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Archive 2014 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?

  
 
fraga
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p.5 #1 · p.5 #1 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


In a way, I agree with Milan, technology as matured, specially in DSLR.
Ten years ago (the time frame you people have been talking about) I could buy a 20D with 8MP.
Now, I can buy a 7D with 18MP (or 70D with 20MP).
Not that much of an increase in 10 years, at least not as much as Krementz posts would make us expect from such a time frame.

On the other hand, 10 years ago (give or a take a few) a cell phone was just a cell phone and you made phone calls with it and not much more.
Now, we have smartphones that are basically computers that fit in the palm of your hand.
Example: last year, my wife was at work and she called me on my cell phone and told me she needed a photocopy of my ID card, urgent.
I told her "wait just a minute, don't hang up".
I exited the call screen, opened my camera application, took a picture of my ID card, uploaded it and sent it by email. I then told her "it's already in your email, just print it".
I than hang up and realized what I just did.
That was amazing!
I didn't even have to hang up.
If someone told me that 10 years ago I would be able to do something like that today, I wouldn't have believed.

A top of the line smartphone is basically a computer.
In fact, they have some better specs than laptops had a few years ago.
A samsung S4 has better specs than my current laptop... and it has already been surpassed (spec-wise) by LG and Sony models.

In some areas, technologies have evolved a lot in the last 10 years.
Others, not so much.

I guess both Milan and Krementz are correct in a way.

But I have to admit: I seriously doubt that in 10 years cameras "will have terabytes (or petabytes) of storage, run at terahertz speeds, and have electronic doodads I cannot even imagine".

Hope I'm wrong, though....



Feb 17, 2014 at 06:00 AM
johnctharp
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p.5 #2 · p.5 #2 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


I think, in ten years, cameras will have gotten simpler, and smarter.

Imagine the camera firmware being able to determine the best available exposure settings for each shot based on prioritized variables, i.e., 'find the appropriate shutter speed to keep the sharp shot with the appropriate aperture to get the subject in focus with the lowest ISO possible to prevent noise', while being able to determine how the camera handles when reaching each successive limitation.

And what if we can, instead of selecting AF points, select amongst subjects? Say, point the camera at the offensive line, then use the joystick to select the star running back, and have the camera track him throughout the following play?



Feb 17, 2014 at 08:01 AM
howard
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p.5 #3 · p.5 #3 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


johnctharp wrote:
I think, in ten years, cameras will have gotten simpler, and smarter.

Imagine the camera firmware being able to determine the best available exposure settings for each shot based on prioritized variables, i.e., 'find the appropriate shutter speed to keep the sharp shot with the appropriate aperture to get the subject in focus with the lowest ISO possible to prevent noise', while being able to determine how the camera handles when reaching each successive limitation.

And what if we can, instead of selecting AF points, select amongst subjects? Say, point the camera at the offensive line, then use the joystick to select
...Show more

And there will be a propeller on each camera so that they can hover over to the destination and snap away. Photographers, on the other hand, will be obsolete.



Feb 17, 2014 at 08:09 AM
PhilDrinkwater
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p.5 #4 · p.5 #4 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


johnctharp wrote:
I think, in ten years, cameras will have gotten simpler, and smarter.

Imagine the camera firmware being able to determine the best available exposure settings for each shot based on prioritized variables, i.e., 'find the appropriate shutter speed to keep the sharp shot with the appropriate aperture to get the subject in focus with the lowest ISO possible to prevent noise', while being able to determine how the camera handles when reaching each successive limitation.

And what if we can, instead of selecting AF points, select amongst subjects? Say, point the camera at the offensive line, then use the joystick to select
...Show more

I agree. MP and high ISO and shadow quality are *coming to the end* of there being any point in increasing them. Another 5-10 years and there won't really be any reason to improve them any more.

Instead it'll be about making the photographers job easier so they can concentrate on what they should be concentrating on - the subject.



Feb 17, 2014 at 08:33 AM
johnctharp
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p.5 #5 · p.5 #5 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


howard wrote:
And there will be a propeller on each camera so that they can hover over to the destination and snap away. Photographers, on the other hand, will be obsolete.


I expect drone photography to get real interesting soon- the flexibility exposed will be very tempting for many.



Feb 17, 2014 at 08:57 AM
krementz
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p.5 #6 · p.5 #6 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


fraga wrote:
In a way, I agree with Milan, technology as matured, specially in DSLR.
Ten years ago (the time frame you people have been talking about) I could buy a 20D with 8MP.
Now, I can buy a 7D with 18MP (or 70D with 20MP).
Not that much of an increase in 10 years, at least not as much as Krementz posts would make us expect from such a time frame.


My 20D has pretty poor ISO 3200; 800 was usable. My 6D has pretty poor ISO 102,400, and usable 12,800. I used a 1 GB CF card on the 20D back then; I use a 16 GB SD card in the 6D. I needed a lot more patience on the 20D for the buffer to clear, even with the smaller images. The 6D has GPS, HD video, and can use wi-fi; the 20D doesn't. The LCD pixel count has gone from 100,000 to 1,000,000. The price of the 20D then and 6D now are about the same: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canon_EOS_20D. The 20D was announced August 2004 and the 6D September 2012, so about eight years.

BTW, I still have the 20D and still use it. From a marketing perspective, the 20D is extinct: even the cheapest Rebel "outspecs" it. Functionally, it still is fine.



Feb 17, 2014 at 09:38 AM
fraga
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p.5 #7 · p.5 #7 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


Krementz, You are right, I agree with you, I just mentioned specifically MP solely because that was what the thread was about (another 18MP camera).

High ISO has become much, much, much better.
But do you think it will get better by the same magnitude in the next 10 years (serious question, I would like your opinion).
I ask because I feel that high ISO gains are starting to become incrementally slower.
The 5DMIII and 70D are somewhat better than their predecessors in this regard, but I am under the impression that in these two specific cases, software is more likely the reason behind it, not exactly better sensor technology.

Edit: Obviously I meant "software is more likely the reason", not "hardware", like I wrote initially.

Edited on Feb 17, 2014 at 12:11 PM · View previous versions



Feb 17, 2014 at 10:25 AM
ggreene
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p.5 #8 · p.5 #8 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


johnctharp wrote:
I expect drone photography to get real interesting soon- the flexibility exposed will be very tempting for many.


Yeah, I agree. Photographers have limited access to events because of where you can put them. Drones with cameras are far more flexible in where they can go and what angles they can get. They also don't complain about working conditions and they don't need medical benefits.

Still photography will be around for a while but video will absorb it eventually and we will just grab a frame out of the data stream. Canon is right to be pushing forward in video.



Feb 17, 2014 at 10:51 AM
howard
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p.5 #9 · p.5 #9 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


ggreene wrote:
Yeah, I agree. Photographers have limited access to events because of where you can put them. Drones with cameras are far more flexible in where they can go and what angles they can get. They also don't complain about working conditions and they don't need medical benefits.

Still photography will be around for a while but video will absorb it eventually and we will just grab a frame out of the data stream. Canon is right to be pushing forward in video.


Somewhere along the line the sarcasm is lost (my original post was intended to be a sarcasm).



Feb 17, 2014 at 11:20 AM
Monito
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p.5 #10 · p.5 #10 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


ggreene wrote:
Still photography will be around for a while but video will absorb it eventually and we will just grab a frame out of the data stream.


Nonsense. You've never tried to shoot an event that way and "grab a frame" out of the stream. If you think you have post-event workflow issues now, try adding frame selection from hundreds of thousands of frames to your workflow.

Video lighting is a very different discipline from still photography lighting.

Your claim is very much like claiming that still photography absorbed drawing. Yet we see your avatar is a drawn logo and drawn graphics surround us.

http://pubpages.unh.edu/~ggreene/icon.jpg



Feb 17, 2014 at 11:34 AM
krementz
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p.5 #11 · p.5 #11 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


fraga wrote:
Krementz, You are right, I agree with you, I just mentioned specifically MP solely because that was what the thread was about (another 18MP camera).

High ISO has become much, much, much better.
But do you think it will get better by the same magnitude in the next 10 years (serious question, I would like your opinion).
I ask because I feel that high ISO gains are starting to become incrementally slower.
The 5DMIII and 70D are somewhat better than their predecessors in this regard, but I am under the impression that in these two specific cases, hardware is more likely the reason behind
...Show more

fraga, ISO has not increased as fast as other microelectronics, and I do not think it in the future, either. However, once ISO gets into the multi-100,000 range, an "exposure" may be multiple shots measured in microseconds, rather than a single exposure measure in milliseconds. Having hundreds or thousands of stacked microsecond exposures on a very large sensor should give some tremendous opportunities for noise reduction, image stabilization, and motion blur control. In dim light, the total exposure could still be say 0.5 seconds, but saved as 1,000 images. Sampling the entire stack means no gain is needed, separating them out enables motion control, and highly redundant date should enable tremendous noise control.

The traditional ISO measurement number probably becomes meaningless or incalculable, but the marketing types will "translate" it to a pseudo-ISO that sounds sexy. ISO 1 million, anybody? Perhaps multiple sensor arrays, similar to the Foveon that SIgma is working on, will be used. Already stacked images are used in astrophotography; I see this just being extended by an order of magnitude or two, with a huge amount of software processing to account for motion.

Most images, even in low light, have basically two components. One is frozen, eg, the background, rocks, floor, furniture, etc that all stay constant in relation to each other. Motion blue from the camera can be eliminated. There is some software already that does this to limited extent. The other part is the moving part, the person or football or racecar, in which most of the elements stay constant in relation to each other, and move as a group. A football stays fairly constant in shape and size, moving against the background. Isolate it, and software can then reassemble as a fixed object. More complex items, such as a human dancing or throwing a ball means dividing up the images into an arm, a leg, eyebrows, etc.

Some artificial intelligence should be able to identify specific items and keep the adjustments "reasonable". For example a face has two eyes, so never calculate a third eye in a few frames, or move the eye sockets against the skull. A hand has 5 fingers, etc. A basketball is round with a very limited amount of deflection. Load a lookup table of items with known properties to improve the algorithm. Branches may bend, bones don't, balls may deform, rocks don't, waves and flames have definable shapes, buildings are vertical and horizontal, beachballs deform more than golfballs, waterfalls flow downhill, planes fly forward, etc.

Certainly there can be images engineered that could fool the algorithm and make comic interpretations, but it would probably work for 99.99% of real images. "Funhouses" with nothing at 90 deg, mannequins made of distortable rubber, highly precise placement of objects and shapes that fool a human eye would probably also fool the electronic one, too.

So, the real ISO may not get better than 100,000, but the effective ISO may be in the millions.

It will be a fun future.



Feb 17, 2014 at 11:49 AM
ggreene
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p.5 #12 · p.5 #12 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


Monito wrote:
Nonsense. You've never tried to shoot an event that way and "grab a frame" out of the stream. If you think you have post-event workflow issues now, try adding frame selection from hundreds of thousands of frames to your workflow.

Video lighting is a very different discipline from still photography lighting.


It's not going to happen in the near future but way down the line that may well be what happens. Obviously, the level of gear will change dramatically over time as image processing tools evolve and get better. No part of the photographers tool chest is standing still. It is all moving forward. Video and still lighting may be different disciplines today but who knows what will be designed in the future. How many products/processes have converged over time as technology moves forward? Plenty. It would be shortsighted to think that video and still photography will ALWAYS be separate disciplines.



Edited on Feb 17, 2014 at 12:00 PM · View previous versions



Feb 17, 2014 at 11:59 AM
EB-1
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p.5 #13 · p.5 #13 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


howard wrote:
And there will be a propeller on each camera so that they can hover over to the destination and snap away. Photographers, on the other hand, will be obsolete.

johnctharp wrote:
I expect drone photography to get real interesting soon- the flexibility exposed will be very tempting for many.

ggreene wrote:
Yeah, I agree. Photographers have limited access to events because of where you can put them. Drones with cameras are far more flexible in where they can go and what angles they can get. They also don't complain about working conditions and they don't need medical benefits.


But surely the spectators will complain when the drones malfunction and cause personal injury or death.

EBH



Feb 17, 2014 at 12:00 PM
ggreene
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p.5 #14 · p.5 #14 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


EB-1 wrote:
But surely the spectators will complain when the drones malfunction and cause personal injury or death.

EBH


We already have tethered cameras going across stadiums. I would say the natural progression of technology going forward would be to free those cameras from those cables. Sure, there is always a risk of malfunction but we deal with that everyday. How many planes fly above your head at any one time?



Feb 17, 2014 at 12:05 PM
Monito
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p.5 #15 · p.5 #15 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


ggreene wrote:
Video and still lighting may be different disciplines today but who knows what will be designed in the future.


It's not a question of different equipment, though there is some of that.

The deployment (setting up, laying out, arranging) of lighting is different because it has different requirements, aesthetically (artistically, as it were).



Feb 17, 2014 at 12:14 PM
fraga
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p.5 #16 · p.5 #16 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


krementz, many thanks for that post.
Much appreciated.

BTW, in my previous post, obviously I meant "software is more likely the reason", not "hardware", like I wrote initially.



Feb 17, 2014 at 12:15 PM
Monito
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p.5 #17 · p.5 #17 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


EB-1 wrote:
But surely the spectators will complain when the drones malfunction and cause personal injury or death.


Plus operator lack of attention (not just equipment failure).

Not to mention the noise of 100 drones and the interference with sight lines.

Think of hordes of large insects.




Feb 17, 2014 at 12:17 PM
krementz
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p.5 #18 · p.5 #18 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


Monito, I can't imagine the NFL will allow anyone (unless authorized) to bring a drone to football stadium, much less the NBA with a drone in Madison Square Garden. "Hordes" is a bit of exaggeration, although a nice mental image.

I think official drones will soon be omnipresent at major events; they are much more maneuverable than a blimp.


Monito wrote:
Plus operator lack of attention (not just equipment failure).

Not to mention the noise of 100 drones and the interference with sight lines.

Think of hordes of large insects.





Feb 17, 2014 at 12:39 PM
jcolwell
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p.5 #19 · p.5 #19 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


In Canada, it's currently illegal to fly a drone for commercial purposes. This recently put the kibosh on a concert drone-delivery project being worked on by a western brewery. Too bad. I could do with an air-dropped brewsky. Puts new meaning on the word "brewsky", too.


Feb 17, 2014 at 12:51 PM
ggreene
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p.5 #20 · p.5 #20 · Did I get it right? Canon just released another 18MP DSLR?


Monito wrote:
Plus operator lack of attention (not just equipment failure).
Not to mention the noise of 100 drones and the interference with sight lines.
Think of hordes of large insects.


I don't see hundreds of drones in the near term but could easily see one or two by the company doing the broadcast/streaming of the event. Looking further out in time you can easily see drones becoming smaller and smaller with perhaps a nano-like technology solving a lot of these issues.




Feb 17, 2014 at 01:35 PM
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