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| p.6 #6 · 46.1 MP Canon EOS-3D X To Be Announced Before PhotoPlus ? |
I have a marketing-related question.
Assume for the sake of argument that Canon is in a bit of bind. The D800 is not only a formidable competitor at a lowish price, it is also tending to freeze upgrade decisions for some photographers who don't even want one. (That includes me; the D800 shows what can happen, and Canon hasn't done it, so I'm sticking with Canon until they do it, but otherwise, not buying any new body Canon shows me.) And maybe Canon doesn't have current access to sensor technology to match the D800. That would be a marketing crisis for Canon.
One possible solution would be to pack 7D resolution onto full frame, and out-pixel Nikon. It sounds like this rumor could be based on that possibility. But how do you market a product like that? Given the choice between 7D image quality writ large, or D800 image quality at an identical price, which would you choose? I think I would take the D800, especially if Nikon fixed the live view. To me that looks like a risky gamble for Canon. If it failed, it could trigger a mass migration of people like me to Nikon.
Canon, I think, might choose to fuzz up the question. They could try to do that by making the new 46MP camera a full-featured high end competitor to the 1Dx—a 1Dxs—and pricing it accordingly. I doubt that is what Canon marketers were planning when they developed the 1Dx. And I think such a camera would risk being stigmatized as a proposed market leader that couldn't lead in the image quality department, or at least not do so with sufficient versatility. If the D800 were perceived as still setting the image quality standard, that would be a disaster for Canon too. They would have created a much more expensive camera that was outperformed in almost every meaningful way by its own sibling—except in the one way it was outperformed by a competitor. What a mess.
Bottom line. Canon faces a crisis if it can not come up with a sensor at least as good as the one in the D800, and a biggified 7D sensor probably can't fill the bill.