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My two cents but your mileage may vary.......
- I would say leave the 24-70 at home. I don't think you'll miss much with the 16-35 and 70-200. This is my usual setup for travel photography, although I'm not big on portraiture.
- It sounds like your interest is candid portraits. You have a few options there.
--- You can park the 70-200 on your FF camera when you're walking around so you're always ready for that portrait shot. You gain the versatility of the zoom and you get a decent walkaround lens that can also do nice portraits. The trade-off is that it might be a bit too heavy for walking around.
--- Another option is to leave the 70-200 at home if you don't think you need the reach. And replace with the 135L. It might be lighter than the 70-200, so good there. But you lose in versatility.
--- Yet another option is to take the 16-35, 70-200, and 135L prime with you. However, I don't think thos option makes much sense since the 70-200 and 135L have similar focal ranges, and when you're traveling and walking around, I would think you'd want to minimize redundancies as much as possible.
--- Personally, based on your need for candid portraits, I would probably just bring the 16-35 and 70-200. Leave the 70-200 on your camera and bust out the 16-35 when needed. Normally, I would suggest using the 35mm prime as the walkaround lens, but you lose the candid portraiture at such a wide angle. That's why maybe you should leave it at home.
--- I don't think bringing the 85L makes sense because it's heavy and the slow focusing may cause you to miss those random candid portraits.
However, I know this is a bucket list trip for you, so bring as much gear as you want. Not sure what your travel arrangements are, but when I was in Japan a few years ago, every major rail station (e.g. Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Kobe, Osaka, etc.) I went to had storage lockers available where you could park a big backpack for like 24 hours. This also goes for Narita airport, with the time limit in the days range. Not sure how safe these are and I'm usually super paranoid about that sort of stuff being from NYC, but I parked my big backpack in the Kyoto station for a whole day of walking around, and had no issues with theft. Maybe others can chime in here.
At the end of the day, remember that all of us probably go through this level of "OMG, what do I bring" type of feeling. But just enjoy the trip because Japan is a wonderful country, and sooooooooo different than the States imo