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Archive 2014 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?

  
 
HRace
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Hi,

I'm new to FM but have been browsing this site for years and using Nikon for almost 10 years now (DSLRs).

I actually finally joined FM with the intent to buy / sell after browsing for "big glass" and drooling over the quality of lens sales here (compared to ebay, craigslist, etc.). Even KEH, though trusted, lacks the ability to discuss the lens with the previous owner. Eh, maybe no need for some of you, but it's a nice plus to being here.

I know there's plenty of mirrorless threads and I'm not necessarily here to debate the future of that, but is anyone uncertain enough (like me) to delay purchases of big lenses? Just curious.

I'm at a comfortable spot with my gear, been using the D700 for about 4 years and have a really nice collection of lenses (the trinity and 85 1.4G). I would LOVE a bigger lens (300 or 400 f2.8)....but I'm at the point where I'm really questioning what the future will hold and slightly unwilling to sink a ton of cash ($12K 400 f2.8 = $$$ to me!) with fear that some magic mirrorless silver bullet materializes from Fuji and takes the Nikon/Canon DSLR market down a few notches. Not a huge worry, but a minor concern!

Buying used on here made sense since the used lens quality seems amazing and almost all sellers have a long history on this forum. I can already hear the arguments to my question...."if you need a big lens now, then buy it". That's true. I have a few young kids and am mostly future planning for when soccer / baseball, etc. comes up. I really enjoy going to car races and the 70-200 had a bit more reach on my old DX D80 body! So a long lens would be a nice benefit with the FX body, though even 300 is hardly a lot of reach at the track.

I'm trying to avoid a mirrorless discussion but just wondered if I'm the only one struggling to sink a lot of money into even MORE Nikon gear given the changing landscape of equipment?

It could just be a coincidence but I don't recall a time in recent memory where the FM buy/sell forum had so many nice choices in big glass. There are multiple versions of Nikon 300 f2.8 lenses out there (AFS 1/2, VR1, etc)..a nice 200-400, etc. Maybe coincidence......but I fear some may be offloading due to Fuji system ramp ups! I have a close friend who is by no means dropping Nikon, but did start a complete Fuji XT1 system. He's pretty happy with it and it's great having a personal friend to discuss this with. We never really come to any conclusion other than that they both have their place. Probably many on here are the same. Thanks guys. I should have joined years ago but much prefer reading and learning to posting.



May 23, 2014 at 08:13 AM
Ho1972
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


My plan is to ride my current Nikon kit into the dirt, then buy a mirrorless system which, in all probability, will not be Nikon. Unless the big 2 have a few game-changers in their skunkworks departments, I think their time in the sun is done.

So, the short answer is yes. I'm done buying dSLR gear.



May 23, 2014 at 08:19 AM
HRace
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Thanks. I feel like that's where a lot of people are right now (so not necessarily a flood of lens sales yet due to offloading). Nikon keeps making it even tougher with every price increase. I can't even bring myself to upgrade to the 70-200 vr2, though I'm not using it where corner sharpness is a priority. I'm anxious to see a true telephoto from Fuji to gauge size even though it better be smaller than a comparable nikon fx lens since it's covering a smaller sensor. Also curious what aperture they design into their telephotos. Appreciate the feedback. I'll just keep cruising the buy sell forums and dreaming, and keeping an eye out on fujirumors to watch the "competition", all the while enjoying the heck out of the d700. Not a bad place to be and choices are good!


May 23, 2014 at 08:52 AM
RCicala
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Interesting thread (at least it will be until the fanboys get their pitchforks and torches). I haven't quite gone as far as thinking of abandoning SLRs. If for no other reason I simply can't get telephoto quality with mirrorless that approaches SLRs yet and I do shoot some wildlife and sports.

On the other hand, while I'm not ready to jump over to an A7r yet (too many flaws and too few lenses), it's an impressive first generation effort and I do find myself thinking the A8r might be my next camera. And then I see Pentax and now maybe Fuji coming out with fairly reasonably priced MF cameras. I think the end result is I'm probably not going to jump into the next CaNikon SLR upgrade cycle unless something really surprises me.



May 23, 2014 at 08:57 AM
Christian S
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


DSLR's will look funny to us all someday because of size and cost. However, we are a ways off before they go extinct. It really depends on your over all experience in knowing the advantages of owning a DSLR. Right now the mirrorless body is a bit behind in its overall abilities to be a competing tool for most professionals. I think it will get there. I think DSLR costs will go down as the mirrorless get better, I hope. I see a lot of us owning a mixed bag depending on performance and costs. I also think Sony has the lead and in time will have the lenses and the Mirrorless body that we all buy 1st. If Sony keeps doing things right we could see a flawless mirrorless that at least equals the D800 if not surpasses it for less money. It's going to be fun to watch. I don't think the DSLR is going to die overnight. I do think a lot of us will have mixed bags during transition.



May 23, 2014 at 09:32 AM
JoshI
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p.1 #6 · p.1 #6 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


I think long, fast teles will probably be the last bastion of the DSLR system. I dumped my personal DSLR kit last month and moved to a Fuji system, which has been an absolute joy. That said, I still use my D800 for work and I won't be getting rid of it any time soon. Maybe one day I'll be able to buy a 200/2 or a 300/2.8 from Fuji, but probably not in the near future and I think the entire camera market is ripe for disruption which means the mirrorless systems of today may never evolve far enough to support the R&D costs of a super-tele lineup.

Josh



May 23, 2014 at 09:49 AM
gdsf2
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p.1 #7 · p.1 #7 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


My problem is related but a bit different. I would like to invest in a mirrorless system as a travel camera but I am afraid, given many of these mounts are new, that they will be dumped by the manufacturers for something even better in the near to medium term. I mean, some of these brands, like Sony, have had a bunch of mounts. Also, if one or two of these brands really take off, will the others fold?

If it was a one-off purchase it would be worth the risk, but buying a camera system with several lenses this is a real concern.

Jerry



May 23, 2014 at 09:53 AM
Mark_L
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p.1 #8 · p.1 #8 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


The mirrorless area is just too volatile in the near term to invest in imo. It will be a good few years before things get clearer in terms of who the winners and losers will be and how the systems will shape up.

Each model by sony and fuji edges closer but we still have some way to go even away from stuff like wildlife and sports.



May 23, 2014 at 10:01 AM
BenV
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p.1 #9 · p.1 #9 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


No, if I need something, I buy it now. I don't care what comes out later. My camera gear won't magically stop working.


May 23, 2014 at 10:06 AM
sjms
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p.1 #10 · p.1 #10 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


mirrorless is a mess. too many "proof of concept" proposal products out there that are real rough around the edges.

Edited on May 23, 2014 at 10:13 AM · View previous versions



May 23, 2014 at 10:09 AM
HRace
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p.1 #11 · p.1 #11 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


You guys are all spot on. Thanks for the discussion. There are so many factors that it's not a one size fits all answer (portrait, sports, low light, studio only, Etc). I agree that the tele end of the spectrum seems like the main sticking point that mirrorless doesn't have a compelling alternative to yet. I'm anxious to give mirrorless a try, but in a bit. I'm not an early adopter. I agree with the post above that some of these early systems are really impressive for such early iterations. It's just weird to think of abandoning the dream of a Nikon super tele. It's possible that I won't have saved up enough before there's a viable alternative.


May 23, 2014 at 10:11 AM
HRace
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p.1 #12 · p.1 #12 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


BenV: your argument is what keeps me looking at nikon gear. Worst case I'm lugging heavier gear if somerhjng else magically appears but I'm still getting the photos it want vs stuck talking about it! Thanks.


May 23, 2014 at 10:14 AM
thedruid
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p.1 #13 · p.1 #13 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


If you monitor the buy sell board here you can already see a big change in the past six months or so, a lot of systems for sale plus big glass too a bunch of D4 bodies hovering close to $4k. I've tried most of the mirrorless and like the Fuji best but the X trans sensor and which RAW converter is best is still an issue for a lot of the work I do.


May 23, 2014 at 10:16 AM
the solitaire
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p.1 #14 · p.1 #14 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


DSLR's might look funny some time in the future. They did look pretty funny back in the 1950's too,

Back then serious people used medium format because the negatives offered so much more detail. When 35mm film was developed with finer grain medium format cameras moved to the studio for most.

Film delivered more detail and cameras became more capable, soon outclassing medium format in some areas.

Still though, even after the uprising of digital photography, medium format cameras are still around and used in various fields of photography because 35mm never managed to fulfill everyones needs.

My guess is that the same will happen with DSLR's. Mirrorless will play a big role in future developments but even if it's just for ergonomics I don't see DSLR pro bodies disappearing anytime soon. Mirrorless is nice and good, and for casual photography I would love an F3 or FM sized mirrorless full frame camera with full manual controls and an S mount (plus F mount converter) but when using pro grade long tele lenses a camera without a decent grip, size and user interface ergonomics will be a real nuisance.

In the consumer end I can see DSLR's disappear completely. Let's say mirrorless will replace the D3x00 and D5x00 camera lines (and maybe the D6x0 line as well) within the next few years. From the D7x00 camera lines upwards however I think controls, ergonomics and a certain amount of volume and mass to aid camera handling will remain important enough to at least stick with the DSLR form and shape.



May 23, 2014 at 10:21 AM
binary visions
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p.1 #15 · p.1 #15 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


I don't have any doubt - none whatsoever - that mirrorless will eventually completely replace the mirrored viewfinder.

Electronics are getting better every day - batteries are bigger and more powerful, parts are more efficient, screens are higher resolution and processors are pushing those pixels around faster. A properly designed EVF can be virtually indistinguishable from an OVF, and can offer a lot more functionality.

That said, what you're really saying, HRace, is that another brand will offer a feature that's really desirable to you. That feature is mirrorless right now, but it's really no different from any other feature - certain brands have been the first to offer video, or sophisticated flash systems, or whatever big feature is coming next. So, my recommendation: buy what you need. You could worry yourself to death that some other brand is going to come up with an innovation. Nikon will eventually go mirrorless, too.



May 23, 2014 at 10:57 AM
jsv_20
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p.1 #16 · p.1 #16 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Glass, handling, and speed are things that the mirrorless cameras from Sony are lacking. The a7 is not the most intuitive camera to learn. With the added grip and an adaptor its size can be rather awkward. It's AF is slow compared to my D700.

Having said that in terms of IQ the Sony a7 easily trumps my D700. But the D700, despite its age, can do things that leave my Sony a7 in the dust. I'm keeping both. I like the D700 and clients seem to like the file sizes. The a7 is more for personal projects and for travel.

a7 with 135 f2 and D700 with 135 f/2 DC




May 23, 2014 at 11:15 AM
HRace
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p.1 #17 · p.1 #17 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Binary visions: I'm not so much cross shopping features. Ultimately I just want the highest quality print or digital file from the money I'm willing to spend on equipment. I've started printing bigger and bigger and the d700 files are a touch small at 20x30 and up, especially if cropped at all. That leaves me starting to think about d4(s?) or something with at least 16mp with a touch cleaner higher Iso shots also. At the point a new body and a long tele are considered, it's a good opportunity to pause and evaluate the digital gear landscape, that's all. My direct photographer friends have decided to dig Into mirrorless but I'm a bit time constrained with work and kids and have the nikon system pretty well figured out for my end use so I'm not looking to re learn another system unless it's looking like a true replacement. Honestly right now if I'm spending any money, it's still with Nikon. Besides telephoto (300mm +) lust, I don't see a solid ttl flash (system + range) that I feel I could step Into and start using quickly with my style of usage.


May 23, 2014 at 12:19 PM
Paul Mo
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p.1 #18 · p.1 #18 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


Mark_L wrote:
The mirrorless area is just too volatile in the near term to invest in imo. It will be a good few years before things get clearer in terms of who the winners and losers will be and how the systems will shape up.


Good points and in subtle ways many current cameras are seemingly deliberately crippled - I am seeing no cameras that will likely become classics.

My take on it is that cameras should be simplified placing IQ, ergonomics, weather sealing and responsiveness in terms of lag and AF, et al, above all else. Essentially gives us something like a fullframe FM2 yet faster and sealed.



May 23, 2014 at 01:16 PM
runamuck
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p.1 #19 · p.1 #19 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


No. You can buy now and get a lot of great shots or you can spend all your time waiting on that "next best thing" that may or may not happen.


May 23, 2014 at 01:38 PM
rw11
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p.1 #20 · p.1 #20 · Future of mirrorless causing any buying paralysis?


I recently upgraded from DX to FX. Since I have a lot of $$ invested in lenses (back to one that was AI'd) I am not going to try and sell all of that.

I expect Nikon will bring out a mirrorless DX or FX body in the future, maybe the near future. I might buy that.



May 23, 2014 at 02:20 PM
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