That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

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igmolinav
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p.1 #1 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Hi,

Some three weeks ago I was talking to a friend. I was telling him that I was not very sure if I would get a full frame camera like the D600 or D800. I told him that I may just wait one more year, or two, to get next year's new release. He said that next year, and even two and half years down the line is quite unexpected to see new camera modells coming to the market!

I was willing to wait one more year. As I thought I could get something, if not better, cheaper! However, he said that when Nikon and Canon bring such pieces of equipment like the D600 and D800, one may not see any new replacements sooner than in two and half years! Is he right?

Thank you in advance, kind regards,

igmolinav : ) !!!

Nov 22, 2012 at 08:25 PM

Steve Perry
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p.1 #2 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Sometimes - most times - longer than 2 1/2 years.

Nov 22, 2012 at 08:49 PM

ct8282
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p.1 #3 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Yup, you'll be lucky to see a major release in the next 2 to 3 years. The low end consumer stuff maybe.

Nov 22, 2012 at 09:07 PM

scottam10
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p.1 #4 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Yep, it's pretty easy to check the release dates of previous model updates, that should give you an idea of when you can expect the next one.

- you can see the entry level models are refreshed quite regularly, the product cycle is longer for the higher models.

Unfortunately prices don't seem to drop that fast either

Nov 22, 2012 at 09:13 PM

igmolinav
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p.1 #5 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Hi,

It is what this friend, a canon user, was also saying. It took
two and half to three years for his Canon 5D Mark II to get
a refreshment!

So if someone wants to get a full frame camera, perhaps this
is the right moment to do it. That way, one "goes with the
camera cycle!" Perhaps that is the right move(?)!

Thank you, kind regards,

igmolinav : ) !!!

Nov 22, 2012 at 09:21 PM

DTOB
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p.1 #6 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

You could always pick up an amazing D700. It's over 4 years old.

Nov 22, 2012 at 09:24 PM

Kerry Pierce
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p.1 #7 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Personally, I think it's a very good thing that the high end models take several years between model updates. It's already too easy to go broke!

I assume that your friend was speaking strictly about upgrades to the d600 and d800. The d600 has no predecessor and the closest models to the d800 are the 4 year old d700 and the 3 year old d3x.

But, I wouldn't be surprised to see a very high MP camera ( maybe 50mp ) from both Canon and Nikon next year. Nikon already has sensors with the pixel density to make a 56mp camera. Plus, I would expect to see the d300 replacement and probably the d7000 replacement next year, so it's not like there won't be any new models next year.

Personally, I'd love to see the d600 sensor in the d700 body, with all of the features of the d700. I'd probably buy that in a heartbeat, along with a good d300 replacement.

Kerry

Nov 22, 2012 at 09:27 PM

Genes Home
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p.1 #8 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

In general, if you are waiting for "better," I agree with all above.

Check out Thom Hogan's website and drift back through his archive and you will find this http://www.bythom.com/currentdslr.htm, as well as several other charts which show the release process for new cameras and model improvements.

Like others, I am hoping for a D300 replacement, as it seems due as the high end of the DX line. I am afraid all we are going to get is an improved D7000 sometime in the spring...........and that Nikon has abandoned the concept of a high end DX body.

I would love an improved D700 (like Kerry) but it appears that our choices are the D600 or D800 for at least the next two, if not three or four, years.

Gene

Nov 23, 2012 at 01:09 AM

cbreiland
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p.1 #9 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

D7200 as a high speed 'pro' dx body, a D800s with faster frame rates and a 24mp sensor, and a D4x with a 36+MP sensor are the unfilled gaps in the nikon lineup currently in my opinion.

Oh, and a FF V1 would be cool too. Shot selector and that AF system would make a great pro mirrorless.

Nov 23, 2012 at 01:15 AM

brett maxwell
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p.1 #10 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

In the next two years...

There will certainly be new DX bodies.

There will almost certainly not be new FX small bodies.

There will almost certainly be new FX pro bodies (D4s and maybe D4x)

Nov 23, 2012 at 01:34 AM

woos
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p.1 #11 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Full frame bodies last a long long time. There MIGHT be a d4x but honestly, I rather doubt it. D3x didn't sell well. Nikon was insanely smart this way around. The D800 is priced very very well and sells like hotcakes. The D4 is nicely priced as well compared to Canon's offering. Maybe if Canon releases a body with 40+mp Nikon will go 1up them but meh.

There will be DX bodies but meh. The slow release schedule is nice, one of the great things about FX. They hold their value much better.

Nov 23, 2012 at 01:38 AM

Ben Horne
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p.1 #12 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Many of the cameras out there these days are already much better than the photographers who use them.

Nov 23, 2012 at 01:50 AM

EB-1
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p.1 #13 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

It rather sucks becaue what I want does not exist, a D4X-type of body.

EBH

Nov 23, 2012 at 02:03 AM

AndreasE
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p.1 #14 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

I did this chart for last year's "anniversary" of the D1.
Haven't updated it yet, but you can see the sequence of introductions

This image is copyrighted by the owner

rgds,
Andy

Nov 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

campyone
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p.1 #15 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Ben Horne wrote:
Many of the cameras out there these days are already much better than the photographers who use them.

So where can I buy a new photographer? : - )

Nov 23, 2012 at 02:40 PM

Two23
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p.1 #16 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

I'm starting to think the D5100/D7000 series are the best value. By that I mean they have superb performance at a relatively low price. They also seem to get their technology refreshed sooner. That lowers the cost to stay at Nikon's leading edge. And like I always say, I'd rather have two $1,000 cameras than just one $2.000 one.

Kent in SD

Nov 23, 2012 at 05:51 PM

NickHenderson
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p.1 #17 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

There's also a nice timeline on the wiki page, at the bottom:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Nikon_DSLR_cameras

Nov 23, 2012 at 06:29 PM

Mark_L
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p.1 #18 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

The lifecycle of the higher end cameras is getting longer as digital matures and the advancements are getting less, I doubt we will see a D2 era to D3 era step up ever again.

Do you need a camera now or in 4 years?

Nov 23, 2012 at 08:30 PM

colincarter46
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p.1 #19 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Two23 wrote:
I'm starting to think the D5100/D7000 series are the best value. By that I mean they have superb performance at a relatively low price. They also seem to get their technology refreshed sooner. That lowers the cost to stay at Nikon's leading edge. And like I always say, I'd rather have two $1,000 cameras than just one $2.000 one.

Kent in SD

I can honestly see Nikons line up being 3 Dx and 3 Fx bodies

D3200 - lower Dx

D5200 - mid Dx (just got D7000 focusing)

D7100 - high dx as a replacement to D300 and maybe getting D800 / D4 focusing

D600 - entry level Fx

D800 - High resolution FX

D4 - Sports / fast shooting FX

maybe there is room for an ultra high FX (D4 body 56mpixel sensor) but it aint going to be cheap and maybe too close to medium format?

Nov 24, 2012 at 02:17 PM

MarcG19
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p.1 #20 · That's it! No new modells next year ... !!!??

Re: the OP: I would be very surprised if NIkon put out another full frame camera next year. However, I think Nikon will almost certainly release a D7000 upgrade by the spring, and perhaps a D300s upgrade (it would unfortunately behoove Nikon to bring the out the latter first, a la D800/D600)

Mark_L wrote:
The lifecycle of the higher end cameras is getting longer as digital matures and the advancements are getting less, I doubt we will see a D2 era to D3 era step up ever again.

Do you need a camera now or in 4 years?

This.

I'd add the corollary "if you don't really need/want a new camera don't buy one", with again the caveat that Nikon probably won't be doing any new FX bodies for at least two years. IMO, if you want such a thing, the time to get it is now.

From what I've heard even the D3 to D4 step up isn't that big even for its intended sports/journalist/etc pro customers (aside from video). Though these folks probably would have bought a new camera anyway after a few years because they use them so hard.

campyone wrote:
Ben Horne wrote:
Many of the cameras out there these days are already much better than the photographers who use them.

So where can I buy a new photographer? : - )

I'd "buy":

- a photography workshop (for beginners)

- more specialized training (for those with more experience).

- photography books by the greats and reflection on them + more time behind the camera and critical thinking about one's work (for all).

- a Masters of Fine Arts or even just basic art/graphic design courses (for those so inclined).

Another experience on Thom Hogan's resume which adds enormously to my value of his articles, as well as to his credibility, is his time as the editor at Backpacker magazine, and his experience not only with the photography consumption process at the magazine but his effort to improve the mag's photography quality. Not all of us can be in such a position, but just editing a camera club or other organization's newsletter or website can be eye-opening in terms of what works for photography.

Thanks also to Andy for that neat-o chart. I'd note that with this generation, we're really seeing some fragmentation from the previous lineup.

Nov 26, 2012 at 05:51 AM

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