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Archive 2014 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales

  
 
jctriguy
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p.7 #1 · p.7 #1 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


retrofocus wrote:
IMO Lytro was the only revolutionary design in the last few years in the camera industry. Currently only usable with small sensors, this technology could well be the most innovative step in sensor design in the future. It would make fast lenses redundant if fast f stops are only needed to create a shallow DoF (for better light transmission you still would need fast lenses). It would be fantastic to be able to change the DoF in post processing which Lytro RAW can provide you with.

All those AF "improvements" from the big camera manufacturers are no big step up
...Show more

Interesting that you pick out 2 things, high ISO and AF, that likely drove a lot of the camera industry for the past 10 and 30 years. Digital was obviously the biggest game changer.

AF was one huge change in the industry that allowed many more people to enter the photography world. 99% of cameras now use AF (estimate on my part, including all smartphones, P&S and all modern dslrs/mirrorless). The electronics are also a big help, exposure metering and auto settings, etc.

High ISO was another huge shift in the equipment. This is an area that significantly improved on one of films biggest limitations. The ability to shot at 6400 and up has dramatically changed what people can do with a camera. No more need for flash, tripods, long exposures in many day to day situations.

So, back to the original question...I think the person who commented on the cameras of this generation being so good that we no longer need to upgrade as often was right on the money. The early generations of digital had significant limitations, each new generation brought improvements in numerous areas that made a real difference for most users. The current generations are still getting better, but not in as many areas and the difference in quality needs specialized applications or a particular attention to detail to observe.

Gong back to my original rebel or 1D is a chore in some ways. The images are still fine, a little small to crop or print big, but certainly very usable. My current 7D is still going strong after almost 4 years of my use. I know the latest cameras with the sony sensors are better IQ, but for my uses it isn't worth the price. For everything else, my iPhone 5 is an amazing camera with builtin image editing and sharing options. I could upgrade to a new camera, but given the output I'm after, I wouldn't see much difference.



Jul 23, 2014 at 10:00 PM
Krosavcheg
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p.7 #2 · p.7 #2 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


rattymouse wrote:
That was a great shot you posted by the way. The green in that image was very impressive. I dont think I've ever seen a digital camera produce such a powerful, yet lifelike green as what you presented there on Provia 400X.



My humble thank you. Didn't tweak colours in the scan at all.
I only got this shades with Provia 400x and Astia. I found latter particularly pleasing as it seems to give more mauve shading...sigh..




Jul 23, 2014 at 10:30 PM
snapsy
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p.7 #3 · p.7 #3 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


More fuel for the Smartphone fire:

Sony invests $345M in image sensor production amid 'selfie' boom



Jul 23, 2014 at 10:32 PM
Steve Spencer
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p.7 #4 · p.7 #4 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Frogfish wrote:
I do enjoy reading your responses in many of the threads I read. Always logical and polite.

However there a few pertinent points missing from your analysis above :-

a) the middle class of China is already well above the total population of the USA. They do not however, have the technical expertise and experience of consumer luxury items that Americans do (let's exclude mobile phones and designer watches & clothing from this conversation) ! That will change over the next generation.
b) Massive population means very large, wealthy, consumer groups simply by virtue of statistics. Whether the affluent comprise 20% or 10%
...Show more

Thanks for the kind words frogfish. I have appreciated your comments as well and those in this thread too.

Here is a bit more data. The current population numbers about 7.25 billion people globally. China has almost 1.4 billion people and is still slightly increasing in population, but growth is slow and it is not projected to ever have more than 1.5 billion people and by 2050 it is expected to have less people than today and by 2100 it is expected to have only just over 1 billion people. So China's fast growth has slowed substantially and the projections are for the population to decline over the course of this century.

In India the story is very different. Currently India is estimated to have 1.27 billion people. By 2020 it is expected to surpass China as the most populous country at just under 1.5 billion. So very fast growth over the next few years. By 2050 it is estimated to have about 1.6 billion people and that is estimated to hold steady with only a slight decline by the end of the century. So India is growing much faster, but its growth is expected to flatten as well by the middle of the century.

Indonesia is somewhere in the middle. It has about 250,000 people and with moderate short-term growth that is expected to peak at the middle of the century with about 320,000 people or so and then hold steady with a slight decline by the end of the century.

Globally the UN predicted the world's population will continue to grow, but already it is growing at a slower rate than the 20th century. The peak is predicted to be about 10 billion people by 2062 and it is estimated to hold steady from that point.

Looking at these numbers hoping for corporate growth by simple growth in population seems pretty unwise. Instead, what I think we agree on is that places like China, India, and Indonesia can have a lot of growth as people learn about cameras. I happen to think that is also true in North America and Europe. I don't think it is more people in the world that will grow camera business. I think it is getting more people to learn about photography and the basics of exposure, composition, and lighting that could lead to substantial growth in higher level camera sales.

Sources for the data can be found at this link:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#growthrate



Jul 23, 2014 at 10:34 PM
Tariq Gibran
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p.7 #5 · p.7 #5 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Steve Spencer wrote:
Looking at these numbers hoping for corporate growth by simple growth in population seems pretty unwise. Instead, what I think we agree on is that places like China, India, and Indonesia can have a lot of growth as people learn about cameras. I happen to think that is also true in North America and Europe. I don't think it is more people in the world that will grow camera business. I think it is getting more people to learn about photography and the basics of exposure, composition, and lighting that could lead to substantial growth in higher level camera
...Show more

The growth potential for businesses in emerging market countries is more about growth in the middle class which is a result of the dramatic shifts in those societies. That is something that has more to do with those changes rather than simple population growth.

"As recently as 2000, only 4 percent of urban households in China were middle class; by 2012, that share had soared to over two-thirds. And by 2022, China’s middle class should number 630 million – that is, three-quarters of urban Chinese households and 45 percent of the entire population. The rise of the middle class is essentially an urban phenomenon. Average per capita urban income in China is roughly triple that in the countryside – and there are set to be 170 million new urbanites between now and 2022.
...
These trends will accelerate over the next 10 years as the role of “upper middle class” consumers expands. Today, the mass middle class – with annual household incomes of between $9,000 and $16,000 – are dominant, accounting for 54 percent of all urban households; upper middle-class households, with incomes of $16,000 to $34,000, represent only 14 percent. By 2022, however, the upper middle class will become the new mainstream, accounting for 54 percent of all urban households and generating just under half of total Chinese private consumption."

http://thediplomat.com/2013/05/half-a-billion-chinas-middle-class-consumers/

http://www.uschina2022.com


"By 2030 around one billion people in China could be middle class — as much as 70% of its projected population."

http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Driving-growth/Middle-class-growth-in-emerging-markets---China-and-India-tomorrow-s-middle-classes

What the middle class in China looks like and how it dramatically differs from the U.S. middle class:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/china-middle-class/

Four times larger than Americas within a generation:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/09/05/within-a-generation-china-middle-class-four-times-larger-than-americas/



Jul 24, 2014 at 08:31 AM
Steve Spencer
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p.7 #6 · p.7 #6 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Tariq Gibran wrote:
The growth potential for businesses in emerging market countries is more about growth in the middle class which is a result of the dramatic shifts in those societies. That is something that has more to do with those changes rather than simple population growth.

"As recently as 2000, only 4 percent of urban households in China were middle class; by 2012, that share had soared to over two-thirds. And by 2022, China’s middle class should number 630 million – that is, three-quarters of urban Chinese households and 45 percent of the entire population. The rise of the middle class is
...Show more

Certainly growth of the "middle class" is important in countries like China, but I think just growth in income won't translate easily to camera sales. One of the huge challenges in China will be education of the all the people who are gaining more wealth. That won't be easy. Traditionally in North America and Europe, middle class has been defined less by wealth and more by education. There is often a distinction between working class in which people have only a high school education and middle class in which people have at least some college or university education. In the US and Canada about 2/3 of the population has at least some college or university education. Education is linked to income, but it of course is not always the case that middle class people make more money that working class people. Will these same sort of distinctions matter in China? It will be interesting to see.

Bringing this back to cameras, I think what will matter more than growth in income is whether people learn about photography, appreciate it as an art form, learn the basics of how to take good photographs, etc. They might have more money, but IMO, they will just end up buying cell phone cameras unless they learn about photography. So, I think people in China, India, and Indonesia (even as their incomes grow) and pretty much everywhere else too will only be likely to buy high end camera if they also learn about photography and that will matter more than their growth in income.



Jul 24, 2014 at 09:28 AM
Tariq Gibran
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p.7 #7 · p.7 #7 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Steve Spencer wrote:
Bringing this back to cameras, I think what will matter more than growth in income is whether people learn about photography, appreciate it as an art form, learn the basics of how to take good photographs, etc. They might have more money, but IMO, they will just end up buying cell phone cameras unless they learn about photography. So, I think people in China, India, and Indonesia (even as their incomes grow) and pretty much everywhere else too will only be likely to buy high end camera if they also learn about photography and that will matter more than
...Show more

I do believe that (education, etc.) will coincide with the growth of the middle class as that segment enjoys more leisure time to pursue, appreciate and learn about all of these traditional "bourgeoisie" concerns. Clearly though, cell phone cameras will only get better and better so that is certainly a huge barrier to future growth in the traditional camera markets. I see it becoming increasingly split more and more between Smartphone vs much higher end with the middle disappearing. I think that's the major trend. Again though, that higher end will enjoy huge growth in places like China simply as a result of the other socio-economic changes imo.



Jul 24, 2014 at 10:21 AM
Frogfish
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p.7 #8 · p.7 #8 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


carstenw wrote:
Interesting. So the statistics you earlier quoted, low-to-mid hundreds of millions, are stated with the same definition in mind? So, upwards of half of "official" China has their own house etc.? I find this hard to believe. Keep in mind how many kids there are, especially considering your comments on the count of children. Btw, the last I read the population of China was around 1.2 billion, not 1.5, never mind 1.8-2.0 billion. Are there really that many children being shuffled around? How many of them are middle class?


Firstly regarding Housing : Yes. You possible need to do some research on China to understand the whys and wherefores (if this truly interests you). Very few Chinese rent, probably well under 5% (just my guesstimate).

There is the traditional family homes (owned and lived in by 3 generations) and then there are the new upper middle class (who usually own huge amounts of property for investment purposes), there is the 'working middle class' who will buy an apartment either by themselves or (more usually) with the assistance of the family - they can almost not find a bride if they don't have a home for them to move into.
Then there are the rural families (farmers and the like) who all build their own homes. So again, yes, I'd say less than 5% of families don't own a home and that is because they are commercial migrants or just the urban very poor.

Population of China
Your 1.2 billion is far too low, though my estimate of 1.5 is maybe a little high, so unofficially possibly 1.7 - 1.9 billion. The OFFICIAL 2010 Census gave the population as 1.37 billion. If that's 1.4 billion now then I was only off by 100m, not much in terms of the whole population.

http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2011/china-census-results.aspx

Chinese Middle Class
Here's a few links for you and you can also do your own research since you seem incredulous of those presented :-

In 2000, a mere 4% of urban Chinese households were considered middle class. By 2012, that figure had grown to 66%. If current trends continue, by 2022 the middle class population will be 75% of urban households. That's nearly 630 million consumers -- nearly twice the entire population of the United States. :
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-middle-class-fueling-boom-133000919.html;_ylt=A0SO8x3lONFTClkA53tXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTE0b3BuMG1lBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMTQEY29sbwNncTEEdnRpZANRQkFDSzJfMQ--

Chinese Middle Class Income vs USA Middle CLass Income :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/branko-milanovic/winners-of-globalization-_b_4603454.html

China: total income by band 2010 and 2020 :
http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Driving-growth/Middle-class-growth-in-emerging-markets---China-and-India-tomorrow-s-middle-classes

China : Generational change and the rising prosperity of inland cities will power consumption for years to come :
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/consumer_and_retail/mapping_chinas_middle_class

China's Middle Class Population To Jump To 600 Mln. By 2020 :
http://www.rttnews.com/1997232/china-s-middle-class-population-to-jump-to-600-mln-by-2020.aspx

Pareto Chart - Chinese Middle Class :
http://www.shmula.com/pareto-in-the-wild-the-chinese-middle-class/8478/



Edited on Jul 24, 2014 at 12:31 PM · View previous versions



Jul 24, 2014 at 12:12 PM
Frogfish
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p.7 #9 · p.7 #9 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Steve Spencer wrote:
They might have more money, but IMO, they will just end up buying cell phone cameras unless they learn about photography. So, I think people in China, India, and Indonesia (even as their incomes grow) and pretty much everywhere else too will only be likely to buy high end camera if they also learn about photography and that will matter more than their growth in income.


You don't understand affluent Chinese very well Steve Buying the best of whatever they can afford, to display in front of their peers/friends, is all about face. Doesn't matter if they don't know how to use it (just use the Auto mode), not even what is officially best in the performance tables - just whatever costs the most* ! This is why Leica is probably the #3 seller in China behind Canon and then Nikon. At least it looks that way from all the Leica shops around

*partly in jest, mainly not*




Jul 24, 2014 at 12:17 PM
zhangyue
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p.7 #10 · p.7 #10 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Frogfish wrote:
You don't understand affluent Chinese very well Steve Buying the best of whatever they can afford, to display in front of their peers/friends, is all about face. Doesn't matter if they don't know how to use it (just use the Auto mode), not even what is officially best in the performance tables - just whatever costs the most* ! This is why Leica is probably the #3 seller in China behind Canon and then Nikon. At least it looks that way from all the Leica shops around

*partly in jest, mainly not*



That is the same thing happen everywhere in the world. hobbyist get best gear. I agree most you say, car, branded clothe, handbag, though I am not sure about camera gear. as lots of my wealthy friends buy car or fancy luxury items but not camera. They prefer prioritizing their money to branded clothe, car, house, especially mid class there.

The Leica store in Suzhou(which is #1 GDP city in China surpass Shanghai&Beijing) has been shrinking, and very seldom I see people use Leica in China.

Rich people in China don't care camera gear, at least not as much as other luxury items.



Jul 24, 2014 at 12:30 PM
Frogfish
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p.7 #11 · p.7 #11 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


zhangyue wrote:
That is the same thing happen everywhere in the world. hobbyist get best gear. I agree most you say, car, branded clothe, handbag, though I am not sure about camera gear. as lots of my wealthy friends buy car or fancy luxury items but not camera. They prefer prioritizing their money to branded clothe, car, house, especially mid class there.

The Leica store in Suzhou(which is #1 GDP city in China surpass Shanghai&Beijing) has been shrinking, and very seldom I see people use Leica in China.

Rich people in China don't care camera gear, at least not as much as other
...Show more

Ask your friends to check in the back of their cupboards - that's where they keep their cameras

My wife is from Wenzhou (you will know of this city) and has many very affluent friends, they all have expensive cameras, very rarely do they ever take them out, they have no idea how to use them and only ever mention them when they see me with my Nikons !

The largest camera mall in Shanghai has at least 3 Leica stores if not more and that's not including the Used Camera stores (probably another 3-4 over there). That is 3rd only to Nikon/Canon.




Jul 24, 2014 at 12:35 PM
zhangyue
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p.7 #12 · p.7 #12 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Frogfish wrote:
My wife is from Wenzhou (you will know of this city) and has many very affluent friends, they all have expensive cameras, very rarely do they ever take them out, they have no idea how to use them and only ever mention them when they see me with my Nikons !



That sounds about right I can echo that.

I merely doubt the population of this group which rich enough no longer care anything. From my experience, the high percentage rich people there either has no time or no taste for Camera. but that is just my guess, I may have lose the ground there.

You need have a rest, it is already way past mid-night over there




Jul 24, 2014 at 12:45 PM
Glenn NK
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p.7 #13 · p.7 #13 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Z250SA wrote:
Spot on!



I think the writer hit the nail squarely. I'm finding myself to be in the group that has become reasonably competent with my gear (so not much more to learn) and my interest in taking dozens of images has waned immensely (after you've shot every damn flower you can find at least ten times, it gets a trifle boring).

My 5DII and even my 30D, are both quite capable of achieving what I want(ed). I don't need any more lenses (a long one to do birds might keep me interested for awhile longer), and I've been through four tripods and have a keeper, so what's to buy?

Nothing.

Glenn




Jul 24, 2014 at 01:30 PM
carstenw
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p.7 #14 · p.7 #14 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Frog, there are so many articles around, written from a very wide varieties of points of view (and agendas) that it is almost impossible to find "the truth", and I am naturally very skeptical of many claims, not only about China, but about the world in general. There are simply many truths out there, many of which are mutually incompatible. Here is for example an article which paints a very dim picture of real estate in China for the middle class:

http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat11/sub71/item1822.html

More to my point is that what goes for middle class in China doesn't even reach the poverty line in many European countries, yet cameras are priced very similarly, leading to an obvious problem in affordability, relatively speaking. Please examine the following numbers, and realise that in spite of the similar costs, a Berlin middle class family has a disposable income on the order of several times that of a Chinese middle class family. How can this middle class segment be a huge potential source of camera sales? I don't see it.

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Germany&country2=China&city1=Berlin&city2=Shanghai

My theory is that the large number of camera sales so far has not been made by middle class Chinese families, but by upper middle class and "affluent" Chinese buyers, whose numbers are dramatically smaller than mere middle class families. The "Affluent" number 3% of the population, and start at $34000/year, according to one site I read, and the current upper middle class segment in China is also not large. The lower middle class tops out at $16000/year, and figuring rent and food costs, doesn't provide a lot of extra money for fancy cameras every few years.

Not only that, but the upcoming financial pressures on such families in China look dramatic compared to the projected future growth. China is quite simply getting more expensive at a pace significantly outpacing the income growth of a specific family. In other words, the definition of "middle class" may have to be revised many times in the coming years, as people expect higher quality of living (read: better hospitals, education, cleaner air, safer work conditions, more equality, more democracy, etc.), and more and more move to urban areas, and the net effect may well be that the number of middle class families by the definition of the day will level off and even start to decrease, as the wealth concentrates more and more among the ultra-rich.

I don't see the continued high sales and growth in China for the future that we have seen so far, at least not for long.



Jul 24, 2014 at 01:36 PM
jcolwell
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p.7 #15 · p.7 #15 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


Truth is often an matter of perspective.


Jul 24, 2014 at 01:54 PM
edwardkaraa
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p.7 #16 · p.7 #16 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


I don't want to get involved in the ongoing socio-economical debate Just want to observe that in Asia, photography is very popular, much more so than in the western part of the world. In Bangkok where I live, it's always surprising to me how many locals carry cameras and are enthusiastic about photography, regardless of their social status. Not talking of course about tourists, who are expected to be taking photos, but local Thai people. In comparison, I have rarely seen any locals with cameras in Europe. Anyone with a camera turns out to be most often a tourist.


Jul 24, 2014 at 02:19 PM
Access
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p.7 #17 · p.7 #17 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


I don't know what the situation is like in China.

What I see among my "enthusiast" friends and clubs is that the 2-3 year buying cycle no longer really applies. People are using 5+ year old cameras and no one really cares very much.

Year 2000 to around 2008, a lot of enthusiasts would upgrade to the 'latest and greatest thing' every 2-3 years.

Sure smartphones are also a large factor, there's no disputing that.



Jul 24, 2014 at 02:40 PM
rattymouse
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p.7 #18 · p.7 #18 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


edwardkaraa wrote:
I don't want to get involved in the ongoing socio-economical debate Just want to observe that in Asia, photography is very popular, much more so than in the western part of the world. In Bangkok where I live, it's always surprising to me how many locals carry cameras and are enthusiastic about photography, regardless of their social status. Not talking of course about tourists, who are expected to be taking photos, but local Thai people. In comparison, I have rarely seen any locals with cameras in Europe. Anyone with a camera turns out to be most often a tourist.
...Show more

Crack observation Edward. Asia is way more into photography than the west. I agree completely. I see more cameras here in Shanghai than ever, ever, saw in my hometown in the US.




Jul 24, 2014 at 03:26 PM
rattymouse
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p.7 #19 · p.7 #19 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


carstenw wrote:


My theory is that the large number of camera sales so far has not been made by middle class Chinese families, but by upper middle class and "affluent" Chinese buyers, whose numbers are dramatically smaller than mere middle class families. The "Affluent" number 3% of the population, and start at $34000/year, according to one site I read, and the current upper middle class segment in China is also not large. The lower middle class tops out at $16000/year, and figuring rent and food costs, doesn't provide a lot of extra money for fancy cameras every few years.

Not only that,
...Show more

In my personal experience, the middle class is doing pretty well here in China. I work for a very small company in China and this year, 5 of my coworkers have bought cars. The average price of these cars is 30,000 USD easy, with one person buying an Audi.

These are people who are between 20-30 years old, and only one is a manager, who bought a Honda.

Meanwhile, I ride the bus home.....

Edit: Make that age range 25-35...these are all college grads buying cars.


Edited on Jul 24, 2014 at 05:43 PM · View previous versions



Jul 24, 2014 at 03:28 PM
dasrocket
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p.7 #20 · p.7 #20 · The Continuing Collapse in Camera Sales


rattymouse wrote:
Crack observation Edward. Asia is way more into photography than the west. I agree completely. I see more cameras here in Shanghai than ever, ever, saw in my hometown in the US.




Not sure if this is a correct statement: if the end result of the photography being done by Westerners is mostly upload to social networks, then phones are the tool of choice; carrying more cameras can, but, does not necessarily mean "more into photography".

I don't have stats for this supposition, just a thought..



Jul 24, 2014 at 04:29 PM
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