philber Offline Upload & Sell: Off
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itai195 wrote:
I pointed this out in the A7 poll thread as well, but I do think Thom has a legitimate point when he says "if you bring out a new system and start from scratch with lenses, so can everyone else". Maybe not Olympus, given their financial situation, but there's not much stopping Nikon, Canon, Fuji, etc from competing with Sony on this front. What unique advantage does Sony have other than first mover status?
I think that there is quite a lot stopping Nikon, Canon, Fuji from competing on this front. The obvious point is called sensors. Fuji and Nikon don't make their own. Nikon buy their sensors from Sony. They obviously did a deal on the D800 that prevented Sony from releasing a FF DSLR from using the 36MP type for a while. But Sony are in the driving seat, and Nikon can't force Sony to sell them a sensor if Sony don't want to. And Sony won't want to jeopardize their rise in the camera market. Ditto Fuji. Not that there is a surfeit of other C-MOS sensor manufacturers with a FF offering. Look at the trouble Leica had to go to get theirs for the Type 240. And look at how many times Canon have repackaged the same sensors, apparently because their sensor fab is behind Sony's and they haven't yet made the huge investment for a new fab that would let them compete with the better Sony sensors.
The second advantage is that Sony have been at the mirrorless market for longer, and with more intent. Their card, from the first NEX, was clearly small size, and they have learned lots of tricks from that. NEX experience helped RX, RX experience helped A7. To the extent that Sony arguably own not one but 3 sub-segments in the mirrorless market. One is the best compact camera, due to its large sensor and Zeiss lens (RX 100). Another is the only compact FF camera (RX-1). Then pocketable FF interchangeable lens cameras with A7. Not counting the sales of NEX, where in APS-C sized sensors, there is essentially only Fuji to compete with, and Panalympus if you don't want the largest sensor in class.
The third advantage is that Sony don't have that much to lose in DSLRs as they cannibalize the segment with RX, NEX and A7. The reverse is true for Canikon, who are obviously playing a game of protecting DSLR's (see Canon's latest midget-sized offering, and Nikon's DF) rather than conquering new market share.
That is already quite a lot IMHO, and that doesn't even include the rumour that Sony will be ready in 2015 with a non-Bayer 56Mp FF sensor. In analogue (film) days, making lenses ruled the game because the camera body had little influence on the IQ. The reverse is true in digital. Sensors and related electronics have a huge influence on IQ, so making your own sensors is a key strategic asset. Sony have it, and play it. Canon have it, and don't play it. Nikon don't have it and can't (they are just not large enough to have enough volume for that sort of investment). Fuji and Panasonic could, but just aren't there right now. And Olympus is apparently the worst off, because they are cash poor with a business draining their cash. Eventually, their business will be folded into Sony's, who have already made which, in Japan, spell "takeover".
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