Given the vast difference in unit volume between the two, I'd say that the 30D is by far the lens sales cash-cow for Canon. The introduction of $1000 EF-S lenses says something for the theory.

Aug 06, 2006 at 06:09 PM

jschulst350d
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p.10 #25 · An official Canon teaser

Kyle Yates wrote:
RDKirk wrote:

I'm sure Canon WILL make some entry into the MF market. The DSLR market has matured so market growth in this area is only going to be modest.

Consumer digicams might have a little further to go before the market saturates so I'm sure unlike KODAK who just slid into the "Basket Case Zone" the CANON CEO's will be looking for their next profitable income stream.

Cheers
-K

I am not sure there is any evidence to say that the "market has matured so market growth in this area is only going to be modest." Recent sales figures and ever-rising production quotas (Canon now turn out >150,000/month 350D's alone) suggests otherwise. Their own forecasts suggest very steady growth as the price off consumer P&S top-end merge with DLSR. There are millions of film SLR owners who basically gave up using their cameras when decent P&S (eg. IXUS400) came out. Once DLSR became affordable (and the 350D at $650 is affordable) many millions are ready to switch back to SLR and shell out for a new kit of lenses - especially if they have the odd EF lens already in a cupboard as a starter.

Not at all a good indicator I'm sure but of the 10 friends I have let try my camera 5 have already gone and purchased a 350D or similar price DLSR in the last 6 months. If that were replicated they are looking at more like exponential growth than a static market!

Whether or not Canon continue to put out APS-C sensor models only at the bottom end (and 30D is not the bottom end) the sales of EF-S lenses is huge as the 350D, 20D etc. count for 90% of total sales. That's why it makes sense for them to introduce $1200 EF-S 17-55 glass even at huge startup costs. I am sure they did their market research first on this. This does not even include the users who wnat to upgrade from 350D to 20D/30D at some point and still keep buying EF-S lenses.

- JS.

Aug 06, 2006 at 06:34 PM


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