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D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?
  
 
chez
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p.13 #1 · p.13 #1 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


charles.K wrote:
The figures show a definitive trend to MILC but the existing DSLR has not changed much. The increase in MILC has included a lot of smaller format MILC's like Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, Ricoh and Sony with a lesser proportion to FF MILC of Sony and Leica.

Overall there will continue to be a decline in sales as most people now have no need for FF or MF as they no longer print images. Web, FB and Instagram images is the majority of their needs and I am finding many friends with the very new smart phones take really good shots and
...Show more

Charles, looking at the CIPA numbers, I don't agree with your assessments.

Here are the DSLR versus mirrorless unit sale the last few years:

Year. dSLR. mirrorless
2013. 13,825. 3,306
2014. 10,550. 3,290
2015. 9,709. 3,345
2016. 8,449. 3,159
2017. 4,323. 2,398. ( Jan-Jul )
2017. 7,411. 4,111. ( extrapolated to end of year )


So in just 5 years DSLR sales slipped nearly 50%, and the trend appears to continue if the 1st half of 2017 repeats in the 2nd half.

Mirrorless has grown in that time by nearly 25%, and if trends continue for the rest of 2017 we'll see over 1/3 of ILC sold being mirrorless.

I believe if you look at the revenues you'll see the same picture.

So this notion of DSLR slide has stopped...it has not and continues in 2017.



Sep 02, 2017 at 01:42 AM
charles.K
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p.13 #2 · p.13 #2 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


chez wrote:
Charles, looking at the CIPA numbers, I don't agree with your assessments.

Here are the DSLR versus mirrorless unit sale the last few years:

Year. dSLR. mirrorless
2013. 13,825. 3,306
2014. 10,550. 3,290
2015. 9,709. 3,345
2016. 8,449. 3,159
2017. 4,323. 2,398. ( Jan-Jul )
2017. 7,411. 4,111. ( extrapolated to end of year )

So in just 5 years DSLR sales slipped nearly 50%, and the trend appears to continue if the 1st half of 2017 repeats in the 2nd
...Show more

Chez, the split of DSLR's to MILC will continue to a point and will find a status quo depending on the cameras/lenses that are available and most importantly cost. Some people will prefer the DSLR and some MILC. I am sure we will also see hybrid DSLR's as the difference between traditional styled DSLR's and MILC is narrowed. More importantly there is a huge inventory of Canon/Nikon/Sony A mount glass which will not disappear.

Personally I really like both and I am brand agnostic.

The D850 I am certain will be a superb camera and will be here for another 4 years like the D810. This is the intent of the thread rather than trying to find the gloom and doom with DSLR's. DSLR's for many pro's will continue to be their main work horses alongside their MILC's.




Sep 02, 2017 at 02:04 AM
nehemiahphoto
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p.13 #3 · p.13 #3 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


charles.K wrote:
Chez, the split of DSLR's to MILC will continue to a point and will find a status quo depending on the cameras/lenses that are available and most importantly cost. Some people will prefer the DSLR and some MILC. I am sure we will also see hybrid DSLR's as the difference between traditional styled DSLR's and MILC is narrowed. More importantly there is a huge inventory of Canon/Nikon/Sony A mount glass which will not disappear.

Personally I really like both and I am brand agnostic.

The D850 I am certain will be a superb camera and will be here for another 4
...Show more

I agree Charles. The D850 will be great for astro given the improved low light, no compression/lossy oddities and no star eater algorithm.



Sep 02, 2017 at 03:00 AM
davewolfs
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p.13 #4 · p.13 #4 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


You need to look by region - not as a whole as it's highly skewed by Asia.

chez wrote:
Charles, looking at the CIPA numbers, I don't agree with your assessments.

Here are the DSLR versus mirrorless unit sale the last few years:

Year. dSLR. mirrorless
2013. 13,825. 3,306
2014. 10,550. 3,290
2015. 9,709. 3,345
2016. 8,449. 3,159
2017. 4,323. 2,398. ( Jan-Jul )
2017. 7,411. 4,111. ( extrapolated to end of year )

So in just 5 years DSLR sales slipped nearly 50%, and the trend appears to continue if the 1st half of 2017 repeats in the 2nd
...Show more



Sep 02, 2017 at 04:07 AM
charles.K
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p.13 #5 · p.13 #5 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


davewolfs wrote:
You need to look by region - not as a whole as it's highly skewed by Asia.



There are definitive differences between regions. Specifically the love affair within Asia for the Leica M series just amazed me. I was stopped very often in the streets and people were well aware of the body and lenses that I was using, yet in Australia most were totally oblivious and thought I was using an old film camera




Sep 02, 2017 at 05:03 AM
zhangyue
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p.13 #6 · p.13 #6 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


Actually I am not sure MILC is more popular at Asia than here. Most of regular people in China think the best camera are still Canon and Nikon and I see people most serious about photography around place for landscape were using Canon and Nikon with f2.8 trinity and big tripod. But I haven't pay close attention during last two years visiting Asia. But to me, it seems I see Sony, Fuji, Olympus more often during travel around North America and Europe. I don't know about Japan, but definitely not China. I feel buying high end MILC require more sophisticated customers general speaking.

I also visit 500px regularly if I am bored and follow a bunch of photographers I like and almost no Sony there. No kidding.

But nowadays, my parents or friends of my parent or my friends' parent ask recommendation about photo gear I always recommend MILC as I really feel no need for them to lug heavy DSLR. Most of them are happy. For most people, they almost don't bring camera unless travel to somewhere and size and weight over power anything else, and I agree and happy for them.

Very occasionally, I visit forum in China, I find MILC can be grouped a few type: one is group like travel and willing to spend more to get better images but sensitive to size and weight like elder people but not limit to. The other is the one like here advanced users that understand the benefit of such system in term of adaptability and usability. The final group is loyal customers just choose it and defend it hard when anyone challenge their choice like many hang around in brand forum. All in all, they are gain popularity more and more and almost always be a hot topic during past few years, almost all new and cool stuff are from MILC. However, I have a feeling they are more like hot topic than really gain high end market.

The possible reason for more sold MILC units come from advanced DSLR users start buying 2nd system for traveling but it doesn't necessarily means they are ready to give up DSLR. It is not abnormal seeing canikon user claim they have multiple systems for different usage.

It would be more interesting to see how much high end units sold compare to Canon Nikon.

So, I don't doubt the steady gained popularity of Sony but hang around at alt forum definitely will give you illusion that MILC is doing better than it is really doing.

There might be reason Canikon feel no pressure to enter this game at this stage.

Having said that, for me as serious hobbyist, I am willing to accept bigger size and weight to gain ergonomic and IQ advantage either on body or lens. Hence go back to OP topic D850 is a perfect camera for me. I wish it can improve color performance and Nikon can add a new WA zoom. I will be happy Nikon user for a few more years.



Sep 02, 2017 at 05:51 AM
Stoffer
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p.13 #7 · p.13 #7 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


chez wrote:
It would be interesting to find out the manufacturing costs between the D850 and the A9. I would think it costs quite a bit less to manufacture an electronic device like the A9 compared to a mechanical device like the D850. This cost difference alone will drive camera manufactures to become totally electronic as they are needing more and more these days to scrape every bit of margin from each camera sold.


Yeah, this is a good point. There is a lot of research, development, testing and QA associated with making a new mirror, AF sensor assembly, viewfinder metering etc that you just don't have to factor in with a mirrorless camera. In the not too distant future, you can axe the shutter mechanism assembly too, if you can double the read speed from the A9 sensor tech in the future.

Sure, the sensor needs to be more advanced in a mirrorless and you need to pay for a high quality EVF, but there is a lot of mechanical stuff with expensive tolerances that you can just forget about.

I think the that Sony A9 brings in a very nice profit per camera for Sony while also being a learn-as-we-go full-frame fully electronic shutter concept. It is a first generation sensor with somewhat reduced DR, so IQ could improve...



Sep 02, 2017 at 07:10 AM
chez
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p.13 #8 · p.13 #8 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


davewolfs wrote:
You need to look by region - not as a whole as it's highly skewed by Asia.



And why doesn't Asia count? I'm sure the camera manufactures would all love to sell bucket loads of cameras to Asia...just like the USA.



Sep 02, 2017 at 08:01 AM
Stoffer
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p.13 #9 · p.13 #9 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


Part of me really want the D850, part of me says wait and see what the Sony A7r3 / A9r will be like. The latter option is obviously the smart choice, but am I a smart man?


Sep 02, 2017 at 09:56 AM
Arka
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p.13 #10 · p.13 #10 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


zhangyue wrote:
The possible reason for more sold MILC units come from advanced DSLR users start buying 2nd system for traveling but it doesn't necessarily means they are ready to give up DSLR. It is not abnormal seeing canikon user claim they have multiple systems for different usage.
...
Having said that, for me as serious hobbyist, I am willing to accept bigger size and weight to gain ergonomic and IQ advantage either on body or lens. Hence go back to OP topic D850 is a perfect camera for me. I wish it can improve color performance and Nikon can add a new
...Show more

This is my position - a dSLR, particularly one that's as good as the D850, has its place in my imaging toolkit. But that place is not around my neck when wandering the streets of my home city or some foreign city, or in my single carry-on bag I take with me on business trips... or even with me when I take my daughter out for a walk or to the playground. I shoot almost entirely primes now, and my favorite Nikon primes are also really big. That was one of the reasons I bought a Leica M with some Summiluxes nearly 5 years ago and fell in love with it... it was a camera that I took with me everywhere. The Sony presently gives me a lot of what the Leica did insofar as size and image quality, but a lot more capability in terms of the situations and subjects where I can effectively use it.

I am also willing to accept a larger camera, up to a point... I think that point may be a D850 with either a 14-24 f/2.8 or 105mm f/1.4... my two favorite Nikon lenses. I'm thrilled by the prospect of 46MP with outstanding Nikon optics for shooting landscape and studio/portrait work. But I also think that the D850 may very well be the last dSLR I will buy or need (unless they can make the D900 even smaller while providing a fully articulating screen).



Sep 02, 2017 at 10:13 AM
 

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Arka
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p.13 #11 · p.13 #11 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


Stoffer wrote:
Part of me really want the D850, part of me says wait and see what the Sony A7r3 / A9r will be like. The latter option is obviously the smart choice, but am I a smart man?


If you shoot Nikon and like the lenses, I would just get a D850. I'm sure the succeeding Sony cameras will be fabulous (heck, the A9 already is fabulous), but the D850 is a ton of camera for the money. I'm getting one for sure.



Sep 02, 2017 at 10:14 AM
Stoffer
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p.13 #12 · p.13 #12 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


Arka wrote:
If you shoot Nikon and like the lenses, I would just get a D850. I'm sure the succeeding Sony cameras will be fabulous (heck, the A9 already is fabulous), but the D850 is a ton of camera for the money. I'm getting one for sure.


Yeah, but the point is I shoot Sony (A7r2) and have Sony and Canon lenses, so I would have to sell most to finance the move to Nikon. The smart move is to at least see which direction Sony is going in before moving to Nikon.



Sep 02, 2017 at 10:28 AM
bjornthun
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p.13 #13 · p.13 #13 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


davewolfs wrote:
You need to look by region - not as a whole as it's highly skewed by Asia.



One could just as well argue that the figures are skewed by Europe or the US.



Sep 02, 2017 at 12:35 PM
bjornthun
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p.13 #14 · p.13 #14 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


chez wrote:
Charles, looking at the CIPA numbers, I don't agree with your assessments.

Here are the DSLR versus mirrorless unit sale the last few years:

Year. dSLR. mirrorless
2013. 13,825. 3,306
2014. 10,550. 3,290
2015. 9,709. 3,345
2016. 8,449. 3,159
2017. 4,323. 2,398. ( Jan-Jul )
2017. 7,411. 4,111. ( extrapolated to end of year )

So in just 5 years DSLR sales slipped nearly 50%, and the trend appears to continue if the 1st half of 2017 repeats in the 2nd
...Show more

The DSLR will eventually become a niche product like the rangefinder.



Sep 02, 2017 at 12:37 PM
zhangyue
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p.13 #15 · p.13 #15 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


I would say depend on how you adaptive to the Sony system. If you find you are fine with EVF general speaking and prioritize size and weight, I would say wait for A7rIII. It definitely will be more responsive for most of thing with improved manual system which you are not satisfied based on thread you state earlier.

On the other hand, if you are willing to stretch a little to have multiple system, buying D850 and keep A7RII or A7R seems a nice option that you will have both with a backup system.

In term of IQ, I think A7RIII will be at least just as good as D850. For me, there is actually no struggle as I way prefer OVF and willing to carry the weight and bare the size. I don't think EVF will meet my requirement at least for another round. I demo Leica SL twice in Leica store, as nice EVF as people talk about, fundermentally doesn't change my viewing experience the minor feed delay is still there.

Stoffer wrote:
Yeah, but the point is I shoot Sony (A7r2) and have Sony and Canon lenses, so I would have to sell most to finance the move to Nikon. The smart move is to at least see which direction Sony is going in before moving to Nikon.




Sep 02, 2017 at 02:15 PM
davewolfs
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p.13 #16 · p.13 #16 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


Absolutely!

bjornthun wrote:
One could just as well argue that the figures are skewed by Europe or the US.




Sep 02, 2017 at 02:26 PM
rscheffler
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p.13 #17 · p.13 #17 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


bjornthun wrote:
The DSLR will eventually become a niche product like the rangefinder.


I totally agree and I think most DSLR users will agree, as well. The question is: how long this will take both in respect to market share and in respect to aspects of mirrorless technology surpassing the equivalent in DSLRs?

I am currently pro-DSLR because it generally does what I need better than mirrorless. I will definitely change my position once mirrorless better suits my needs. This was exactly the nature of my transition from film to digital ~15 years ago and I'm sure is the case for everyone else here, on an individual basis. BTW, my first digital camera was the Canon 1D because it was the first that performed as well or better than film cameras (AF, fps, laggy-ness, reasonable resolution). This line of thought was also the basis for my transition from manual focus to AF (Canon FD to EF) back in the early 90s. I did not switch sooner to the Minolta or Nikon AF systems back then, precisely because of their inferior performance. My just concluded 2 week trial of the a9 indicated it was generally on-par with the DSLRs I use, which was a considerable performance improvement since I used mirrorless last year (a7RII). It indicates to me, that I will probably be switching to mirrorless sooner than later. But still not quite yet.

Given the pace of mirrorless development by Sony and assuming they don't slow down, it seems mirrorless will quickly outperform DSLRs (AF, fps) relative to the comparatively gradual DSLR feature/performance development pace over the past 15 years. How much more performance can Canikon squeeze out their mirror boxes while maintaining reliable AF? At some point it's obvious removing the mirror is necessary to achieve even greater performance gains.

I don't believe Canikon are anti-mirrorless. Rather, they have established DSLR systems that work very well with a deep customer base still using such products. Would it be in their best interests to release mirrorless models that perform worse than their DSLRs? Canon did so a few years ago with the EOS-M line and was ridiculed by enthusiasts for the unimpressive performance (however those cameras moved Canon to #2 in mirrorless in Asia (or Japan?) among the average population of camera users). Those cameras have improved but remain at a pro-sumer level, leaving advanced users wondering if the company will ever be able to 'catch up' to Sony. Yet in some performance parameters it's mirrorless that is still catching up to ancient DSLRs.

My guess is Canikon will time their mirrorless releases to provide as smooth as possible transition for the bulk of their advanced DSLR user base, who perhaps are similarly conservative and not as interested in being on the cutting edge of technological developments (and the compromises that usually entails). Sony addressed that aspect of the market because it was in their best interest to be the early mirrorless adopter (though perhaps at the expense of their alpha system users) because they didn't have any chance of overtaking Canikon with DSLRs.

As for the D850... it's such a great (on-paper) all-rounder... I wonder if it will be Nikon's DSLR equivalent of the highly regarded F6? The culmination of an era's technological achievements in one package. The last DSLR hurrah before the switch to mirrorless...



Sep 02, 2017 at 05:06 PM
Mark K
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p.13 #18 · p.13 #18 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


zhangyue wrote:
I only highlight a few I think it is nice.
45.75M
9 frame/S (7/s without grip)
D5 AF 153AF
ISO64-25600
2.36M touch flip LCD
0.75X OVF
180K RGB SENSOR
NO build in FLASH
AUTO FOCUS bracket
Illuminated button during dark shooting
Silent shutter support 6 frames/S (that is a mirrorless killer for me, maybe not yet)

I know this is Alt forum. but it also happen to have best gear discuss on the internet. Hence I post it here. There are lots of alt lenses can be used on it, which should suit here.
Same feelings as D800 announced....and I moved to Nikon

A comment for last item, I
...Show more




Sep 02, 2017 at 06:46 PM
Steve Spencer
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p.13 #19 · p.13 #19 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


rscheffler wrote:
I totally agree and I think most DSLR users will agree, as well. The question is: how long this will take both in respect to market share and in respect to aspects of mirrorless technology surpassing the equivalent in DSLRs?

I am currently pro-DSLR because it generally does what I need better than mirrorless. I will definitely change my position once mirrorless better suits my needs. This was exactly the nature of my transition from film to digital ~15 years ago and I'm sure is the case for everyone else here, on an individual basis. BTW, my first digital camera
...Show more

I think Ron's analysis is quite sound, but I would add that I think both Canon and Nikon have issues to solve before they will be able to have a strong FF 35mm mirrorless system, IMO. Let's start with Canon. They have achieved a lot. It seems they have a pretty good to excellent perhaps sensor based AF system. That is a huge deal and one of the main challenges of mirrorless. They also have a DSLR lens line up that will be super easy to adapt to mirrorless, afterall these lenses already adapt very well to Sony. They should adapt even better to a Canon designed mirrorless system. They have a huge built in target audience for any mirrorless system they would make (look at how well the Canon M did even though it wasn't a very compelling product). They do have two issues to solve, however, one fairly easy to solve and one quite difficult to solve. The easier one to solve is the development of a FF 35mm EVF. Canon has EVFs on other cameras, but a compelling mirrorless FF 35mm will need a really good EVF and Canon could use some development in this crucial area. The difficult issue to solve for Canon, however, is they still need sensor development to have a compelling FF 35mm mirrorless. The sensor in the 5D IV was a big step forward, but it is not back side illuminated and it isn't clear how easy to will be for Canon to develop backside illuminated sensors (and ultimately stacked back side illuminated sensors like the A9). FF 35mm mirrorless cameras to be compelling, IMO, need very fast sensors and it still isn't clear that Canon is up to that task, although they seem to be up to everything else.
For Nikon, the profile is very different. They have many areas that need improvement, but the D850 shows they are making progress. It looks like they will be able to handle a mirrorless interface well. It is also clear that they can design pretty much any sensor they want and Sony will make it for them. I think they are behind Sony and Canon in developing mirrorless AF, but if they could buy this tech from Samsung and make a deal for them to provide EVFs too, they would be most of the way there. There is a pretty big hitch for them, however, as well and it is their lenses. It should be easy to make a compelling adapter for Nikon's new E lenses, but I am much less certain they can develop a good adapter for their older lenses with its mechanical aperture especially for high fps. It seems more likely they would need multiple adapters and only the E lenses would adapt well. This obviously would be less than ideal in the short run, but probably not a long term problem.



Sep 02, 2017 at 07:25 PM
zhangyue
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p.13 #20 · p.13 #20 · D850, now confirmed spec, what you think?


I like the fact here we can still discuss gear no matter we agree on things or not. I keep learning new information, perspectives.

I dont think, don't know and actually should say don't wish DSLR will be minority in the future.

One more year or two, it will be more clear once A7RIII hit the market and Canon and Nikon starting offering MILC.

Steve, I begin to feel that Nikon is no longer able to get latest sensor from Sony. They can only shop from shelf than cordevelop with Sony as before like D800 or they have to design tweak based on existing sensor with older technology. This will always put them unoptimized position in term of sensor tech compare to Sony. (I don't doubt the tweak ability of Nikon, but at the same time I don't think they have the R&D resource Sony have. And they need know what raw material they will get during next cycle product design, Unless Sony engineer willing to keep them update for whatever tech will be put in the future, Nikon and other company will almost always a half generation delay if not one )

This also means whatever they are gonna put into design will be disclosed to Sony well before. A not great scenario for being competitors.

MILC has more potential in a sense that DSLR is already reaching perfection as a mature tech form but MILC seems still have way to go to improve itself.


Edited on Sep 03, 2017 at 06:00 AM · View previous versions



Sep 02, 2017 at 09:39 PM
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