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Archive 2016 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?

  
 
MrPeteH
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Not sure if this has been discussed here before. I saw this ongoing shutter experience database, with statistical predictions of likely shutter life... seems interesting.

Are there enough people here with high-count shutters that have survived a long time, and/or eventually died, to give a sanity test on their predictions?

For example:
http://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/nikon_d700.htm
D700 - 2/3 probability of going over 500k clicks, more than 50% probability over 1m

http://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/nikon_d3.htm
D3 - *worse* experience; < 50% chance of making it to 500k clicks.

Doesn't fit the general scuttlebut... yet these are based on real-world examples.

Just curious...



Nov 27, 2016 at 04:41 PM
petterf
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Well the statistics are based on a few hundred entities from a non controlled group. They only represent those that have taken their time to find the page and enter a number without any guarantee of being truthful.

If we accept the numders as being 100% true and representative - one might say that D3's are perhaps living a harder life in a professional world where they take more damage.
And that the D700 mostly are owned by loving and caring enthusiast in a far more delicate enviroment.

But who knows?



Nov 27, 2016 at 04:52 PM
DGC1
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Maybe one should shy away from spray and pray and concentrate on getting the shot with substantially less shutter actuations...


Nov 28, 2016 at 07:38 AM
MrPeteH
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Certainly room for being cautious about assumptions...like assuming that # clicks tells you a lot about camera (or photographer ) quality, ruggedness, etc.

(Apologies for extended delays... sudden medical issues... got surgery #4 for the year... #5 next week oh boy... yes I'm fine, just distracted.)



Dec 17, 2016 at 11:25 PM
EB-1
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


petterf wrote:
Well the statistics are based on a few hundred entities from a non controlled group. They only represent those that have taken their time to find the page and enter a number without any guarantee of being truthful.


That's the problem. We really need data from the repair companies.

EBH



Dec 18, 2016 at 12:52 AM
sjms
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p.1 #6 · p.1 #6 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


DGC1 wrote:
Maybe one should shy away from spray and pray and concentrate on getting the shot with substantially less shutter actuations...


actually one should learn how, when and where to use various methods/abilities at the appropriate times. everything has its moment.



Dec 18, 2016 at 07:27 AM
Michael White
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p.1 #7 · p.1 #7 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Stats are like polls the originator can make them support their goal. Something I earned in my statistics class


Dec 18, 2016 at 07:21 PM
EB-1
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p.1 #8 · p.1 #8 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


DGC1 wrote:
Maybe one should shy away from spray and pray and concentrate on getting the shot with substantially less shutter actuations...

sjms wrote:
actually one should learn how, when and where to use various methods/abilities at the appropriate times. everything has its moment.

A backup always has its moment when the primary body fails. The shutter is only one potential failure point.

EBH



Dec 18, 2016 at 08:06 PM
sjms
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p.1 #9 · p.1 #9 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


neither makes up for the failure of the user.


Dec 18, 2016 at 10:41 PM
daleg
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p.1 #10 · p.1 #10 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


today's dslr is mostly a digital/electronic instrument. few movable parts - specifically the shutter and mirror box assembly. otherwise, it's a physical body with assorted hinges and seals - but most essential components are electronic, not mechanical - as was the case in days of yore.

as the physical components (shutter & mirror box) can be readily replaced - I've never completely understood the typical fixation or preoccupation with shutter count - as most of the camera components are unaffected by the number of shutter actuations.

I have a 1d4 on its 4th shutter and 2nd mirrorbox - combined shutter count just topped 1,200,000 - and it's near mint. zero brassing, no performance issues. It sits on the same shelf as another body that has a shutter count < 1,000.

Both cameras were made to be used (1D series). The 1D4 has had regular annual CLS by Canon. I have no hesitancy using it. None.




Jan 15, 2017 at 07:26 AM
Mataz426
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p.1 #11 · p.1 #11 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Good luck on your surgery.


Jan 15, 2017 at 09:15 PM
c.d.embrey
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p.1 #12 · p.1 #12 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Ever heard of Mean Time Between Failures?

"Mean time between failures (MTBF) is the predicted elapsed time between inherent failures of a system during operation ...MTBF value prediction is an important element in the development of products. it gives an estimation of the life time of a component, which reflects the failure rates in the 'end-of-life wearout' part ...Reliability engineers and design engineers often use reliability software to calculate a product's MTBF according to various methods and standards ...

Nikon, etc have engineers who predict the average life of a shutter. Are they always right—of course not, but they get their estimate by testing. Not by conducting a poll on an obscure website



Jan 15, 2017 at 11:00 PM
MrPeteH
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p.1 #13 · p.1 #13 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


I have rather a lot of experience with MTBF in the computer world, which is where MTBF originated. Unfortunately, it's not true that MTBF is estimated through real-world testing.

I recently saw Seagate admit that their actual expectation is a real world MTBF about half of what is calculated for their spec sheets. But major users (Google, Backblaze, etc) who have been tracking these things on a large scale see results typically much worse, and varying quite a bit by manufacturer... Some types of Seagate HDD in particular for 2016 at Backblaze had reliability 10x worse than expected.

One more note: such estimates often are based on rather optimistic assumptions about environmental stress, usage, storage and more. (In the case of hard drives: while the specs say the are good up to 60c, the MTBF assumption for Seagate is 40c max. I've just been testing our photo backup arrays... none of the boxes keep the HDD's below 40c unless I force it that way. 40c max IS a very good idea btw but that's off topic in this thread

c.d.embrey wrote:
Ever heard of Mean Time Between Failures?

Nikon, etc have engineers who predict the average life of a shutter. Are they always right—of course not, but they get their estimate by testing. Not by conducting a poll on an obscure website





Jan 31, 2017 at 11:49 AM
elkhornsun
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p.1 #14 · p.1 #14 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Replacing the shutter for any Nikon camera is going to cost under $500 so I don't worry about it. As far as i know, Nikon does not use a MTBF value but a minimum number or baseline for shutter activations which makes more sense.


Jan 31, 2017 at 07:49 PM
MrPeteH
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p.1 #15 · p.1 #15 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Yep...and apparently, Nikon doesn't even publish the baseline for most bodies anymore, because some courts have held that that can be treated as a warranty.


Jan 31, 2017 at 10:45 PM
nmguy
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p.1 #16 · p.1 #16 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


I've found there are about as many ways to calculate MTBF (shutter life) as there are ways to make soup. They can range from purely mathematical solutions that use unverified source data or they can use test methods that range from easy to tortuous. Then the question of statistical methods to evaluate the test data can vary from favorable to hideous. Also in the statistics realm, what is the criteria for a 'pass' condition? Is it 50% survival, sigma (approx 68%), 3 sigma (approx 90%), 6 sigma (approx. 99.999%, no one uses 6 sigma on deliverable product, it's just an MBA thing). No one describes their methods.

After all of that commotion, MTBF really only examines the design, not manufacture. For example, if tests are used on a pre-production model to gather MTBF data, an experienced lab tech (someone with knowledge and experience beyond what a production worker has) probably put the test unit together under relatively unhurried conditions. That doesn't speak for the production worker who has to put 25+ of these things together every day. What about bad supplier parts or a new production worker that didn't get the secret handshake on the dimension that was a bit off on the manufacture instructions?

I'm not aware of any camera company that explains how they determine MTBF either. I'll bet every manufacturer has a different method. So with that, comparing between manufacturers is most likely a fool's errand. Comparing MTBF within a company is about as far as I'd have any confidence.

As a hobbyist I'm pretty much guaranteed I won't need a shutter replacement (barring a tired production worker, or in my case a D600). Something shiny and new will distract me before shutter failure happens. Grace to pros who put a lot more shutter openings on their camera.

BTW, I have several soup recipes, they may not be to your taste though.



Feb 01, 2017 at 12:38 AM
Andrew J
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p.1 #17 · p.1 #17 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


The best kept secret is that the speed you use your shutter at has a lot to do with how long it will last. There aren't any Nikon shooters using 1/4000 regularly and getting 500K on a shutter.


Feb 06, 2017 at 10:48 PM
walts.photo
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p.1 #18 · p.1 #18 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


Ah, so BIF shooters w/ 600 f4 lenses and fashion model shooters with f1.2 lenses will have to buy new shutters. That leaves us budget shooters in good shape.


Feb 08, 2017 at 09:19 AM
MrPeteH
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p.1 #19 · p.1 #19 · Do the ShutterLife 'predictions' make sense to you?


I think he meant the speed per shot (1/4000) rather than the shots per second (10 fps)...

Makes sense... very high shutter speed has to be somewhat hard on the mechanism...



Feb 08, 2017 at 12:33 PM





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