sflxn Offline Upload & Sell: Off
|
If the price for the new EP-5 or whatever is any indication, they plan to stop losing money by raising prices. The comments about similarity to Kodak is spot on. Today, upheavals are getting quicker and quicker. Kodak had a decade to die. I'm not so sure digicams have that long to disappear. 18% drop in camera sales in 1 year is pretty drastic. Many of the big makers are hedging their bets by starting to maker bridge cameras like the RX1 and X100s, but so far only Fuji has found runaway success, based on what my local camera stores are telling me. The rapid decline in the digicam and PC market is simply breathtaking.
Personally, I see Olympus exiting, along with Samsung. Samsung has enough money to keep it going, but they're not getting any traction. If this decline accelerates, Pentax and Panasonic will be next to go. In 10 years time, the camera business will look a lot different. My predictions:
1) Digicam market will all be aps-c or FF bridge market but will not as big as before. Maybe 5-10% of what digicam market used to be.
2) Canon and Nikon will be the sole DSLR makers, and they be selling only FF models. APS-C disappears from DSLR as mirrorless and bridge cameras do to aps-c dslr what smartphone is doing to digicams. Also, FF will be seen as the only strong differentiator between it and the growing popularity of smartphones.
3) NEX and X will probably be the dominant mirrorless platforms.
4) Medium format shrinks drastically further as scared Canon and Nikon are forced to push further into their territory
5) Even Canon, Nikon, and Sony will not be able to offset the loss of their digicam market. Prices of FF will hit sub-$1000 in an effort to stymie the decline. This effort to push FF down to the masses can already be seen in the 6D and D600. They're just the beginning.
I do worry about Nikon. They rely on cameras for most of their profits. The booming profits days for digital imaging is coming to a close and the squeeze of commoditization is beginning. People didn't believe film or PC or digicams would disappear, but when the trend accelerates, it's brutal. Only $1k FF DSLR can save Canon and Nikon from going the way of medium format. Speaking of which, will Phase One and Hasselblad survive? Can Leica keep selling $7k M and $5k lenses when Canon and Nikon will be selling $900 FF DSLRs? The squeeze in the digicam market does not just affect that market.
|