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Archive 2013 · Adobe and the cloud!
  
 
butchM
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p.2 #1 · p.2 #1 · Adobe and the cloud!


Luta13 wrote:
I respect your opinion Butch, but just dont agree. Every industry wants a subscription based model nowadays. Why? Because it leads to more predictable revenue streams and doesnt make you so dependent upon the sale of one item. Every industry from manufacturing to aviation to music to financial services has their own form of pay-as-you-go subscription model and every business is looking to do this.
Products today have a higher service component than products from past decades. This is often referred to as the Servitization of Products. Virtually every product today has a service component to it.
Its everywhere. I dont
...Show more

I don't disagree that this is where the industry and the economy is going ... I don't necessarily dislike the concept of a subscription plan for the software I use ... however ... the decision making executives and the marketing department at Adobe really dropped the ball on CC ... when eight out of ten of your traditional customers aren't signing up ... you screwed up in a major fashion ... that's significant lost revenue. Needlessly so.

I still say, if the CC model, as it is presented today, were all it is touted to be ... there would have been such a stampede to sign up, perpetual licensing could have been dropped due to a lack of interest.



Jul 15, 2013 at 09:08 PM
chez
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p.2 #2 · p.2 #2 · Adobe and the cloud!


butchM wrote:
That's not quite the case ... considering that Adobe went to the no more than one generation back upgrade policy ... users could no longer skip a cycle, if they did, they had to pay full price to upgrade ... then up until the May MAX announcement, their plan was to offer new perpetual versions of CS every 12 months, in fact more than a few users were fully expecting to buy CS7 only a year after CS6 was released ... yes, there was a tradition of 18 month cycles in the past ... but Adobe were planning otherwise before
...Show more

I guess time will tell all. If in a few years time Adobe still is continuing with the CC model, they have a success on their hands. If we see them go back to their original model, or some form of it, then they have a failed experiment.

I do believe they will release a stripped down version of PS, maybe a migrated Lightroom, if for nothing but to attract newcomers to their more advanced CC subscription.

Speculating today on Adobes demise is just water cooler talk.



Jul 15, 2013 at 11:38 PM
Eyeball
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p.2 #3 · p.2 #3 · Adobe and the cloud!


It is clear that Adobe and many other software companies are trying to move to a subscription model. What is not so clear is:
- if this will be in the best interests of the majority of their customers
- if this will allow those same companies to "get lazier" where innovation and software improvements are concerned - particularly in cases like Adobe's where the software developer has a very dominant place in the marketplace. This seems likely since the very reason that companies are flocking to this model is because they know it is getting more difficult for them to show value in maturing products.

It is true that companies are also moving more to "services" instead of just software, but where Adobe broke new ground was in the forced jump to the subscription model when their "cloud" services are still very immature. The minor cloud services that are included in Adobe CC (settings sync, relatively small amount of cloud storage, online photo gallery, etc.), other companies are providing for free.

From a pure numbers perspective for Adobe, the CC scheme makes a lot of sense. The execs know they will lose customers, particularly those that have bought Adobe products in the past and are seeing a good portion of that investment erased with the CC plan. They expect to recover those lost customers, however, with new customers who are attracted by what seems at first to be a low monthly fee. Most of the multi-license media business shops will stick around since they need to stay current, their software outlays are practically regular payments anyway, they probably see a slight decrease in cost if they're using most of the "Master Suite", and they probably have enough clout to negotiate better pricing should they ever feel the need to.

I think the biggest loss for the smaller customers was losing the ability to "vote with their wallets" when new versions came out. That was partially removed when Adobe tightened up the upgrade requirements but now that has been bolstered with the threat of disabling the software once you stop paying. Adobe has truly joined the likes of cable tv and mobile phone companies in terms of business model - limited competition and onerous long-term contracts with little motivation for innovation, customer service, and competitive pricing.

Of course there are tons of people who have no problem paying for cable tv and long-term cell phone contracts. History seems to show that if you spread payments out enough, people will pay for just about anything - lotteries and sales tax included.





Jul 15, 2013 at 11:51 PM
Luta13
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p.2 #4 · p.2 #4 · Adobe and the cloud!


Eyeball wrote:
It is clear that Adobe and many other software companies are trying to move to a subscription model. What is not so clear is:
- if this will be in the best interests of the majority of their customers
- if this will allow those same companies to "get lazier" where innovation and software improvements are concerned - particularly in cases like Adobe's where the software developer has a very dominant place in the marketplace. This seems likely since the very reason that companies are flocking to this model is because they know it is getting more difficult for them to show
...Show more

Well said.

To a new hobby photographer....no matter how you slice it...Photoshop and Bridge are yours for $19 a month with all the upgrades and Adobe tutorials, etc....beats the sh*t out of $699 when your looking to build your lens collection...

PS I'm playing devils advocate here. I do understand and get the gripe for those that have paid full-boat in years past. But, its not going to be removed from your PC. Maybe something better comes this way if Adobe screws the pooch with this...who knows...



Jul 16, 2013 at 01:43 AM
Mr Mouse
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p.2 #5 · p.2 #5 · Adobe and the cloud!


butchM wrote:
That's not quite the case ... considering that Adobe went to the no more than one generation back upgrade policy ... users could no longer skip a cycle, if they did, they had to pay full price to upgrade ... then up until the May MAX announcement, their plan was to offer new perpetual versions of CS every 12 months, in fact more than a few users were fully expecting to buy CS7 only a year after CS6 was released ... yes, there was a tradition of 18 month cycles in the past ... but Adobe were planning otherwise before
...Show more

Never happened before every update went into effect Adobe change its mind stated CS6 was the last no more update and announced CC. What will the do next??







Jul 16, 2013 at 02:37 AM
butchM
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p.2 #6 · p.2 #6 · Adobe and the cloud!


Mr Mouse wrote:
Never happened before every update went into effect Adobe change its mind stated CS6 was the last no more update and announced CC.



That's what I said ... on May 5, 2013 the world was under the impression there would be a CS7 ... on May 6, 2013 ... that all changed.

... What will the do next?? ...

That is what has made so many users leery of signing up for CC ... It may be an "affordable" deal now ... but it all could change in a heartbeat once they have you locked in.



Jul 16, 2013 at 01:10 PM
butchM
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p.2 #7 · p.2 #7 · Adobe and the cloud!


Luta13 wrote:
To a new hobby photographer....no matter how you slice it...Photoshop and Bridge are yours for $19 a month with all the upgrades and Adobe tutorials, etc....beats the sh*t out of $699 when your looking to build your lens collection...



That analogy has been shared frequently over the past many weeks ... I still find it interesting that folks who are paying thousands for cameras, lenses, computers and all the assorted accessories take issue with paying $700 for software ... First, if you couldn't "afford" Photoshop prior to CC ... you very likely didn't need it ... Secondly, if you didn't have the self-dicipline to set aside the cash each month as savings to purchase a perpetual license in the past ... you likely won't have the means or desire to pay a monthly stipend to Adobe in perpetuity either ...

Renting ... may appear more affordable on the surface, but in general terms, the end user always pays much more than if they had purchased the item outright ... not to mention, there is zero equity involved for your investment ...

* Please note, I used the term - "you" in a general sense, metaphorically, not relating to anyone specifically *



Jul 16, 2013 at 01:28 PM
chez
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p.2 #8 · p.2 #8 · Adobe and the cloud!


butchM wrote:
That analogy has been shared frequently over the past many weeks ... I still find it interesting that folks who are paying thousands for cameras, lenses, computers and all the assorted accessories take issue with paying $700 for software ... First, if you couldn't "afford" Photoshop prior to CC ... you very likely didn't need it ... Secondly, if you didn't have the self-dicipline to set aside the cash each month as savings to purchase a perpetual license in the past ... you likely won't have the means or desire to pay a monthly stipend to Adobe in perpetuity either
...Show more

Everything you say is true until you bring human nature into the picture. Why do you think there is such a large credit crisis on hand. We all want something today and don't want to save up for it until we can afford it. We typically use credit cards to purchase today and then pay monthly payments on that credit so we can enjoy our purchases RIGHT NOW.

That goes the same with Photoshop. Given the choice of paying $19 a month today and using photoshop today over saving for say 3 years to purchase photoshop outright...most people will choose the $19 / month plan and start enjoying their purchases today.



Jul 16, 2013 at 02:38 PM
butchM
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p.2 #9 · p.2 #9 · Adobe and the cloud!


chez wrote:
...most people will choose the $19 / month plan and start enjoying their purchases today.


My point exactly ... they will enjoy it today ... but can they maintain supporting the model indefinitely? Just as in maxing out your credit card and only paying the minimum each month for endless periods ... I have a feeling these new customers won't be around for the long haul ... Hence my reference to self-discipline in managing expenditures ... I'm curious to see how many will have the will to be around supporting a CC subscription a decade from now ...



Jul 16, 2013 at 03:46 PM
Mr Mouse
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p.2 #10 · p.2 #10 · Adobe and the cloud!


I've been using Photoshop for some time now. Started with PS3 went to PS5 skipped PS 6 and then PS 7.

I did not use much of Photoshop till I retired in 2002 around the time I upgraded to PS 7. I then started to use many more features of Photoshop and eagerly upgraded to CS to get ACR and not have to pay to the ACR fro PS 7 which had some cost involved. I started creating actions a became good at.

I upgraded to CS2 I wanted to pass info to action but could not I even tried Photoshop scripting.

When I upgraded to CS3 I discovered that Adobe had added Plug-in support to Photoshop Scripting. So I did some plug-in script so I could have actions pass setting to plug-in scripts. I had a minor problem with CS3 but all the good stuff Adobe put into Photoshop and ACR out weighed the problem.

I skipped CS4 for I knew there would be problems for Adobe was adding GPU support. Anytime you have to support new hardware from many vendors with different device driver implementations there are bound to be problems.

In the CS4 time frame I started getting some bug report that some of my actions and scripts were failing.

When I upgraded to CS5 I discovered Adobe had introduced a couple of serious bugs in CS4 which I found in CS5. I reported these to Adobe Support and they accepted the were bugs but deferred fixing them to some future release. Adobe also made some scripting changes to the Plun-in support in CS3 which required some code updating on my part. However Adobe bugs meant that actions that added layers may fail if users changes some of Adobe default setting.

When CS6 was released I call Adobe and Adobe told me they fixed the Bugs in CS6 so I paid for CS6. Not only had they not fixed the bugs they added so many new one that CS6 was unusable. It was failing and crashing all over the place.

Five months later Adobe released the first CS6 update they claim fixed 506 core issues. How does 506 core issues get released in product code. Adobe has fix more after the frist update but they did not fix a new scripting bug they added in CS6 that I reported. They also have not fixed the CS4 bugs I have been trying to get fixed for over three years. I even received e-mail from an Adobe programmer stating he has been assigned the task of fixing those CS4 bugs. He has since crawled back into the woodwork, Adobe has also told me they have fixed that CS6 scripting bug I reported in the subscription CS6 and may think about putting in into CS6. Since then Adobe had released Photoshop Version 14 CC into the cloud.

From the out-side it looks like Adobe may have done a better job testing CC then they did testing CS6. I only see 122 bugs reports for CC compared 1441 for CS6.
http://feedback.photoshop.com/photoshop_family/searches?query=cc&style=problem
http://feedback.photoshop.com/photoshop_family/searches?query=CS6&style=problem

No Cloud for me now Adobe can add bugs anytime and update you install with them automatically. No Thank You. No Thanks ....



Jul 16, 2013 at 11:43 PM
 

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Dave_EP
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p.2 #11 · p.2 #11 · Adobe and the cloud!


Mr Mouse wrote:
No Cloud for me now Adobe can add bugs anytime and update you install with them automatically. No Thank You. No Thanks ....



I don't like the cloud, I've made that clear in the past, but the one thing I do know is that the cloud does NOT force automatic updates on you, so let's nip that one in the bud here and now. The updates are notified as 'available' just like they've always done and it's up to you if you want to update or not.

Even so, Im not renting my tools.



Jul 17, 2013 at 11:44 AM
ebiggs
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p.2 #12 · p.2 #12 · Adobe and the cloud!


butchM wrote:
Adobe really dropped the ball on CC ... when eight out of ten of your traditional customers aren't signing up ... you screwed up in a major fashion ... that's significant lost revenue. Needlessly so.


Where did you get 8 out of 10 didn't go for it? From all I have read says Adobe is doing quite well and actually has an increase. The stock didn't go up by $10 bucks because they "screwed" up.
8 out of 10 is what I wish had happened but hardly think so.



Jul 17, 2013 at 01:12 PM
Mr Mouse
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p.2 #13 · p.2 #13 · Adobe and the cloud!


Dave_EP wrote:
I do know is that the cloud does NOT force automatic updates on you, so let's nip that one in the bud here and now. The updates are notified as 'available' just like they've always done and it's up to you if you want to update or not.



Here is the rub. If you see a notification and it sound good. If you install it is there any way to back out the update if it turns out to be bad without having to restore to a previous backup or checkpoint. A backup or restorepoint may also back-out other things you installed on you systems after you installed the Adobe CC update.



Jul 17, 2013 at 04:53 PM
butchM
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p.2 #14 · p.2 #14 · Adobe and the cloud!


ebiggs wrote:
Where did you get 8 out of 10 didn't go for it? From all I have read says Adobe is doing quite well and actually has an increase. The stock didn't go up by $10 bucks because they "screwed" up.
8 out of 10 is what I wish had happened but hardly think so.


It's simple mathematics using Adobe's very own numbers ... Adobe MAX Briefing



On May 6, 2013 Adobe shared they had 4.1 million CS6 perpetual licensed suite installs ... 4.3 million CS6 individual point product perpetual license installs ... that's 8.4 million total traditional Adobe CS customers who were using the current version available to them ... yet only 700,000 CC subscribers as of the last reporting ... only 500,000 CC users when customers had an option for a perpetual license ... Keep in mind, CS 6 had only been available for just under a calendar year when these numbers were shared.

If you do the math ... 700,000 CC subscribers is 8.3% (which is less than one in ten) of the total traditional CS6 users and ignores the other 4 million Adobe users who are using CS5 and older suites and individual apps ... even if Adobe matches their own goal to have roughly 1.5 million subscribers for the first 12 months of a CC only model to upgrade ... that is still only 17.9% of their total traditional perpetual license holders ... or less than one in five signing up ... or 8 out of 10 not making the move ...

While Adobe did increase the number of CC subscribers in the recent quarter ... the increase is on par with their very own projections ... not an unexpected or significant increase over expectations ... heck, they don't plan to surpass 3 million CC subscribers until very late in 2015 ...



Jul 17, 2013 at 06:17 PM
Dave_EP
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p.2 #15 · p.2 #15 · Adobe and the cloud!


Mr Mouse wrote:
Here is the rub. If you see a notification and it sound good. If you install it is there any way to back out the update if it turns out to be bad without having to restore to a previous backup or checkpoint. A backup or restorepoint may also back-out other things you installed on you systems after you installed the Adobe CC update.


While I don't disagree with you, I've learned not to rush to be the first one to update *anything* Adobe makes. There are so many problems being reported in CC that I wonder when / if they'll ever get things straight.

Not only am I not renting my tools as a principle, I'm certainly not in the least bit interested in renting 'buggy' tools!



Jul 17, 2013 at 06:53 PM
DanBrown
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p.2 #16 · p.2 #16 · Adobe and the cloud!


Dave_EP wrote:
There are so many problems being reported in CC that I wonder when / if they'll ever get things straight.


Can you point to a site where these many problems are being reported?




Jul 17, 2013 at 07:38 PM
Dave_EP
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p.2 #17 · p.2 #17 · Adobe and the cloud!


DanBrown wrote:
Can you point to a site where these many problems are being reported?


http://forums.adobe.com

There is a different forum for pretty much each product plus a couple of extras like hardware etc. It's also a great place to get help if you are stuck with things. Note this is not officially monitored by Adobe and while employees do look in from time to time they are not always the ones responsible for getting fixes on that particular product.



Jul 17, 2013 at 08:20 PM
Luta13
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p.2 #18 · p.2 #18 · Adobe and the cloud!


butchM wrote:
It's simple mathematics using Adobe's very own numbers ... Adobe MAX Briefing

On May 6, 2013 Adobe shared they had 4.1 million CS6 perpetual licensed suite installs ... 4.3 million CS6 individual point product perpetual license installs ... that's 8.4 million total traditional Adobe CS customers who were using the current version available to them ... yet only 700,000 CC subscribers as of the last reporting ... only 500,000 CC users when customers had an option for a perpetual license ... Keep in mind, CS 6 had only been available for just under a calendar year when these numbers were shared.

If
...Show more

Butch- Respectfully, you are not understanding the roll-out of this program at all. Of course nobody with a current perfectly good version of a CS product is going to immediately convert. Nobody that is happy with the software on their machine, that feels no compelling need to change, or doesn't need an additional product in the suite is going to run out and subscribe.
'8 out of 10 not making the move' means nothing (actually, i'ts quite successful for a new subscription based model rollout). They don't expect current users to run out and and join CC without a need.
You are trying to extrapolate a negative from Adobe's numbers and they simply aren't negative numbers if you understand Adobe's plan with this rollout.
This is a long term plan. The fact that they added 250K CC subscribers Q2 has pleased Adobe and its shareholders.



Jul 18, 2013 at 12:11 PM
ebiggs
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p.2 #19 · p.2 #19 · Adobe and the cloud!


You beat me to it.
You can make figures say whatever you want them to. The bottom line is Adobe is doing quite well and it most likely means there will be no retreat. I am sure they did and have a market research study that fairly well predicted how it would go.
In this case, it was right on.
I wsh his numbers were valid but alas, I don't think so.



Jul 18, 2013 at 01:43 PM
butchM
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p.2 #20 · p.2 #20 · Adobe and the cloud!


Luta13 wrote:
Butch- Respectfully, you are not understanding the roll-out of this program at all. Of course nobody with a current perfectly good version of a CS product is going to immediately convert. Nobody that is happy with the software on their machine, that feels no compelling need to change, or doesn't need an additional product in the suite is going to run out and subscribe.
'8 out of 10 not making the move' means nothing (actually, i'ts quite successful for a new subscription based model rollout). They don't expect current users to run out and and join CC without a need.
You
...Show more

Then how do you explain the sales of over 8 million perpetual licenses of CS6 suites and individual apps in less than the first 12 months of availability? Those license holders upgraded from CS5 and CS5.5 due to Adobe's one version back upgrade policy.

They don't expect current users to run out and and join CC without a need.

Prior to the May 6 announcement, Adobe not only "expected" CS6 users to upgrade to CS7 ... it was "compelled" they do so or would have had to pay full price for CS8 if they failed to adopt CS7. With the introduction of CS6 you could no longer skip a generation. You don't think they would have matched similar numbers for CS7 sales if it existed? Yes 200k new subscribers is a good number ... but only matched their projection ... not exceeding expectations ... Even with meeting expectations ... Adobe is going to experience a significant drop in revenue for 2013 compared to 2012. After July 31 when the incentive discounts for CC expire for perpetual license holders ... we'll see better how the adoption rate growth will be.

ebiggs wrote:
You beat me to it.
You can make figures say whatever you want them to. The bottom line is Adobe is doing quite well and it most likely means there will be no retreat. I am sure they did and have a market research study that fairly well predicted how it would go.
In this case, it was right on.
I wsh his numbers were valid but alas, I don't think so.


Invalid? they are Adobe's numbers ... not mine ... you may disagree with my interpretation of the numbers ... but I gave a link to the source of the numbers earlier ... if they are invalid that is an issue to direct to Adobe ... not me.

I've been a self-employed sole proprietor for over 38 years ... I may not be a CPA or have revenue in the volume measured by billions ... but I can observe and relate to the numbers ... the revenues Adobe is expecting for 2013 as it relates to customers purchasing or renting software will be significantly less than they earned for 2012.



Jul 18, 2013 at 04:40 PM
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