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Archive 2015 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?

  
 
matthewsaville
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?


I want to start a general discussion on how severe drought (plus, the possibility of an El Nino too!) is affecting the American West. The snowpack is almost gone from the Sierras and Rockies. Wildlflower schedules were off and underwhelming in some areas, yet normal in others. And who knows what fall colors could be like!

Does anybody living anywhere in the West have any tips, ideas, or predictions for what might be great this year, and what might be a waste of time? If we have a normal or above-average monsoon season, I might roam around the Southwest. If fall colors come together nicely, I might visit the Sierras or Zion. If nothing at all exciting happens, I might just tour the West Coast, and document the drought itself, and probably explore the Glen Canyon area next spring.

I'm a full-time wedding & portrait photographer, so my schedule is extremely flexible.

I'm hiking the north half of the Lost Coast in a few weeks, that could be interesting depending on what the weather does...

Take care, and happy adventures!
=Matt=



Apr 23, 2015 at 04:28 PM
Greg Campbell
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?


IMO, it's nearly impossible to 'predict' the SW Monsoon. The best you can do is read what the Climate Prediction Center is saying, and keep in mind that their predicted trends are not a 'high confidence' product.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

The 3 month forecast looks promising.



Most of my typical SW destinations are canyons and rocks that are not wildly affected by the ongoing drought.

Forest fires are a worry, although the outlook doesn't seem too dire.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf



Apr 23, 2015 at 05:59 PM
gdanmitchell
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?


As a California photographer who travels around a lot and who watches weather and climate rather carefully...

There are mainly two issues. One is precipitation, and this varies a lot across the state — some areas are astonishingly far behind the normal precipitation, and this is the fourth year of drought. The second issue is temperature and associated changes — the climate has been much warmer than historical norms, often warming to record-breaking levels.

The temperature changes affect essentially the entire state of California. If anything, areas that are normally arid may see the least actual change. For example, I don't see a lot of change in Death Valley, at least not the sorts of change that couldn't be explained by seasonal variations. On the other hand, the coastal areas have been affected by the strange and anomalously warm Pacific. This has affected sea life both directly (fish) and secondarily (stress on the creatures that feed on the sea life.) In some cases it has also altered the typical patterns of weather, for example diminishing coastal fog in areas where it is the norm at certain times of the year.

Further inland, the continuing pattern of increasing warmth has, on its own or combined with the precipitation changes, altered patterns everywhere. In the mountains various critters (and eventually plants) move to higher elevations, and some may run out of environments that are amendable to them. Plants are coming up and blooming sooner than usual. Many plants (aspen trees in the eastern Sierra, for example, and conifers all over the range) are showing serious signs of stress, with some visible die-offs beginning. (This is a topic of conversation about people who live in and visit these areas a lot.)

The precipitation pattern is bizarre — like nothing we long-time Californians are familiar with. There was virtually no real winter in many areas. In my central California location in the SF Bay Area, we barely had any frost or freezes at all this year — and frost and freezing temperatures used to be quite common. (We had rainfall in the Bay Area that is not too far below normal this year, but after three previous drought years we really needed above normal rain.) This situation in the Sierra is horrendous. The April 1 snow survey reported less than 10% of typical snow pack for the day, lower than at any other time since measurements have been taken. And the snow line has been much higher — some of the areas usually measured for snow had none on this date. Right now the Sierra looks like a typical late July or so in the past.

I believe that we are going to see a lot of streams dry up completely in the Sierra this year — including some that usually keep flowing all year. We are at the point at which I also think we are going to see problems with some Sierra lakes. The many small glaciers and permanent ice fields of the Sierra are shrinking significantly. Last year I saw bare old ice on a number of them early in the season — more typically snow remains over the old ice and protects it. No longer... Example: Lyell Glacier in Yosemite, which is famous as the glacier where Muir conducted his experimental observations proving the geological impact of glaciers, recently was determined to no longer be a glacier. It has stopped moving, and it is now simply a (shrinking) ice field.

If you want a non-urban California experience that seems not too far from what we are used to, photography along the coast may be a good bet. The farthest northern portions of the state are also less changed than other areas.

I'll leave it to those with better local knowledge to comment on other states.

Something is clearly changing, and the effects are not positive at all.

Dan

Edited on Apr 24, 2015 at 07:48 PM · View previous versions



Apr 24, 2015 at 02:10 PM
fotobandi
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?


^ Good analysis of the CA situation. I'm in SoCal, but travel around the state. Agree that the coast is probably the best bet and appreciate your noting of the diminished coastal fog, which is usually a big problem in the warmer months. Should make Big Sur and Mendo coasts more hospitable.


Apr 24, 2015 at 02:55 PM
Craig Gillette
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · The American West - How is this year's drought-stricken climate shaping up?


In a casual glance around here, hilly interior SoCal, we had very little rain the last couple of years. We have a mix of grassy hillsides and oaks, low scrubby/bushy coastal sage chaparral, and dense woody old growth chaparral with lots of oak, large manzanita, poison oak etc. They brought in goats and sheep several times to eat down the grassy hillsides but aside from a brief green up this year (better than last year's!) due to a better timing of the minimal rain?, the hillsides grass and mustard is very, very light and probably too little fuel to worry too much about. However, the denser scrub and brush and tree covered areas haven't burned in some places for many, many years considering the size of the trees. That's less dense and doesn't seem too robust. It's scary dry and fires in those areas will be devastating. Our green season was noticeably short.




Apr 25, 2015 at 12:57 PM





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