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Archive 2016 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates

  
 
ggreene
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p.3 #1 · p.3 #1 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


RustyBug wrote:
So I'm thinking the non-L 200-600/5.6 should go for around $2,500 ... to get to "L" territory, then I think the $4K range is closer, but as others have mentioned, the non-"L" version may be the target market.


A non-L at $2500-$3000 is still not going to compete with the $1K Sigma/Tamrons or the $1400 Nikon. It will sell to be sure but not in the volume that those are. I think Canon will leave the lower end alone.

A 200-600/5.6 L will not come close to hitting $4K. That's a $10K+ zoom minimum.



Oct 23, 2016 at 06:37 AM
Ferrophot
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p.3 #2 · p.3 #2 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


I think it will sell well if the optics are superior to the Sigma S and Tamron G2, and it still represents a value buy, under $3000.


Oct 23, 2016 at 07:11 AM
johnctharp
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p.3 #3 · p.3 #3 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


The way y'all are talking it sounds like Canon may not be wanting to compete with Nikon's 200-500/5.6E- but Canon really should, and with a 200-600/5.6 they can cover both bases, i.e. being a first-party zoom with the necessary focal range, and it'll need to be south of US$2,000 MSRP at that.


Oct 23, 2016 at 07:20 AM
Tom_W
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p.3 #4 · p.3 #4 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


The competition sells for $1400-2300 (Nikon, Tamron, Sigma Sport). This is a spot Canon needs to fill.
Otherwise, Sigma, et. al., will sell lenses and Canon won't.



Oct 23, 2016 at 07:43 AM
johnctharp
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p.3 #5 · p.3 #5 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Tom_W wrote:
The competition sells for $1400-2300 (Nikon, Tamron, Sigma Sport). This is a spot Canon needs to fill.
Otherwise, Sigma, et. al., will sell lenses and Canon won't.


I already have my 150-600 | C, and it is literally the only lens that fills its niche, out of Canon or any other third parties lineups.

Canon doesn't have anything close, so yeah, this is the spot they need to fill. They'll likely not get close to the Contemporary lens or Tamron's V1, but they should be able to reasonably compete with Tamron V2 and Nikon's 200-500.



Oct 23, 2016 at 07:58 AM
OwlsEyes
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p.3 #6 · p.3 #6 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Just for the record, the Nikon 200-500mm f5.6VR is at least as sharp as the Canon 100-400mm f4.5-5.6IS (original recipe ). I owned and shot the original 100-400mm IS in tandem with the 300mm f2.8 IS mk1 for about 10 years. I replaced the lot w/ a Nikkor 200-400mm f4/VR which was better than my canon zoom but did not come close to the fixed 300mm f2.8.
Enter today, I now shoot the Nikon 200-500mm VR in tandem with the Nikon 300mm f/2.8 AFS-II. In my opinion, the 200-500VR optically bests my former 200-400VR when shooting at a distance, but not when the subject is close... here the 200-400VR comes close to the optical performance of a 400mm f/2.8. Furthermore, 200-500VR is at least as good as my former 100-400mm IS (b4 current version). So, to say it is not as "good" as an L-zoom is not accurate. The lens is not built like an L-lens or premium Nikon optic and it does not focus as fast as current L-zooms and premium Nikkors, however... it is as sharp.
So what's the point... if Nikon can do this for $1400, so can Canon. Canon may have created an unreasonable expectation for price/performance by shooting for a 600mm f/5.6, but if they can produce this lens for $2100, they will sell a ton.

Edited on Oct 23, 2016 at 02:48 PM · View previous versions



Oct 23, 2016 at 08:22 AM
Pixel Perfect
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p.3 #7 · p.3 #7 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Nikon's 200-500 f/5.6 weighs in at 2.3kg which is ~ 5.1lbs, a 200-600 f/5.6 would have to weigh about 20% more and so 2.8kg or close to 6lb's is a guess. It's hard to see how they can make it lighter as the Nikon is already all plastic (other than mount), but if anyone can make it lighter than we think it's Canon, so maybe 5.5lb would be reasonable. If Tamron can make a 150-600 f/6.3 for $1400, Canon can make a 200-600 f/5.6 for $2-2.5K if they want to and they need to, to compete. It doesn't matter if it's dearer as long as it's reasonably priced, si not too heavy, offers optical performance as good or better than the competition, being f/5.6 and of course not having to worry about focus issues every time a new camera comes along will make any premium worth it for a lot of people, and if not, the competition already has great offerings.


Oct 23, 2016 at 08:23 AM
Tom_W
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p.3 #8 · p.3 #8 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Compatibility with the 1.4X teleconverter is just about a must also. Nikon's 200-500 is compatible with theirs.


Oct 23, 2016 at 08:37 AM
arbitrage
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p.3 #9 · p.3 #9 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Tom_W wrote:
Compatibility with the 1.4X teleconverter is just about a must also. Nikon's 200-500 is compatible with theirs.


Its compatible but cropping the bare lens gives an image that is about equal to using the TC so it is not very useful and you lose an f stop and that is either a SS or ISO compromise.



Oct 23, 2016 at 10:17 AM
howard
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p.3 #10 · p.3 #10 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Dragonfire wrote:
The "Old" me would tell you, but the "New" me ...


We don't say "old" or "new", we say Mark I, Mark II.



Oct 23, 2016 at 10:21 AM
EB-1
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p.3 #11 · p.3 #11 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Imagemaster wrote:
Still rumored to be coming out in Spring, along with 6D2.

Any guesses on weight & price.

I'm guessing around 5 pounds and $3,000.

Dragonfire wrote:
The "Old" me would tell you, but the "New" me ...

howard wrote:
We don't say "old" or "new", we say Mark I, Mark II.


There is no Canon MK I of anything.

EBH



Oct 23, 2016 at 10:29 AM
howard
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p.3 #12 · p.3 #12 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


EB-1 wrote:
There is no Canon MK I of anything.
EBH


Ok, "Classic", better?



Oct 23, 2016 at 10:54 AM
RustyBug
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p.3 #13 · p.3 #13 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Ferrophot wrote:
I think it will sell well if the optics are superior to the Sigma S and Tamron G2, and it still represents a value buy, under $3000.


This ^.

The optics of the Siggy / Tammy are pretty good bang/buck ... but a better optic will bring a higher price. Also, it will be (slightly) faster glass, and (assumed) have better performance.

500/5.6 = 89.3
600/6.3 = 95.2
600/5.6 = 107.2

Having optics north of 100 isn't something that gets done on the same economy as those south of 100 ... hence the 600/6.3 and the 500/5.6 lenses are in a different league from what a 500/5.6 will be (even @ non-L). Expecting Canon's price point on a 500/5.6 to be in line with the Tammy / Siggy / Nikon is like expecting a one ton truck being built for the same money as a 3/4 ton truck.

Toss on a better optic (even @ non-L) and the $ goes ^ a bit more @ there's no such thing as a free lunch ... with folks somehow seem to think that a 200-600 /5.6 is equitable to 150-600/6.3 ... and it's really not as equitable as many seem to assume.

Short answer, larger diameter glass requires incurs more engineering / materials both in terms of area @ pi*r^2 and in need for different density / thickness to accommodate the refraction index, etc. Folks thinking that a 600/5.6 should be built (even non-L) for the same money as a 500/5.6 or 600/6.3 may be wishing for a free lunch a bit more than they are actually thinking it through.



Edited on Oct 23, 2016 at 11:31 AM · View previous versions



Oct 23, 2016 at 11:12 AM
Imagemaster
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p.3 #14 · p.3 #14 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


howard wrote:
Ok, "Classic", better?


No, I don't know of any Canon DSLR that Canon named "Classic".

The original 5D is a 5D, period.



Oct 23, 2016 at 11:20 AM
RustyBug
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p.3 #15 · p.3 #15 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


ggreene wrote:
A 200-600/5.6 L will not come close to hitting $4K. That's a $10K+ zoom minimum.


Upon reconsideration ... $4K might be a bit of a "free lunch" expectation for "L"



Oct 23, 2016 at 11:37 AM
Tom_W
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p.3 #16 · p.3 #16 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Just for reference, referring to Rustybug's post above, the 300 f/2.8 lens has about a 107 mm diameter front element. Which would be the size needed for a 600 f/5.6.


Oct 23, 2016 at 04:27 PM
RustyBug
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p.3 #17 · p.3 #17 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Tom_W wrote:
Just for reference, referring to Rustybug's post above, the 300 f/2.8 lens has about a 107 mm diameter front element. Which would be the size needed for a 600 f/5.6.


So, we're really talking about a 300/2.8 with the addition of a variable 300mm extension tube, some extra elements and more moving parts.
Yeah, I know the math doesn't work for 200mm, so it would be more like a 200/2 with a 400mm extension tube.

And folks think that Canon should make a better optic like that (still non-L) for the price of the Siggy 150-600/6.3 or the Tammy or Nikon 200-500.



Oct 23, 2016 at 05:18 PM
Tom_W
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p.3 #18 · p.3 #18 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


Diameter-wise, yeah, 300/2.8. I doubt that it would be of the same build quality, for if it were, it'd cost a lot more. And Canon really has the durable version build in the 200-400L with the built in 1.4X teleconverter. It is top notch, and is well liked. But it's also very expensive, and out of reach for many.

I think that it would have to be of similar - or better - build and optical quality to its competitors or it just won't sell. There are a lot of people out there that can't (or won't) buy their way into something like the 200-400 f/4L. But they will buy a Sigma sport, or buy a Nikon body and the 200-500. Or buy the Tamron. Or a Canon of similar price if it's perceived to be a good optic.



Oct 23, 2016 at 06:14 PM
arbitrage
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p.3 #19 · p.3 #19 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


RustyBug wrote:
So, we're really talking about a 300/2.8 with the addition of a variable 300mm extension tube, some extra elements and more moving parts.
Yeah, I know the math doesn't work for 200mm, so it would be more like a 200/2 with a 400mm extension tube.

And folks think that Canon should make a better optic like that (still non-L) for the price of the Siggy 150-600/6.3 or the Tammy or Nikon 200-500.


Exactly, and that brings me back to my first reply in this thread....."My guess is that you will never see such a lens"....BUT if we do it won't be quite what people are expecting in size, weight or cost....L or non-L....



Oct 23, 2016 at 06:35 PM
Pixel Perfect
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p.3 #20 · p.3 #20 · Canon 200-600 f5.6 guesstimates


RustyBug wrote:
Upon reconsideration ... $4K might be a bit of a "free lunch" expectation for "L"


There is almost no reason on earth a 200-600 f/5.6L IS would be much different in price to a 200-400 f/4L, the latter is probably a lot dearer than anticipated (eg compare to Nikon usually much dearer on lenses) due to the complexity of the in-built 1.4x TC, so I'd suspect a 200-600L IS could go for around $7-8K, but it'll have to be dearer than a 300 f/2.8. A non L version can save a lot of money by using plastic body and hood, rather than magnesium alloys and carbon fibre hood, also not being hand-built, looser tolerances, lesser sealing, no hard case, could easily halve the price. But realistically anything under $3K and Canon would be entering value territory that is exceedingly rare for them.



Oct 23, 2016 at 07:01 PM
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