philber Offline Upload & Sell: Off
|
p.3 #1 · p.3 #1 · Why We All MUST Fight Adobe And Stop The Creative Cloud! | |
There are two different factors here. One is moving over to cloud-based, and the other to rental rather than sale. The two are independent of each other. Adobe just packaged them together so that one would mask the other. Examples? Dropbox, or Google Drive are pure cloud-based software. Are they rental-based? Not the base product, which is free.
OTOH, there is nothing that says that standard software needs to be cloud-based to be rented out. IBM was renting software 50 years ago...
There is also nothing that says that switching from straight sale to renting needs to cost more. It can be done on a revenue-neutral basis.
What hurts is that Adobe are not doing it on a revenue-neutral basis. It is a massive upsale, and a forced one at that.
Will it succeed? My money is that the hard core corporate clients like the advertising world won't jump ship, but, as they were already buying all the upgrades, the revenue upswing won't be that great.
OTOH, the many independents and hobbyists will resist, either by staying with CS5, or by deserting Adove outright.
My guess is that, for them, Adobe's default will be to offer them LightRoom, the capabilities (and price) of which will be enhanced.
Should Adove try the same forced upsale of LightRoom by going cloud-only, the decline must happen, because I don't see much of a hard-core must-use LightRoom use base, Vs a massive hobbyist one.
Overall, Adove is opening a massive window of opportunity for competitors to CS, should there exist a credible one. If I wanted Adobe to listen to its customers' discontent, I wouldn't rant and rage against them, which they knew would happen and doesn't cost them any revenue. I would concentrate on trying out CS alternatives, and post such tryouts all over the Net.
Should the free 30-day downloads of, say, Capture One, skyrocket, it would be a signal Adove couldn't (and wouldn't) miss that things are going south for their latest and greatest. Then the same stock exchange ratings that pushed their share price up would drive it down, and force a change of strategy, with a penalty to boot.
|