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Archive 2013 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?
  
 
Gunzorro
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p.1 #1 · p.1 #1 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


I wondered about the Nikon 1-series when it was unveiled, and how strong a market it might have.

As we've debated here the merits of M43/Nex vs. the flexibility of DSLR systems, the mirrorless sales have seemed to plateau in those markets as well.

Interesting news here about these subjects. Sort of implies a reasoning to Canon's conservative immersion into mirrorless ICL cameras to date.

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08/08/nikon-cuts-2013-sales-forecast-citing-poor-mirrorless-camera-sales



Aug 08, 2013 at 11:33 PM
FlyPenFly
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p.1 #2 · p.1 #2 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


I wonder who will be left in five years.


Aug 08, 2013 at 11:36 PM
Gunzorro
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p.1 #3 · p.1 #3 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


The Reuters article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/08/us-nikon-earnings-idUSBRE9770EH20130808



Aug 08, 2013 at 11:51 PM
philip_pj
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p.1 #4 · p.1 #4 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Thom Hogan from five months back...looking back with the FF NEX almost upon us...

"That the EOS 100D and EOS M and the NEX systems have a same-sized sensor means that Sony has no clear marketing position of their own based upon specifications. The easy things to claim, like "bigger sensor" is going away for them.

The fact that Sony Alpha DSLRs couldn't make inroads in market share against the Canon and Nikon models should scare Sony: now the elephants are dancing in a turf they thought they might have more time to develop. So what is it Sony? What's the advantage of a NEX? (Please note that I'm not saying there isn't an advantage; I'm not speaking of my personal opinion about their cameras here, I'm asking what their effective marketing response is going to be with the elephant clearly in the room with them.)

Of all the participants in mirrorless, I think Sony has the most to worry about with the EOS 100D and M pairing."

Said it before, will say it again - FF changes everything in mirrorless. Sony's most important camera, coming soon. And the RX cameras are not doing bad either, Thom, tried one lately?



Aug 09, 2013 at 01:49 AM
jcolwell
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p.1 #5 · p.1 #5 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


FlyPenFly wrote:
I wonder who will be left in five years.


Me, hopefully.

You, too.



Aug 09, 2013 at 01:54 AM
millsart
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p.1 #6 · p.1 #6 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Isn't the 1 system one of the top selling in the Asian market though ?

Its of course not a huge seller in the US, at least until it dropped to current blowout pricing, but just try to find a 32mm f1.2 in stock anywhere and it shows that there is some demand for the system.

heck, my $249 camera purchase has turned into $1300 spend on lens in the past 2 weeks. If Nikon keeps rolling out some ultra fast glass at reasonable prices, they could have a pretty good thing on their hands from all the people who have been picking up the ultra cheap v1's.

Really if they could do a V3, but with a RX100 20meg sensor, that could really be something pretty cool.



Aug 09, 2013 at 02:25 AM
itai195
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p.1 #7 · p.1 #7 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


If the 1 series had some more physical control points and lower pricing, I think I'd own one. Their autofocus capabilities are a major advantage. I think Nikon missed the fact that mirrorless is basically an enthusiast niche right now, and they made line of cameras that aimed too low in features and too high in pricing.


Aug 09, 2013 at 03:45 AM
Krosavcheg
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p.1 #8 · p.1 #8 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Survival of the fittest...


Aug 09, 2013 at 03:48 AM
eno789
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p.1 #9 · p.1 #9 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Also the 1 series is not a good system for adapting manual lenses - Manual exposure only.
I can easily deal with manual focus with auto metering, or manual metering occasionally when it's needed, but limiting auto metering to Nikon lens and Nikon adapter seems too much hassle.



Aug 09, 2013 at 05:37 AM
millsart
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p.1 #10 · p.1 #10 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


eno789 wrote:
Also the 1 series is not a good system for adapting manual lenses - Manual exposure only.
I can easily deal with manual focus with auto metering, or manual metering occasionally when it's needed, but limiting auto metering to Nikon lens and Nikon adapter seems too much hassle.


Not a lot of point using legacy glass on a 1" sensor though, when there are APS-C (and maybe soon even FF) options in the NEX line etc. Sort of seems like one of those things where even if you could, would anyone really do it ?

Just like you don't see much MF glass (for the most part) on the even larger sensor MFT cameras


Where the 1 system does shine though, is with modern Nikon glass and the FT-1 adapter, at least for those who already are Nikon DSLR shooters. I can throw the v1 on my 200-400 and I've got an equiv 1080mm f4 zoom, that still have VR, and that can not only do AF-S but also AF-C tracking, and all for the cost of a little $191 adapter. Turn a 70-200 into a 540mm f4 zoom etc

Of course this is only practical if your already a Nikon shooter. Don't think anyone is going to go buy a $5000+ 200-400 f4 zoom just to use on a $249 camera, but if you've already got the glass, IMHO its a no brainer to add on a V1 for a few hundred bucks. Its nearly cheaper than adding a 2x TC, and you gain some other cool features like 30 and 60fps shooting.

Nikon blew it for a long time by not letting the FT-1 do AF-C tracking, and a lot of people were interested in this when the cameras first came out, but they finally updated the f/w to allow it and it works great.



Aug 09, 2013 at 06:00 AM
 

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akul
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p.1 #11 · p.1 #11 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Thom also mentioned repeatedly that biggest problem with 1 system is the pricing. I agree with that point. Too expensive for what it is. Other thing Japanese manufacture really needs to be aware / careful about for marketing in the US at least, is the power of Internet opinion. 1 system created almost no ripple in the Internet talk, without the 'me too' effect caused by the word of mouth combined with lukewarm reviews ( wrong censor choice ? Should have used the same censor as RX100 ) , high pricing ( and the cut throat price cut = no confidence ) , unattractive appearance, it is no surprise they did not sell.


Aug 09, 2013 at 10:38 AM
Tariq Gibran
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p.1 #12 · p.1 #12 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


millsart wrote:
Isn't the 1 system one of the top selling in the Asian market though ?

Its of course not a huge seller in the US, at least until it dropped to current blowout pricing, but just try to find a 32mm f1.2 in stock anywhere and it shows that there is some demand for the system.

heck, my $249 camera purchase has turned into $1300 spend on lens in the past 2 weeks. If Nikon keeps rolling out some ultra fast glass at reasonable prices, they could have a pretty good thing on their hands from all the people who have been
...Show more

The problem would appear to be profitability. It doesn't sound like Nikon is willing or able to pull a Sony (attempt to buy market share by giving away cameras). Selling ultra cheap V1's with the outside chance they will find a huge base of customers like you who will spend a lot on fast glass for their small sensor camera is probably not going to work (Nikon's data seems to suggest anyway).



Aug 09, 2013 at 12:02 PM
rattymouse
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p.1 #13 · p.1 #13 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Tariq Gibran wrote:
The problem would appear to be profitability. It doesn't sound like Nikon is willing or able to pull a Sony (attempt to buy market share by giving away cameras). Selling ultra cheap V1's with the outside chance they will find a huge base of customers like you who will spend a lot on fast glass for their small sensor camera is probably not going to work (Nikon's data seems to suggest anyway).


None of the mirrorless players are profitable with their camera divisions. Olympus is losing their shirt, as is Panasonic. Sony *might* be making money, but barely if true. Fujifilm continues to lose money with their digital camera division year after year.

Canon and Nikon are the only solid, reliable companies that consistently (not always) earn money selling cameras.




Aug 09, 2013 at 01:21 PM
MarcG19
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p.1 #14 · p.1 #14 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Gunzorro wrote:
I wondered about the Nikon 1-series when it was unveiled, and how strong a market it might have.

As we've debated here the merits of M43/Nex vs. the flexibility of DSLR systems, the mirrorless sales have seemed to plateau in those markets as well.

Interesting news here about these subjects. Sort of implies a reasoning to Canon's conservative immersion into mirrorless ICL cameras to date.

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08/08/nikon-cuts-2013-sales-forecast-citing-poor-mirrorless-camera-sales


IMO, Canon is not "conservative", it's "last in and first out", at least in the US. That being said, the rumors are that it'll put out APS-C mirrorless in the next year, which I think makes sense as a replacement for the low-end series (less parts, more profit margin).

The Nikon 1's problem is that Nikon has no clear answer to the question "Why should one buy this as opposed to the other Nikon offerings at the same price level?" The slow lens rollout (lack of a wide lens killed it for me when I was interested) and the high price also deterred people on the enthusiast side, I think. Why should one buy a J1 versus a Coolpix-whatever? Why should one buy a V1 versus a D3100? The $800 to $350 firesale was also detrimental: they would have been much better pricing it consistently between the consumer coolpixes and the D3x00. And what's the difference between the J3 and S1? But instead their lineup is a confusing mess, especially if you're open to buying a non- interchangable lens camera.

And the rumors of a cheap (smaller?) DSLR at best smacks of copying the Canon SL. At worst, it suggests Nikon has no clue about the 1's problems and are basically letting it starve to death.

As far as "full frame" mirrorless: I'm sure it'll get a lot of attention. It will also sell well if they correctly gauge the market. But, IMO, the market for this is not that big: maybe a good amount of the Leica enthusiast market, maybe a number of people who own full frame cameras or a people looking to upgrade their NEXes. But I would be surprised if Sony will be able to get a huge number of sales because the full-frame enthusiast market is not that big, and already saturated with the 5DM3, D800, 6D and D600. Sony's distribution channels, at least in the US, is not as good as Canikon. I also am skeptical of their ability to put out native full frame NEX lenses.



Aug 09, 2013 at 07:53 PM
sflxn
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p.1 #15 · p.1 #15 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


This topic has been discussed on Alt forum so many times in the last two months. My current thinking is that mirrorless may not own the future as we had thought. It's not even clear if DSLRs will hold onto their position of strength over the next few years. It's always taken for granted in these threads that Canon and Nikon will weather through this, but I think the forces at work are so strong, their positions are not guaranteed.

Outside of the professional and enthusiast market, photography have largely migrated to smartphones. A lot of people claim it's because it's good enough. I think that's the wrong assessment. Smartphone photography has taken over not because of the improved quality of the images but because it offers more than just the ability to take an image. The ability to modify the image, instantly share the images, and have people comment on them has changed society's view of photography. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. I say, a picture that can be instantly shared and commented on is worth a million words. Photography is worth what people who take them and what people who appreciate them decide they are worth. With trillions of images taken every year, the value of individual images decreases. It decreases even more if photos are taken and never shared or printed. To me, the value people place on photography hasn't decreased. It's the value of photographs that are taken, not edited, not shared, not printed that has taken a nose dive. I believe this is the force that is wrecking havoc on P&S and mirrorless. Who's to say it won't eventually effect DSLR sales too? I think it will. A year ago, we thought smartphones were only effecting P&S. Now, we see it's effect on mirrorless. The low-end DSLR market is next.

The concept of photography in society has changed to be so much more, but these camera makers have been only focused on improving the equipment that captures the image. It's not enough. Nikon has publicly said it is working on a project that they hope will change the concept of photography, but they should have started it 5 years ago. If they end up simply incorporating concepts from smartphone photography, it will not be enough. There are so many companies working on changing the societal definition of photography outside of these camera makers, and they're all doing it in the mobile space. There's more resources being put to work at those companies than all of these camera makers combined.

There will always be a market for professional and enthusiasts so DSLRs and mirrorless will survive. It will just be a significantly smaller industry. For my part, I chose NEX, which is always on the bleeding edge so even if the mirrorless market shrinks and updates comes slower, my NEX will stay relevant for much longer.



Aug 09, 2013 at 08:36 PM
itai195
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p.1 #16 · p.1 #16 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


Tariq Gibran wrote:
The problem would appear to be profitability. It doesn't sound like Nikon is willing or able to pull a Sony (attempt to buy market share by giving away cameras). Selling ultra cheap V1's with the outside chance they will find a huge base of customers like you who will spend a lot on fast glass for their small sensor camera is probably not going to work (Nikon's data seems to suggest anyway).


How profitable is the 1 system compared to Nikon's lower end APS-C DSLRs? I suspect the problem has more to do with fear of cannibalization. The 1 system seems like either a really conservative play or a giant miscalculation on Nikon's part. Too expensive for consumers, too under-featured for enthusiasts. Its major advantage – AF performance – is great but really just a fleeting technological advantage that its competitors can and will copy.



Aug 09, 2013 at 08:39 PM
Tariq Gibran
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p.1 #17 · p.1 #17 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


itai195 wrote:
How profitable is the 1 system compared to Nikon's lower end APS-C DSLRs? I suspect the problem has more to do with fear of cannibalization.


Fear of cannibalization does not appear to be the issue but rather a sales volume reduction of 550,000, mostly attributed to the Nikon 1 system.

The only way Nikon is moving the Nikon 1 is by giving it away (likely at a loss or near a loss) so it's not profitable at all compared to Nikon's lower end, entry level APS-C DSLR's (which is where Nikon intends to put even more resources).

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08/08/nikon-cuts-2013-sales-forecast-citing-poor-mirrorless-camera-sales



Aug 09, 2013 at 11:24 PM
Craig Gillette
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p.1 #18 · p.1 #18 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


I wonder how much of these sale gyrations reflect response to the earthquake/flooding. that must have reduced sales for a period, then they'd jump, then fall off again after pent-up demand was eased. However, I think the Nikon 1 system missed it's target or it's target wasn't interested?


Aug 10, 2013 at 03:13 AM
Keith B.
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p.1 #19 · p.1 #19 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


DSLR market is nearing saturation; point and shoots are being replaced with phone cams; there are NO professional mirrorless cameras yet--too many limitations: some have excellent image quality, but the handling/ergos/interfaces are amateur at best, pathetic at worst. Mirrorless could be good, but it'll have to work as well as a D800 or 5D3.



Aug 10, 2013 at 08:01 AM
sflxn
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p.1 #20 · p.1 #20 · Nikon 1-series slowdown and downturn of mirrorless cameras?


The fall in the Nikon 1 sales is not isolated to Nikon. Thom Hogan has a bunch of articles on his blog with numbers and charts. It's very sobering. Of all the camera makers, Nikon is the only one that breaks down sales by category. Anyway, it appears Nikon and Canon might retreat from the US mirrorless market. A total of about 10k mirrorless cameras were shipped to the US in June. Apparently, sales of mirrorless in the US are a fraction of sales to Europe, Asia, or Japan. With numbers like these, you gotta wonder how much money Olympus, Panasonic, and Fuji are losing in the US since nearly all their sales comes from mirrorless.


Aug 10, 2013 at 08:45 AM
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