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Archive 2013 · D400 in 2014 or Bust
  
 
Kerry Pierce
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p.9 #1 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Mishu01 wrote:
I personally have bigger faith that instead of a D300 upgrade Nikon will launch a real D700 upgrade. A camera that would be perfect for wedding and event photographers that are not able or willing to pay the big $$$ for D4. With better buffer and speed, this D700 upgrade will also collect most of those crying after D400. At this time Nikon seems to like "crop in camera" mode... and maybe they will improve this a little bit in future.


I've seen others that believe as you do, but when asked, they can't figure out how to justify another $3000 US FX camera, especially one that would certainly kill D4 sales to all but the most diehard pro body users and companies. The FX market segment is finite, around 10% of the total DSLR market. Only so many people are willing/able to spend $3k+ US on a camera body. Do you really think that Nikon would release a high speed, high performance FX camera into that market, and watch it eat into the sales of the d800(e) and the d4?

Seems to me that it is quite obvious that Nikon didn't want to make another pairing like they did with the d3/d700. They didn't do it with either the d3s or the d4. Instead, the d800 sure looks like the d700 upgrade to me. The only real difference between the d800 and "a real d700 replacement" is the buffer and FPS.

OTOH, the competition for a TOL DX camera is slim. Only Canon makes a competing model. The d400 wouldn't compete with any FX cameras and would only compete with the d7100 on the DX side, while providing a much better profit margin than the d7100.

The way I see it, they have upgraded the d3 and the d700, but they still sell the d300s and have yet to offer a new DX camera with its price point and features. Why they haven't made a d400 or will they make one, I don't know. But, I'd be willing to wager a couple hundred that they will release a d300 replacement long before they will release a "real d700 upgrade".

Personally, I'd be more than happy to buy a d400 to pair with either my d800 and/or d3s.

Kerry



Jul 18, 2013 at 09:19 PM
theSuede
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p.9 #2 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Better profit margin than the D7100? How?

The D7100 shared a LOT of its' development costs, and almost everything in the logic circuits with the mid-tier D5200. I've no doubt the margins on the D7100 are pretty good.

To get BETTER margins on a D400, with twice or four times the buffer memory, upgraded card controllers and faster bus speeds, and a more expensive mechanical base (10fps mirror mechanism is a LOT more expensive than a 5fps mirror...) It would have to cost well north of 2500USD.



Jul 18, 2013 at 11:19 PM
Andre Labonte
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p.9 #3 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


theSuede wrote:
Better profit margin than the D7100? How?

The D7100 shared a LOT of its' development costs, and almost everything in the logic circuits with the mid-tier D5200. I've no doubt the margins on the D7100 are pretty good.

To get BETTER margins on a D400, with twice or four times the buffer memory, upgraded card controllers and faster bus speeds, and a more expensive mechanical base (10fps mirror mechanism is a LOT more expensive than a 5fps mirror...) It would have to cost well north of 2500USD.


*****************

I doubt that as the D400 would take a lot from the D800 in terms of the body and the D7100 in terms of the sensor. The only real extra costs are the buffer (memory is cheap) and the integration. Over-all profit margin would be similar with the D400 in the $1800 to $2000 range.



Jul 18, 2013 at 11:39 PM
Frogfish
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p.9 #4 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


theSuede wrote:
Better profit margin than the D7100? How?

The D7100 shared a LOT of its' development costs, and almost everything in the logic circuits with the mid-tier D5200. I've no doubt the margins on the D7100 are pretty good.

To get BETTER margins on a D400, with twice or four times the buffer memory, upgraded card controllers and faster bus speeds, and a more expensive mechanical base (10fps mirror mechanism is a LOT more expensive than a 5fps mirror...) It would have to cost well north of 2500USD.


I would imagine a lot of the R&D work done on the 7100 & D800 could be implemented at a much lower cost than starting from scratch. We are also assuming that Nikon did not deliberately neuter the 7100 to provide breathing space for the D400 which would be a logical marketing ploy.
It would not surprise me in the slightest (in fact I expect it) if the cost was ca. US$2,500 for the most advanced DX on the planet which will sell well to both amateurs and pros. Whatever margins they work on, and it is margins and not absolutes, then a more expensive camera will logically always equal a higher absolute profit per unit. Whether that translates into a higher overall profit for the model I'd assume not, considering the quantities in which the 7100 sells, that said the demand for a DX model with the specs being touted does seem to be very high judging from forums (which I know can sometimes be misleading).



Jul 18, 2013 at 11:52 PM
WestcoastHD
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p.9 #5 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


I think most people agree that Nikon has an edge in the sensor department, but decided that 24 MP was more important than buffer size or FPS. Canon seems to have taken a more middle ground approach with 18-20 MP sensors and is willing to include decent frame rates and buffers. If Nikon doesn't want the pro DX market, I am sure Canon's is willing to take some of it with the next 7D MII.


Jul 20, 2013 at 12:36 AM
Andre Labonte
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p.9 #6 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


WestcoastHD wrote:
I think most people agree that Nikon has an edge in the sensor department, but decided that 24 MP was more important than buffer size or FPS. Canon seems to have taken a more middle ground approach with 18-20 MP sensors and is willing to include decent frame rates and buffers. If Nikon doesn't want the pro DX market, I am sure Canon's is willing to take some of it with the next 7D MII.



That's what I'm afraid of ...



Jul 20, 2013 at 12:50 AM
iglass
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p.9 #7 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


The problem with the D400 is this, IMHO...

At the current time, Nikon has a fairly inelastic customer set. By this, I mean that the most likely purchaser of a D400 is ALREADY a Nikon customer. Any D400 sale is in effect cannibalizing sales from other cameras already in their lineup, with production underway and design complete. The amount of professional and "higher grade" photographers who are willing to jump ship from Canon (or whoever) to Nikon on the basis of the advantages a D400 can bring is relatively very small IMHO.

OTOH, a lot of Nikon shooters have been waiting a looooong time for a D300/300s replacement. Then it becomes a marketing decision from Nikon - push out a D400 or hope that the needs of those shooters are met with the cameras on the fringes of the D400 position. IMHO, at this point, Nikon believes that those cameras just above and below the D400 perceived position are "good enough", better or equivalent to Canon offerings, and at competitive price points. Again, just my opinion... but the tsunami and floods really impacted not only the ability to BUILD a D400, but also the entire reasoning process behind supplying a camera in that position in their lineup.

Finally, I think I want in a D400 what most shooters want... I love my D300. Great camera. Rugged, fast, dependable. A real workhorse. For all the 400k frames I have put through mine, I have barely scratched the true technical capabilities of it. So here's what I want, using the D300 as a baseline:

- a very modest bump in MP, 16-24 is plenty good enough, buffer size as appropriate
- dual card slots, LOVE this feature on my D7000 - but make them the SAME
- video - meh, can take it or leave it but I understand why they do this
- ISO performance to match that of the D800 (just cut that sensor in half!)
- keep the price reasonable so that I don't have to sell my first born male child

That's it. IMHO the 51 pt autofocus from the D7100 would be plenty good enough, no need to re-invent that wheel. There is no great technological advance on ergonomics, body ruggedness, or body protection and seals that is earth shattering. Heck, they could JUST improve ISO performance up to the D800 levels and sell a truckload on that one feature improvement alone.



Jul 20, 2013 at 04:31 PM
MercuryPhotog
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p.9 #8 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Apparently, a few big time pros are testing a new unreleased Nikon body. D400? Probably.

If they don't come through and Canon releases a 7D MKII there will be many who head over there. I'd probably grab one and the new 200-400 and not look back.



Jul 20, 2013 at 05:23 PM
ckcarr
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p.9 #9 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Source?


Jul 20, 2013 at 06:44 PM
snapsy
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p.9 #10 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


MercuryPhotog wrote:
Apparently, a few big time pros are testing a new unreleased Nikon body. D400? Probably.

If they don't come through and Canon releases a 7D MKII there will be many who head over there. I'd probably grab one and the new 200-400 and not look back.


A well respected photographer at dpreview says it's the D4x: http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/51804476



Jul 20, 2013 at 07:15 PM
 

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Kerry Pierce
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p.9 #11 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


theSuede wrote:
Better profit margin than the D7100? How?

The D7100 shared a LOT of its' development costs, and almost everything in the logic circuits with the mid-tier D5200. I've no doubt the margins on the D7100 are pretty good.

To get BETTER margins on a D400, with twice or four times the buffer memory, upgraded card controllers and faster bus speeds, and a more expensive mechanical base (10fps mirror mechanism is a LOT more expensive than a 5fps mirror...) It would have to cost well north of 2500USD.


While I agree that a 10fps mirror and associated parts is more expensive than 5, I don't know where you came up with 10fps. The d300 series had a max of 8fps and the grip with special batteries was required to make that fps rate. Seems to me that most folks wanting a d400 expect it to perform the same as the d300, just with a better sensor.

10fps would put the camera with the d3/d4 performance. My d3s has a max fps rate of 11, for example. The typical d300 user isn't going to want to pay even d800 prices for a d400, so it is reasonable to assume that the d400 will trade fps for lower cost, just as the d300 did.

The added profits from the d300 grip needed for 8fps, made a significant difference, IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same requirements for the d400. The wimpy el15 battery of today's cameras isn't as high voltage as the el3 battery of the d300, 7.0 volts vs 7.4 volts. The el18 D4 battery would likely be needed for a high fps d400, is 10.8 volts. I use the d3 el4 battery in my d300/d700 to get 8fps and it is an 11.1 volt battery.

Memory is cheap, so the big buffer doesn't cost much. Most of the rest of the R&D would come from the d800 and d4. The mirror box and higher speed components would certainly cost more, but you're also talking about a $600 difference MSRP between the d7100 and d400. I assume a d400 MSRP to be the same as the d300 was, $1800 US. That's a lot of room for profits. The d300 was a record selling camera. No reason, IMO, to believe the d400 wouldn't do likewise.

Kerry

I forgot to mention that a DX mirror box is much cheaper and easier to hit high FPS rates than with FX. Same for the shutter. That is a significant difference in cost and size.



Jul 20, 2013 at 08:48 PM
RRRoger
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p.9 #12 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


A new development is the 240 MBs SDXC card that Toshiba will be releasing soon.
This could significantly speed up all Nikon DSLRs since the V1.
The new cards use exFAT like the SanDisk 64GB SDXC card (95MBs).
It could also allow in-camera 2/4k Video recording.

A revised D400 design might have been delayed to implement this and other developments.

I would not be interested in a D400 for it's DX sensor,
but I am very interested in a truly advanced HDSLR.

Edited on Jul 20, 2013 at 10:22 PM · View previous versions



Jul 20, 2013 at 10:19 PM
BlueBomberTurbo
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p.9 #13 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Yup, Thom Hogan mentioned this on Twitter the other day. Could easily sustain 24MP bursts at high frame rates. 4K would be just be the icing on the cake.


Jul 20, 2013 at 10:20 PM
RRRoger
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p.9 #14 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


BlueBomberTurbo wrote:
Yup, Thom Hogan mentioned this on Twitter the other day. Could easily sustain 24MP bursts at high frame rates. 4K would be just be the icing on the cake.


Do you think he is referring to a D400 or D4x?

My guess is a D400 with dual SDXC card slots.
I would expect a D4x to use dual XQD cards.



Jul 20, 2013 at 10:41 PM
BlueBomberTurbo
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p.9 #15 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


D400. He's pretty sure it will be announced sometime next month. My poor wallet!


Jul 20, 2013 at 10:46 PM
Andre Labonte
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p.9 #16 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


For all my desire to see a D400, I could not afford it right now anyway ... not after building a new house and moving ... but then again, my D300 works fine for the moment and I could get a D400 next year after the price drop.



Jul 20, 2013 at 11:02 PM
m.sommers00
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p.9 #17 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


So in the (very) off chance this comes to fruition, does Nikon typically make their announcements at a particular time of the month?


Jul 28, 2013 at 06:55 AM
james.d53
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p.9 #18 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


m.sommers00 wrote:
So in the (very) off chance this comes to fruition, does Nikon typically make their announcements at a particular time of the month?


I hope soon, because I nee a backup body!



Jul 29, 2013 at 02:15 AM
hans98ko
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p.9 #19 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Will there be a Pro DX camera by the name of D400? Yes and Nope!

Yes!
Because there ďWASĒ a camera by the name of D400 with an APS-C sensor just before the 2011 Japanese tsunami and flood in Thailand.
But the tsunami and flood have basically destroyed all the development and test equipment in Japan and the production equipment and tools in Thailand.
In order to replace those equipment and tools, they will have to inject new capital and will take them another 6 to 9 months to get it up and running. Capital that are limited because newer and later products like the D4 and D800/E are also being affected. And time that they do not have because newer products are being released into the market by competitors and technology continue to advance.
To go ahead with the plan is pointless and suicidal because the product is already obsoleted before its release.

Nope!
Because as a certified ISO 9000 auditor and a senior executive who have being involved in numerous international projects including those of imaging, I would say it is impossible to ďREUSEĒ the D400 model name and those part numbers that were already assigned to this project that were listed in the original Bill of Materials (BOM).
It will need a new model number and probably lots of new part numbers to upgrade the D400 product that will affect the BOM dramatically.
Remember the D400 was already at a very advance stage and close to its release at that time, so the model and part numbers have already being assigned, documented and kept at the Central Data Control (CDC) or Central Specification Control (CSC) department.

As for a Pro DX body in the form factor of a D200/D300/D300s have past it advantage as a marketing tool as it does 5 years ago. Present dayís technologies and processes have advanced to a level where the yield is much higher and the difference in cost of producing a FX sensor in comparison to the DX is about $25 to $50. Here I am talking about raw material that is silicon which is processed beach sand, and the equipment needed to produce and test them are the same, with just longer test duration. Once again one must not compare the sale price of a FX sensor to the DX sensor with their manufacturing prices, they are taken care of in the product pricing with the FX models commandeering higher prices.

If they can now produce as many FX bodies in comparison to that of the DX in the past, why should they breakup the lines into FX and DX and waste capital, manpower, equipment, advertising and inventory resources?
Why should they have to develop 2 lines of lenses? The FX and DX lines.
What a DX can that a FX canít? The 1.5 crop factor? Nope! One can always shoot DX mode in FX.
What a FX can that a DX canít? Getting the same field of coverage with the same wide angle lens.
Does the view finder looks better in a DX body? Nope! Even using DX crop mode in FX the view finder still looks brighter and better with the 0.7x magnification rather than the 0.9x magnification of the tiny pentaprism.

DX used to command the largest market share, but will all owners buy another DX body? Maybe and maybe not.
But would it be good to get them to buy another body like a FX that they donít already own or maybe even more FX lenses? Definitely will help to increase sales rather than letting them think that they have what they already have.

For those who want the built of a Pro body, the features of a Pro body, the buffer and speed of the Pro body. Well, than you have to pay for the Pro body.
Why should any manufacturer built a low cost body that will compete and take away their Pro body market shares?
The next thing is that allowing people to access to cheap Pro bodies producing poor pictures actually damage the brand more than they assist the brand because they donít take the time to learn to shoot like a Pro. How often we see people carrying a pro body but knew nothing about photography and camera? Just recently, I met a gentleman complaining about the pictures not looking good on his camera that is the same as mine but with an E. And didnít know that there is this thing call AF fine tune, picture control (sharpening, contrast, hue) and WB. HaÖha! He likes my pictures but not his camera, saying he is going to sell his camera. Isnít this bad publicity?

For a true Pro they can produce good results from almost any camera, be it film or digital, FX, DX, MIL, MFD and even P&S at time.
And many of them donít even post any complain on the web, but when they encountered problems their equipment manufacturers always take good care of them even their wishes for future products.

Oh! By the way many of the Pros never heard of or visited Thom Hoganís or Ken Rockwellís websites.
If they have to buy a book or user guide, they would go for the Nikon Press, Magic Lantern or writers like David Bush who alone have sold over a million copies or closer to 2 million with just a few selections of cameras. No BS! No Rumors! No prediction of when a new camera is coming out and he take his own sweet time to write his book rather that rushing a book and then said I canít verify an issue because I donít have a camera to do it or does not support the camera that he wrote about. Who the hell is going to buy a user guide if one does not intend to buy the camera or already own that camera?
No wonder Thom Hogan got so much time to put out these rumors because people like me is not going to buy his books and Nikon is not going to supply him the latest camera to write his books and then let him rescinds his support for that camera.

By the way it is just days from August still not a picture of the mythical D400 other than the Photoshop D300/s with a D400 marking from all websites. I can guaranty you that on the left front side of the all future camera will not have that ridge as in the D200/D300/D700.



Jul 29, 2013 at 06:51 AM
DTOB
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p.9 #20 · D400 in 2014 or Bust


Andre Labonte wrote:
For all my desire to see a D400, I could not afford it right now anyway ... not after building a new house and moving ... but then again, my D300 works fine for the moment and I could get a D400 next year after the price drop.


I can't believe that after all of your moaning for the new camera: "I can't afford it, my D300 works just fine for me".




Jul 29, 2013 at 01:27 PM
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